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Nashville SC crestNashville SC
v
Chicago Fire crestChicago Fire

Major League Soccer | Sun 20 Sep, 02:30

Nashville SC v Chicago Fire Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 22:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nashville SC hosts Chicago Fire in a Major League Soccer clash where attacking intent and goal-scoring form set the stage for an open encounter. Nashville SC leads the standings and boasts a strong recent scoring record, while Chicago Fire, positioned fifth, have shown resilience but also defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have offensive weapons capable of creating chances, suggesting a lively game with multiple goal opportunities. The match carries significance for playoff positioning, adding competitive edge and urgency to the attacking play from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Nashville SC averages 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.
  • Chicago Fire maintains a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate with a 100% BTTS rate, showing consistent goal involvement.
  • Both teams average around 15 shots per game, reflecting active offensive pressure.
  • Recent form shows Nashville SC scoring 2 goals per game and Chicago Fire 1.8, supporting a goal-rich fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a slightly undervalued market with a 49.5% chance against a 44.4% implied probability, offering a 5.1% . Both teams demonstrate attacking prowess and defensive lapses, with Nashville SC's high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) and Chicago Fire's perfect BTTS record reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. The average shots and shots on target per match further support an open game with scoring chances. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a solid value pick with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance49.5%
Strong positive
Implied Chance44.4%
Positive
Value Edge5.1%
Strong positive
Nashville SC Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Chicago Fire BTTS Rate100%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Nashville SC aims to maintain their top position and Chicago Fire pushes to close the gap. Both teams' offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a high-scoring game, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice supported by recent form and attacking statistics.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking dynamics

“This fixture features two sides with strong attacking intent and defensive frailties, setting up a likely goal-fest. The statistical indicators align well with an Over 3.5 Goals outcome, making it an attractive market for bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Nashville SC averages 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating frequent high-scoring matches.

Chicago Fire maintains a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate with a 100% BTTS rate, showing consistent goal involvement.

Both teams average around 15 shots per game, reflecting active offensive pressure.

Recent form shows Nashville SC scoring 2 goals per game and Chicago Fire 1.8, supporting a goal-rich fixture.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, close to the Over 2.5 threshold, indicating a history of relatively open matches.
  • Recent team trends show Nashville SC's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals (80%), while Chicago Fire also contributes to goal-rich games with a 60% Over 2.5 rate.
  • These trends suggest a tempo and style conducive to an Over 2.5, supporting the higher Over 3.5 Goals selection as a natural extension of attacking patterns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nashville SC5.6
Avg corners for
Chicago Fire5.4
Nashville SC8.6
Avg total corners
Chicago Fire9
Nashville SC2
Avg yellow cards
Chicago Fire1.6
Nashville SC14.8
Avg shots
Chicago Fire15.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.8 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams average similar corner counts (around 5.5 per game) and maintain active shot volumes (Nashville SC 14.8, Chicago Fire 15.4), reflecting balanced territorial play and sustained attacking pressure. Discipline is moderate, with Nashville SC averaging 2 yellows and Chicago Fire 1.6, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to fluid play and goal chances.

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Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nashville SC2
Avg goals scored
Chicago Fire1.8
Nashville SC1.2
Avg goals conceded
Chicago Fire2
Nashville SC60%
BTTS rate
Chicago Fire100%
Nashville SC80%
Over 2.5 goals
Chicago Fire60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 48% · edge +1.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams show strong goal involvement trends, with Nashville SC's 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and Chicago Fire's perfect 100% BTTS rate indicating frequent matches with multiple goals and both sides scoring. Their recent average goals per game (2 and 1.8 respectively) and shots data reinforce the expectation of an open game with goals at both ends.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Nashville SC to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Chicago Fire Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a 2.25 offering a slight over the model's 49.5% chance. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, supported by both teams' offensive tendencies and recent goal outputs. The price is stable with no warnings, making it a sensible selection for standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nashville SC

DLDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
13 Sep 2026A Inter Miami2-2
10 Sep 2026A Toronto FC1-2
05 Sep 2026A New York City FC0-0
30 Aug 2026H FC Cincinnati4-0
23 Aug 2026H Columbus Crew3-2

Chicago Fire

LDDDD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
13 Sep 2026H New England Revolution1-2
10 Sep 2026H Inter Miami1-1
06 Sep 2026A Toronto FC4-4
29 Aug 2026A Seattle Sounders2-2
23 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 80% · edge +6 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Nashville SC to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Chicago Fire Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Recent form data highlights Nashville SC's strong offensive output with 2 goals per game and an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a consistent trend of high-scoring matches. Chicago Fire, while scoring slightly less at 1.8 goals per game, maintains a perfect BTTS record and a 60% Over 2.5 rate, suggesting their matches often feature multiple goals. This form supports the likelihood of an Over 3.5 Goals outcome in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Nashville SC wins
2Draws
2Chicago Fire wins
05 Apr 2026Chicago Fire v Nashville SC1-0
15 Jun 2025Chicago Fire v Nashville SC0-2
27 Apr 2025Nashville SC v Chicago Fire7-2
20 Oct 2024Chicago Fire v Nashville SC0-3
19 Sep 2024Nashville SC v Chicago Fire1-0
09 Jul 2023Chicago Fire v Nashville SC1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Nashville SC to WinBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
The head-to-head sample of ten matches reveals an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating moderately high-scoring encounters historically. While this average is slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold, the trend supports an open game with multiple goals. Combined with current form and attacking stats, the H2H data provides a solid background for expecting a goal-laden match.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Nashville SC26
Played
Chicago Fire25
Nashville SC2
Avg goals for
Chicago Fire1.8
Nashville SC0.8
Avg goals against
Chicago Fire1.5
Nashville SC12
Clean sheets
Chicago Fire6
Best odds for this sectionNashville SC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Chicago Fire Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.68
Check odds @ 2.68
Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Season-long statistics show Nashville SC as the league's top-ranked team with 54 points, reflecting strong attacking and defensive performances. Their high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%) and average goals conceded (1.2) suggest open matches with scoring chances. Chicago Fire's 5th place with 39 points and a higher goals-against average (2.0) indicate defensive vulnerabilities that could contribute to a high-scoring game.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Nashville SC5726176332
5Chicago Fire392511687
Nashville SC leads the Major League Soccer standings, emphasizing their offensive control and motivation to maintain top position. Chicago Fire sits fifth, aiming to close the gap and secure playoff positioning. The competitive stakes for both teams encourage attacking play and risk-taking, increasing the probability of multiple goals in this encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Nashville SC Over 2.5
60%Chicago Fire Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.8, close to the Over 2.5 threshold, indicating a history of relatively open matches. Recent team trends show Nashville SC's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals (80%), while Chicago Fire also contributes to goal-rich games with a 60% Over 2.5 rate. These trends suggest a tempo and style conducive to an Over 2.5, supporting the higher Over 3.5 Goals selection as a natural extension of attacking patterns.

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Fixture links

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