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Nashville SC crestNashville SC
v
Atlanta United FC crestAtlanta United FC

Major League Soccer | Sat 18 Jul, 01:10

Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC Stats

Data last updated: Fri 17 Jul 2026, 05:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nashville SC face Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer on Sat 18 Jul, 01:10. Nashville SC enter this Eastern Conference meeting as clear favourites due to their dominant home form, remaining unbeaten in seven home league matches with six wins and one draw.

BT4Y match pick

Requires both competing squads to score at least one goal during regular play

  • At 12/25, Nashville SC Win implies roughly 68%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • They have scored 23 goals at GEODIS Park, the highest home total in the conference, and possess a strong defensive record, conceding only 11.
  • Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atlanta United FC.
  • Nashville SC have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Nashville SC Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Nashville SC sit 1 in the table, while Atlanta United FC sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Nashville SC Win sits against roughly 68% implied by the current price. Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atlanta United FC. They have scored that scoring level at GEODIS Park, the highest home total in the conference, and possess a strong defensive record, conceding only 11.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 68% implied
Neutral
Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 11.Visible data support
Positive
Nashville SC have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
They have scored 23 goals at GEODIS Park, the.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Nashville SC Win is the preferred angle because they have scored that scoring level at GEODIS Park, the highest home total in the conference, and possess a strong defensive record, conceding only 11 goals all season. Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atlanta United FC. That zero goal difference tells a very loud story: plenty of attacking punch, but too much space left behind the curtain.

Main risk

That zero goal difference tells a very loud story: plenty of attacking punch, but too much space left behind the curtain.

Key Data Signals

Nashville SC Win evidence

They have scored 23 goals at GEODIS Park, the highest home total in the conference, and possess a.

Nashville SC have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 7 for Atlanta United FC.

Nashville SC have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Nashville SC Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Nashville SC sit 1 in the table, while Atlanta United FC sit 14, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Nashville SC Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Nashville SC8
    Avg corners for
    Atlanta United FC8.5
    Nashville SC15
    Avg total corners
    Atlanta United FC14.5
    Nashville SC3
    Avg yellow cards
    Atlanta United FC1.5
    Nashville SC16
    Avg shots
    Atlanta United FC13.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 50% · edge +19 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 60%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Nashville SC2
    Avg goals scored
    Atlanta United FC1.4
    Nashville SC1
    Avg goals conceded
    Atlanta United FC1.4
    Nashville SC60%
    BTTS rate
    Atlanta United FC80%
    Nashville SC80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Atlanta United FC60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 52% · edge +23.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 82%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.26
    Check odds @ 1.26
    Nashville SC to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Nashville SC

    WWWDD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 2D 1L
    24 May 2026H New York City FC2-1
    18 May 2026H Los Angeles FC3-2
    14 May 2026A New England Revolution3-0
    10 May 2026H DC United2-2
    03 May 2026A Philadelphia Union0-0

    Atlanta United FC

    LDLWW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 6L
    24 May 2026A Columbus Crew0-2
    17 May 2026A Orlando City SC1-1
    10 May 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy1-2
    03 May 2026H CF Montreal3-1
    25 Apr 2026A Toronto FC2-1
    Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.26
    Check odds @ 1.26
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Nashville SC wins
    3Draws
    2Atlanta United FC wins
    19 Apr 2026Atlanta United FC v Nashville SC0-2
    31 Aug 2025Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC0-1
    03 May 2025Atlanta United FC v Nashville SC1-1
    15 Sep 2024Atlanta United FC v Nashville SC0-2
    18 May 2024Nashville SC v Atlanta United FC1-1
    27 Aug 2023Atlanta United FC v Nashville SC4-0
    Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Nashville SC to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Major League Soccer

    Nashville SC14
    Played
    Atlanta United FC14
    Nashville SC2.2
    Avg goals for
    Atlanta United FC1
    Nashville SC0.8
    Avg goals against
    Atlanta United FC1.6
    Nashville SC6
    Clean sheets
    Atlanta United FC1
    Market aligned with main pickNashville SC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.3 pts
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
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    Nashville SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.26
    Check odds @ 1.26
    Season data supports Nashville SC to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Nashville SC3314103120
    14Atlanta United FC1114329-9
    Nashville SC sit in position 1, while Atlanta United FC sit in position 14, so table pressure belongs in the Nashville SC Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Nashville SC Over 2.5
    60%Atlanta United FC Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nashville SC sit at 80% and Atlanta United FC sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.