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Match Context
Fixture analysis
Napoli face Bologna in Serie A on Mon 11 May, 19:45. A Champions League place is not mathematically secure, even if Napoli remain firmly in control of their own destiny. Swipe through key markets based on recent form and illustrative probabilities. Bologna's failure to score in four matches suggests the under 2.
Napoli
BolognaSerie A | Mon 11 May, 19:45
Napoli v Bologna Stats
Data last updated: Sat 30 May 2026, 17:14 UK timeNapoli to Win & Under 3
- At 6/5, Napoli Win implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
- Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona.
- Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna.
- Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
- Napoli sit 2 in the table, while Bologna sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The 52% for Napoli Win sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna. Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Napoli Win is the preferred angle because napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona. Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna. The title dream may be over, but this crowd still demands a response.
The title dream may be over, but this crowd still demands a response.
Key Data Signals
Napoli Win evidence
Napoli have been dominant at home, losing just once in 17 games at the Maradona.
Napoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Bologna.
Napoli have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Napoli Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Napoli sit 2 in the table, while Bologna sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
What To Watch In The Data
Napoli Win notes
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Napoli
Bologna
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 76 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Bologna | 56 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 3 |
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
Serie A
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
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