Football Stats Hub

Nacional crestNacional
v
Estoril crestEstoril

Primeira Liga | Sun 16 Aug, 15:30

Nacional v Estoril Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 03:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nacional face Estoril in Primeira Liga on Sun 16 Aug, 15:30. Estoril have gone nine Primeira Liga matches without a win, despite averaging 52.5% possession across their last 10 league games. Their record of one win, three draws and six defeats across those 10 matches reinforces the point.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams To Score YES

  • At 4/6, Both Teams To Score YES implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 75%.
  • Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.
  • Nacional show a 100% BTTS rate and Estoril show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Nacional average 2 goals scored and Estoril average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 75% for Both Teams To Score YES sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Nacional show a 100% BTTS rate and Estoril show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Model chance vs price75% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Strong positive
Nacional show a 100% BTTS rate and Estoril show a.Visible data support
Positive
Nacional average 2 goals scored and Estoril average 1, so.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Nacional show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Estoril show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. That is the concern.

Main risk

That is the concern.

Key Data Signals

Both Teams To Score YES evidence

Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.

Nacional show a 100% BTTS rate and Estoril show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Nacional average 2 goals scored and Estoril average 1, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams To Score YES notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nacional2
Avg goals scored
Estoril1
Nacional2
Avg goals conceded
Estoril1
Nacional100%
BTTS rate
Estoril100%
Nacional100%
Over 2.5 goals
Estoril0%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Nacional to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Nacional Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Estoril Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Estoril to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nacional4
Avg corners for
Estoril7
Nacional8
Avg total corners
Estoril13
Nacional2
Avg yellow cards
Estoril1
Nacional10
Avg shots
Estoril14
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 60% · edge -4.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nacional

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
10 Aug 2026A Santa Clara2-2

Estoril

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
07 Aug 2026H Famalicao1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 69% · edge +5.3 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Nacional to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Nacional Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Estoril Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Estoril to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Nacional wins
3Draws
4Estoril wins
15 Mar 2026Nacional v Estoril0-1
26 Oct 2025Estoril v Nacional1-1
15 Feb 2025Nacional v Estoril2-2
15 Sep 2024Estoril v Nacional1-0
25 Jul 2021Nacional v Estoril1-2
14 Dec 2019Estoril v Nacional1-2
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Nacional to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Estoril to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Nacional5
Played
Estoril5
Nacional1.2
Avg goals for
Estoril0.4
Nacional1.6
Avg goals against
Estoril1.4
Nacional1
Clean sheets
Estoril1
Best odds for this sectionNacional to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 38% · edge +7.3 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Nacional Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Estoril Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Estoril to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season data supports Nacional to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Nacional45113-2
16Estoril25023-5
Nacional sit in position 12, while Estoril sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Both Teams To Score YES assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Nacional Over 2.5
0%Estoril Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Nacional sit at 100% and Estoril sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Nacional v Estoril prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Moreirense v BenficaPrimeira Liga · Wed 09 Sep 20:45Estrela v SC BragaPrimeira Liga · Thu 10 Sep 20:15

Competition and hubs

Primeira Liga hubmore Primeira Liga analysisfull betting preview for Nacional v Estorilcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football stats

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre