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Maritimo crestMaritimo
v
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

Primeira Liga | Sat 08 Aug, 15:30

Maritimo v Casa Pia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 07 Aug 2026, 05:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Maritimo face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga on Sat 08 Aug, 15:30.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.8, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Neutral
Price sensitivityEdge +2.4 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Maritimo wins
1Draws
2Casa Pia wins
19 Mar 2023Casa Pia v Maritimo2-0
03 Oct 2022Maritimo v Casa Pia1-2
23 Jul 2022Casa Pia v Maritimo0-0
Best odds for this sectionCasa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 36% · edge +5.3 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Load more odds for this section
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The head-to-head sample gives context for Casa Pia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Primeira Liga analysisplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Maritimo

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Maritimo yet.

Casa Pia

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Casa Pia yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 65% · edge +5.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Casa Pia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Maritimo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Maritimo-
Avg goals scored
Casa Pia-
Maritimo-
Avg goals conceded
Casa Pia-
Maritimo-
BTTS rate
Casa Pia-
Maritimo-
Over 2.5 goals
Casa Pia-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +2.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCasa Pia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 49% · edge +2.7 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Maritimo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Casa Pia Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Primeira Liga

Maritimo0
Played
Casa Pia0
Maritimo0
Avg goals for
Casa Pia0
Maritimo0
Avg goals against
Casa Pia0
Maritimo0
Clean sheets
Casa Pia0
Best odds for this sectionCasa Pia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 49% · edge +2.7 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Casa Pia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Maritimo to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Maritimo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Season data supports Casa Pia Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Maritimo000000
15Casa Pia000000
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Maritimo Over 2.5
-Casa Pia Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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