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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
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Juventude crestJuventude

Serie B | Sun 09 Aug, 20:00

Novorizontino v Juventude Stats

Data last updated: Sat 08 Aug 2026, 08:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Juventude visiting Novorizontino, with both sides showing contrasting recent form. Juventude sits second in the table with 35 points, edging Novorizontino who are sixth with 33 points. Juventude's defense has been solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per game, while Novorizontino averages 1 goal conceded. The visitors rely on a structured approach and counter-attacks, while Novorizontino tends to press higher and create more chances. The tactical battle will test Juventude's resilience against Novorizontino's attacking intent, making this a competitive fixture with stakes for top-table positioning.

BT4Y best bet

Juventude to Win

  • Juventude holds a higher league position (2nd) than Novorizontino (6th) with 35 points versus 33.
  • Juventude concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Novorizontino (1.0), indicating defensive solidity.
  • Novorizontino averages more shots (13.6) and corners (5.8) but lower conversion rates than Juventude.
  • Lucas Alves is a key attacking threat for Juventude, averaging 7.5 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Juventude's recent form shows 10 points gained, outperforming Novorizontino's 6 points in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Juventude to win with a 55.8% chance, highlighting strong defensive metrics and efficient attacking output. Despite Novorizontino's higher shot and corner volumes, Juventude's ability to limit goals conceded and capitalize on chances through players like Lucas Alves creates a solid football read. The price offers positive value with a 31.4% edge, reflecting the model's in Juventude's tactical discipline and recent momentum. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Defensive strengthJuventude concedes only 0.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Attacking efficiencyLucas Alves averages 7.5 shots and shots on target per 90
Positive
Recent formJuventude earned 10 points recently vs Novorizontino's 6
Positive
Price value31.4% value edge at 4.1 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Juventude's disciplined defense and clinical attacking threat, led by Lucas Alves, make them a strong candidate for victory. Their recent form and league standing reflect consistent performance, while Novorizontino's attacking pressure may be contained by Juventude's tactical setup. This combination of form and defensive solidity underpins the pick for Juventude to win.

Main risk

The concern is at the other end.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Juventude

“Juventude's ability to absorb pressure and exploit counter-attacks, especially through Lucas Alves, gives them a tactical edge in this matchup. Their defensive record and recent points haul suggest they can secure a valuable away win.”

Key Data Signals

Juventude to Win evidence

Juventude holds a higher league position (2nd) than Novorizontino (6th) with 35 points versus 33.

Juventude concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) compared to Novorizontino (1.0), indicating defensive solidity.

Novorizontino averages more shots (13.6) and corners (5.8) but lower conversion rates than Juventude.

Lucas Alves is a key attacking threat for Juventude, averaging 7.5 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Juventude to Win notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1 per game, indicating tight contests.
  • Novorizontino's higher Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Juventude's conservative approach, suggesting this match may lean towards fewer goals with tactical caution and defensive discipline from Juventude.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Novorizontino1.6
Avg goals scored
Juventude1.2
Novorizontino1
Avg goals conceded
Juventude0.8
Novorizontino40%
BTTS rate
Juventude20%
Novorizontino60%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventude20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 46% · edge +4.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Recent trends show Novorizontino with a 60% Over 2.5 goals rate and 40% BTTS, contrasting with Juventude's more conservative 20% rates. This suggests a lower-scoring game with limited BTTS likelihood, aligning with Juventude's solid defense and Novorizontino's moderate scoring, favoring a controlled match environment.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The for Juventude to win at 4.1 imply a 24.4% chance, significantly lower than the model's 55.8% estimate, indicating strong value. This price sensitivity suggests bettors can consider a standard stake with , as the market underestimates Juventude's chances given their defensive resilience and efficient attack.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Novorizontino7
Avg corners for
Juventude3.25
Novorizontino13
Avg total corners
Juventude7.25
Novorizontino2.33
Avg yellow cards
Juventude2.5
Novorizontino12.33
Avg shots
Juventude11.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 55% · edge +7.8 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Novorizontino averages more corners (5.8) and shots (13.6) than Juventude, reflecting their attacking intent and territorial pressure. However, Juventude maintains discipline with fewer fouls and cards, conceding only 2.2 yellows per game compared to Novorizontino's 1.8, indicating a composed defensive approach likely to limit Novorizontino's set-piece threats.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Novorizontino

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
26 Jul 2026A Londrina4-1
21 Jul 2026H Criciuma0-1
18 Jul 2026A Fortaleza EC0-1
12 Jul 2026A Operario-PR1-2
04 Jul 2026H Atletico Goianiense3-0

Juventude

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
28 Jul 2026H Avai1-0
24 Jul 2026A Botafogo SP2-4
17 Jul 2026H Cuiaba2-0
10 Jul 2026H Vila Nova1-0
06 Jul 2026A Nautico Recife0-0
Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Juventude's recent form is superior, securing 10 points compared to Novorizontino's 6 in the same period. This momentum reflects better execution and consistency, with Juventude conceding fewer goals and maintaining defensive solidity, which supports their chances to secure a win in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Novorizontino wins
1Draws
1Juventude wins
31 Mar 2026Juventude v Novorizontino0-0
29 Mar 2026Juventude v Novorizontino0-2
03 Aug 2023Juventude v Novorizontino1-0
22 Apr 2023Novorizontino v Juventude1-0
Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
The four recent meetings between these teams have averaged only 1 goal per game, indicating historically tight and low-scoring encounters. This limited goal output supports the expectation of a closely fought match where defensive organization will be key, slightly favoring Juventude's solid backline.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Novorizontino20
Played
Juventude20
Novorizontino1.6
Avg goals for
Juventude1.1
Novorizontino1
Avg goals against
Juventude0.6
Novorizontino7
Clean sheets
Juventude14
Market aligned with main pickJuventude to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
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Juventude Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Juventude's season-long defensive record of 0.8 goals conceded per game underpins their strength, while their attack remains efficient despite fewer shots than Novorizontino. Novorizontino's higher shot and corner averages have not translated into a superior points tally, highlighting Juventude's better conversion and defensive organization.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Juventude3520105510
6Novorizontino332096513
Juventude's second-place position with 35 points versus Novorizontino's sixth with 33 points shows a tight but meaningful gap. This standing reflects Juventude's consistency and ability to secure results against strong opposition, adding competitive pressure and motivation to maintain their higher league rank.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Novorizontino Over 2.5
20%Juventude Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is low at 1 per game, indicating tight contests. Novorizontino's higher Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Juventude's conservative approach, suggesting this match may lean towards fewer goals with tactical caution and defensive discipline from Juventude.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Novorizontino v Juventude prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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