Football Stats Hub

Notts County crestNotts County
v
Chesterfield crestChesterfield

League Two | Fri 15 May, 20:00

Notts County v Chesterfield Stats

Data last updated: Thu 04 Jun 2026, 15:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Notts County face Chesterfield in League Two on Fri 15 May, 20:00. Jayden Luker’s strike in the first meeting has given County a lead to defend, but nobody inside Meadow Lane will be pretending the job is done. Chesterfield arrive in fantastic away form, having lost just one of their last nine road fixtures.

BT4Y best bet

Notts County Win

  • At 11/2, Notts County Win implies roughly 15%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Chesterfield’s habit of drawing at half-time on the road and County's defensive lapses suggest a scoring draw is highly likely as the tension rises.
  • Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Notts County.
  • Chesterfield have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Notts County Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Notts County sit 5 in the table, while Chesterfield sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Notts County Win sits against roughly 15% implied by the current price. Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Notts County. Chesterfield’s habit of drawing at half-time on the road and County's defensive lapses suggest a scoring draw is highly likely as the tension rises.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 15% implied
Positive
Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Chesterfield have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Chesterfield’s habit of drawing at half-time on the road.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Notts County Win is the preferred angle because chesterfield’s habit of drawing at half-time on the road and County's defensive lapses suggest a scoring draw is highly likely as the tension rises late in this play-off second leg. Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Notts County. That does not automatically mean domination, but it reinforces the idea that Chesterfield are comfortable playing proactively rather than simply reacting.

Main risk

That does not automatically mean domination, but it reinforces the idea that Chesterfield are comfortable playing proactively rather than simply reacting.

Key Data Signals

Notts County Win evidence

Chesterfield’s habit of drawing at half-time on the road and County's defensive lapses suggest a scoring draw is.

Chesterfield have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Notts County.

Chesterfield have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Notts County Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Notts County sit 5 in the table, while Chesterfield sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Notts County Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Notts County0.8
    Avg goals scored
    Chesterfield1.4
    Notts County1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Chesterfield0.8
    Notts County40%
    BTTS rate
    Chesterfield60%
    Notts County40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Chesterfield40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more League Two analysisfull betting preview for Notts County v Chesterfieldcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Notts County

    WDWLL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    10 May 2026A Chesterfield1-0
    02 May 2026H Bristol Rovers1-1
    25 Apr 2026A Colchester1-0
    18 Apr 2026H Barnet1-2
    11 Apr 2026A Cambridge United0-4

    Chesterfield

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    10 May 2026H Notts County0-1
    02 May 2026A Swindon Town2-1
    25 Apr 2026H Crewe2-0
    18 Apr 2026A Fleetwood Town1-1
    14 Apr 2026H Grimsby2-1
    Market aligned with main pickNotts County to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 44% · edge -17.4 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Notts County Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 51%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Notts County80462481422
    6Chesterfield79462116915
    Notts County sit in position 5, while Chesterfield sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Notts County Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNotts County to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 44% · edge -17.4 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Notts County Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Notts County to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Notts County3.6
    Avg corners for
    Chesterfield4
    Notts County7.8
    Avg total corners
    Chesterfield8.4
    Notts County2.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Chesterfield1.6
    Notts County10.2
    Avg shots
    Chesterfield12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 54% · edge +4.2 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 42%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Notts County wins
    4Draws
    4Chesterfield wins
    10 May 2026Chesterfield v Notts County0-1
    14 Mar 2026Notts County v Chesterfield2-3
    26 Dec 2025Chesterfield v Notts County2-0
    15 Mar 2025Notts County v Chesterfield1-2
    12 Oct 2024Chesterfield v Notts County2-2
    13 May 2023Chesterfield v Notts County2-2
    Market aligned with main pickNotts County to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 44% · edge -17.4 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Notts County to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    League Two

    Notts County49
    Played
    Chesterfield48
    Notts County1.6
    Avg goals for
    Chesterfield1.5
    Notts County1.1
    Avg goals against
    Chesterfield1.2
    Notts County16
    Clean sheets
    Chesterfield15
    Market aligned with main pickNotts County to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 44% · edge -17.4 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Notts County Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports Notts County to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Notts County Over 2.5
    40%Chesterfield Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Notts County sit at 40% and Chesterfield sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Notts County v Chesterfield prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

    More stats pages

    Browse football stats pages

    Open the main stats hub for the latest fixture dashboards.

    Competition and hubs

    League Two hubmore League Two analysisfull betting preview for Notts County v Chesterfieldcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre