Football Stats Hub

Morocco crestMorocco
v
Haiti crestHaiti

World Cup | Wed 24 Jun, 23:00

Morocco v Haiti Stats

Data last updated: Tue 23 Jun 2026, 02:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Morocco enters this final Group C fixture with four points from two matches, having drawn 1-1 with Brazil and narrowly beaten Scotland 1-0. The Atlas Lions have demonstrated defensive solidity and tactical maturity under Mohamed Ouahbi, focusing on possession control and structured play rather than open attacking chaos. Haiti, already eliminated after losses to Scotland and Brazil, have yet to score in the tournament but remain motivated to leave a mark in their first World Cup appearance since 1974. Morocco's technical superiority and disciplined defensive setup contrast with Haiti's spirited but struggling attack, setting the stage for a controlled, low-scoring encounter with Morocco seeking to secure top spot in the group.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Morocco to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 86%, above the 74% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Morocco remain undefeated with four points and have conceded only one goal in two matches.
  • Haiti have failed to score in the tournament so far despite creating some chances against Brazil.
  • Morocco's defensive structure and midfield control limit Haiti's transition threat and attacking opportunities.
  • Ismael Saibari has scored in both of Morocco's matches, providing a reliable goal threat.
Price warning

Morocco to Win & Under 3.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 86% while the model sits nearer 74% (-11.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +24 pts edge at 2.38.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model rates Morocco to Win & Under 3.5 Goals with a 74% chance, reflecting Morocco's strong defensive record and Haiti's lack of goals in the tournament. The selection is football-led rather than value-driven, as the market price is short with an implied chance of 85.7%, exceeding the model's probability. Morocco's tactical discipline and Saibari's finishing underpin the pick, but the current warrant reduced stake or waiting for price improvement. The absence of data limitations supports in the defensive and attacking profiles presented.

Morocco's defensive resilienceOnly 1 goal conceded in 2 matches
Strong positive
Haiti's scoring struggles0 goals in 2 matches
Strong positive
Model chance vs. market implied chance74% vs. 85.7%
Negative
Morocco's attacking efficiencySaibari scored in both games
Positive
Price sensitivityCurrent odds are short, suggesting caution
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Morocco's structured approach and superior technical quality make them well placed to win while keeping the game under 3.5 goals. Their defensive discipline and midfield control limit Haiti's attacking chances, while Saibari's consistent scoring provides a reliable edge. This combination suits a professional, controlled victory rather than an open, high-scoring match.

Main risk

The main risk is that Morocco's potential rotation or complacency could reduce intensity, allowing Haiti to exploit transitions or score, which would challenge the low-scoring prediction.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and scoring analysis

“Morocco's blend of tactical control and clinical finishing, especially through Saibari, positions them well to secure a disciplined victory. Haiti's motivation is high, but their offensive struggles and Morocco's defensive solidity create a clear tactical mismatch.”

Key Data Signals

Morocco to Win & Under 3.5 Goals evidence

Morocco remain undefeated with four points and have conceded only one goal in two matches.

Haiti have failed to score in the tournament so far despite creating some chances against Brazil.

Morocco's defensive structure and midfield control limit Haiti's transition threat and attacking opportunities.

Ismael Saibari has scored in both of Morocco's matches, providing a reliable goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Morocco to Win & Under 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, Morocco have maintained a 0% rate for over 2.5 goals, reflecting a defensive, low-tempo style.
  • Haiti's matches have seen a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, often due to defensive lapses.
  • The trend suggests a likely low-scoring game with Morocco controlling tempo and Haiti pushing for rare scoring chances, supporting the under 3.5 goals selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Morocco1
Avg goals scored
Haiti0
Morocco0.5
Avg goals conceded
Haiti2
Morocco50%
BTTS rate
Haiti0%
Morocco0%
Over 2.5 goals
Haiti50%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 42% · edge +24 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Morocco have conceded only one goal in two matches and prefer a controlled, low-tempo game, while Haiti have yet to score despite creating chances. This supports a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals scenario, reflecting defensive compactness and Morocco's ability to limit Haiti's transition opportunities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMorocco to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 85% · edge -10.7 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Morocco Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The market prices Morocco to Win & Under 3.5 Goals very short at 1/6, implying an 85.7% chance, which exceeds the model's 74% probability. This indicates a price-sensitive selection where the football read is strong but value is limited. drift or late team news could improve the value proposition.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more World Cup analysisrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Morocco3.5
Avg corners for
Haiti4
Morocco7.5
Avg total corners
Haiti7.5
Morocco0.5
Avg yellow cards
Haiti2
Morocco13
Avg shots
Haiti11
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +9.9 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Morocco average 3.5 corners and 13 shots per game with 2.5 on target, showing steady attacking pressure without overexposure. Haiti average 4 corners and 11 shots with 2.5 on target but lack finishing efficiency. Morocco's low yellow card average (0.5) versus Haiti's higher rate (2) suggests disciplined defending and fewer disruptions, aiding control.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Morocco

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
19 Jun 2026A Scotland1-0
13 Jun 2026A Brazil1-1

Haiti

LL
Last 50W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 2L
20 Jun 2026A Brazil0-3
14 Jun 2026H Scotland0-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 97% · edge -11.1 pts
1.03
Check odds @ 1.03
Load more odds for this section
Morocco to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Morocco Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Morocco's recent form shows four points from two matches with a clean defensive record and a low over 2.5 goals rate (0%), highlighting their preference for controlled matches. Haiti have zero points, no goals scored, and a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating vulnerability in defense and occasional open games. This contrast supports Morocco's structured approach and the under 3.5 goals pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Morocco wins
0Draws
0Haiti wins
Market aligned with main pickMorocco to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 85% · edge -10.7 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
No previous head-to-head matches exist between Morocco and Haiti, limiting direct historical insight. Therefore, current tactical form, defensive solidity, and recent tournament performances provide the primary basis for expectations in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

World Cup

Morocco2
Played
Haiti2
Morocco1
Avg goals for
Haiti0
Morocco0.5
Avg goals against
Haiti2
Morocco1
Clean sheets
Haiti0
Market aligned with main pickMorocco to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 85% · edge -10.7 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Morocco Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Morocco's season stats reveal a strong defensive profile with only 0.5 goals conceded per game and a balanced attack averaging 1 goal per match, aligning with a low-scoring, controlled game plan. Haiti's defensive frailties and lack of goals scored reflect their struggles, reinforcing Morocco's expected control and the likelihood of a low total goals outcome.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Morocco421101
4Haiti02002-4
Morocco sits second in Group C with four points, positioned well to advance and possibly top the group, incentivizing a professional, controlled performance. Haiti, fourth with zero points, are eliminated but motivated to score their first goal. The standings underline Morocco's tactical caution and Haiti's desire to salvage pride, shaping a disciplined match dynamic.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Morocco Over 2.5
50%Haiti Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Morocco have maintained a 0% rate for over 2.5 goals, reflecting a defensive, low-tempo style. Haiti's matches have seen a 50% over 2.5 goals rate, often due to defensive lapses. The trend suggests a likely low-scoring game with Morocco controlling tempo and Haiti pushing for rare scoring chances, supporting the under 3.5 goals selection.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Morocco v Haiti prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Switzerland v CanadaWorld Cup · Wed 24 Jun 20:00Bosnia & Herzegovina v QatarWorld Cup · Wed 24 Jun 20:00Scotland v BrazilWorld Cup · Wed 24 Jun 23:00Czechia v MexicoWorld Cup · Thu 25 Jun 02:00

Competition and hubs

World Cup hubmore World Cup analysisrelated match predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre