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Napoli crestNapoli
v
Bologna crestBologna

Serie A | Mon 11 May, 19:45

Napoli v Bologna Stats

Data last updated: Sun 21 Jun 2026, 12:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Napoli face Bologna in Serie A on Mon 11 May, 19:45. A Champions League place is not mathematically secure, even if Napoli remain firmly in control of their own destiny. Swipe through key markets based on recent form and illustrative probabilities. Bologna's failure to score in four matches suggests the under 2.

BT4Y best bet

Napoli to Win & Under 3

  • At 6/5, Napoli Win implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona.
  • Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna.
  • Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Napoli sit 2 in the table, while Bologna sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 52% for Napoli Win sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna. Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Positive
Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points.Visible data support
Positive
Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Napoli Win is the preferred angle because napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna. The title dream may be over, but this crowd still demands a response.

Main risk

The title dream may be over, but this crowd still demands a response.

Key Data Signals

Napoli Win evidence

Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona.

Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna.

Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Napoli sit 2 in the table, while Bologna sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Napoli Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Napoli1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Bologna0.8
    Napoli0.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Bologna1
    Napoli20%
    BTTS rate
    Bologna20%
    Napoli20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bologna20%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 52% · edge +13.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Napoli

    DWLDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    02 May 2026A Como0-0
    24 Apr 2026H Cremonese4-0
    18 Apr 2026H Lazio0-2
    12 Apr 2026A Parma1-1
    06 Apr 2026H AC Milan1-0

    Bologna

    DLLWW
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 1D 4L
    03 May 2026H Cagliari0-0
    25 Apr 2026H AS Roma0-2
    19 Apr 2026A Juventus0-2
    12 Apr 2026H Lecce2-0
    05 Apr 2026A Cremonese2-1
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 65% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Napoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 79%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Napoli7638237822
    8Bologna5638168143
    Napoli sit in position 2, while Bologna sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Napoli Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 65% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Napoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 64%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Napoli to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Napoli6.4
    Avg corners for
    Bologna5.4
    Napoli9.2
    Avg total corners
    Bologna10
    Napoli0.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Bologna1
    Napoli15
    Avg shots
    Bologna11.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +5.8 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Napoli wins
    3Draws
    2Bologna wins
    22 Dec 2025Napoli v Bologna2-0
    09 Nov 2025Bologna v Napoli2-0
    07 Apr 2025Bologna v Napoli1-1
    25 Aug 2024Napoli v Bologna3-0
    11 May 2024Napoli v Bologna0-2
    24 Sep 2023Bologna v Napoli0-0
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 65% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Napoli to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Napoli38
    Played
    Bologna38
    Napoli1.5
    Avg goals for
    Bologna1.3
    Napoli0.9
    Avg goals against
    Bologna1.2
    Napoli15
    Clean sheets
    Bologna12
    Market aligned with main pickNapoli to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 65% · edge -12.3 pts
    1.55
    Check odds @ 1.55
    Load more odds for this section
    Napoli Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Season data supports Napoli to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Napoli Over 2.5
    20%Bologna Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Napoli sit at 20% and Bologna sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Napoli v Bologna prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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