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Norway crestNorway
v
Senegal crestSenegal

World Cup | Tue 23 Jun, 01:00

Norway v Senegal Stats

Data last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026, 21:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Norway face Senegal in World Cup on Tue 23 Jun, 01:00. A high-pressure Group I meeting in New Jersey. Norway come into this match on a dominant six-match winning run, maintaining an explosive average of 3.2 goals per game across their last twenty outings.

BT4Y best bet

Dom of a side sitting top of the group, while Senegal have to balance urgency with control

  • At 7/2, Norway Win implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Senegal’s opening defeat to France hurt, especially after conceding three goals, but their broader defensive profile remains strong.
  • Norway have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Senegal.
  • Norway have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Norway Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Norway Win sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Norway have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Senegal. Senegal’s opening defeat to France hurt, especially after conceding three goals, but their broader defensive profile remains strong.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Strong positive
Norway have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Norway have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Senegal’s opening defeat to France hurt, especially after conceding.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Norway Win is the preferred angle because senegal’s opening defeat to France hurt, especially after conceding three goals, but their broader defensive profile remains strong. Norway have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Senegal. Too passive, and they risk letting Norway’s attack dictate the night.

Main risk

Too passive, and they risk letting Norway’s attack dictate the night.

Key Data Signals

Norway Win evidence

Senegal’s opening defeat to France hurt, especially after conceding three goals, but their broader defensive profile remains strong.

Norway have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Senegal.

Norway have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Norway Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Norway Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Norway4
    Avg goals scored
    Senegal1
    Norway1
    Avg goals conceded
    Senegal3
    Norway100%
    BTTS rate
    Senegal100%
    Norway100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Senegal100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 31% · edge +45.2 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNorway to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 44% · edge +29.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Norway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Norway to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Norway5
    Avg corners for
    Senegal-
    Norway7
    Avg total corners
    Senegal-
    Norway0
    Avg yellow cards
    Senegal-
    Norway12
    Avg shots
    Senegal-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 38%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Norway

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    16 Jun 2026A Iraq4-1

    Senegal

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    16 Jun 2026A France1-3
    Market aligned with main pickNorway to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 44% · edge +29.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Norway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Norway wins
    0Draws
    0Senegal wins
    Market aligned with main pickNorway to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 44% · edge +29.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Norway to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Norway6
    Played
    Senegal4
    Norway2.2
    Avg goals for
    Senegal2.5
    Norway1.8
    Avg goals against
    Senegal2.3
    Norway0
    Clean sheets
    Senegal1
    Market aligned with main pickNorway to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 44% · edge +29.6 pts
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Norway Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.68
    Check odds @ 1.68
    Season data supports Norway to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Norway632011
    3Senegal331022
    8Senegal331022
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Norway Over 2.5
    100%Senegal Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Norway sit at 100% and Senegal sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Norway v Senegal prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre