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Malmo FF crestMalmo FF
v
Orgryte IS crestOrgryte IS

Allsvenskan | Sun 13 Sep, 15:30

Malmo FF v Orgryte IS Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Malmo FF face Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan on Sun 13 Sep, 15:30. Malmo FF come in with 7 recent points and 0.6 goals per match, while Orgryte IS have 2 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.7, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 37%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Malmo FF and 40% for Orgryte IS, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Orgryte IS are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Malmo FF at 0.6.
  • BTTS rates of 20% for Malmo FF and 80% for Orgryte IS show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 52% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 37% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Malmo FF and 40% for Orgryte IS, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 37% implied
Strong positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Malmo FF.Visible data support
Positive
Orgryte IS are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Orgryte IS are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Malmo FF at 0.6. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Orgryte IS are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.2 goals per match, with Malmo FF at 0.6.

BTTS rates of 20% for Malmo FF and 80% for Orgryte IS show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Malmo FF0.6
Avg goals scored
Orgryte IS1.2
Malmo FF1
Avg goals conceded
Orgryte IS2
Malmo FF20%
BTTS rate
Orgryte IS80%
Malmo FF40%
Over 2.5 goals
Orgryte IS40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +15 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 29%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Malmo FF

DWLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
07 Sep 2026H AIK Stockholm0-0
31 Aug 2026A Sirius1-0
24 Aug 2026H Djurgardens IF0-3
16 Aug 2026A Gais1-0
09 Aug 2026H Degerfors IF1-2

Orgryte IS

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
06 Sep 2026H Hammarby FF1-1
30 Aug 2026A IFK Goteborg0-1
22 Aug 2026H Halmstad1-1
16 Aug 2026A IF Brommapojkarna1-3
08 Aug 2026H AIK Stockholm3-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 33% · edge +13 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
Load more odds for this section
Orgryte IS Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Malmo FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Orgryte IS to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Malmo FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Malmo FF30209383
15Orgryte IS15203611-20
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOrgryte IS Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Malmo FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Orgryte IS to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Malmo FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Orgryte IS Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Malmo FF4.8
Avg corners for
Orgryte IS4
Malmo FF10.6
Avg total corners
Orgryte IS12.2
Malmo FF2.2
Avg yellow cards
Orgryte IS0.8
Malmo FF13.2
Avg shots
Orgryte IS10.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Malmo FF wins
1Draws
0Orgryte IS wins
05 Apr 2026Orgryte IS v Malmo FF1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Orgryte IS to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Malmo FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

Malmo FF20
Played
Orgryte IS20
Malmo FF1.7
Avg goals for
Orgryte IS1.2
Malmo FF1.5
Avg goals against
Orgryte IS2.2
Malmo FF7
Clean sheets
Orgryte IS3
Best odds for this sectionOrgryte IS Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 39% vs implied 24% · edge +15 pts
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Load more odds for this section
Malmo FF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Orgryte IS to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Malmo FF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Season data supports Orgryte IS Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Malmo FF Over 2.5
40%Orgryte IS Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Malmo FF sit at 40% and Orgryte IS sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.