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Lumezzane crestLumezzane
v
Renate crestRenate

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 13 Sep, 17:00

Lumezzane v Renate Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lumezzane hosts Renate in a Serie C - Girone A clash where both teams have shown modest scoring but contrasting defensive records. Lumezzane, positioned 14th with 3 points, aims to capitalize on home advantage against bottom-placed Renate, who have yet to earn points and concede more goals on average. The match carries significance for both sides seeking early momentum, with Lumezzane's slightly better defensive stability and home form offering a tactical edge in this balanced contest.

BT4Y best bet

Lumezzane to Win

  • Lumezzane holds a 59% to win, reflecting solid home form and defensive resilience.
  • Renate have conceded an average of 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The head-to-head average of 2.14 goals suggests moderately open games but with controlled tempo.
  • Lumezzane's recent form includes 3 points with a lower goals-against rate compared to Renate.
  • The current at 2.5 offer a positive of 19%, supporting a home win selection.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lumezzane to win based on a combination of home advantage, superior defensive record, and recent form. Despite both teams averaging similar goals scored per game, Lumezzane concedes fewer goals, indicating better defensive organization. The 59% contrasts with the 40% implied market chance, creating a 19% . This suggests the offer attractive value for backing Lumezzane, supported by their position above Renate in the standings and a more stable defensive profile. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Home AdvantageStrong home form and venue familiarity
Positive
Defensive StabilityLumezzane concedes 1.33 goals per game vs Renate's 2
Strong positive
Recent FormLumezzane has earned 3 points, Renate none
Positive
Value EdgeModel chance 59% vs implied 40%, 19% edge
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lumezzane's home defensive solidity and recent points haul give them a tactical and statistical advantage over Renate, who have struggled defensively and remain pointless. This combination makes Lumezzane a sensible pick to secure victory in this Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical defensive edge and value in home win

“Lumezzane's ability to limit goals conceded at home and capitalize on Renate's defensive frailties forms the core of this confident home win projection.”

Key Data Signals

Lumezzane to Win evidence

Lumezzane holds a 59% to win, reflecting solid home form and defensive resilience.

Renate have conceded an average of 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

The head-to-head average of 2.14 goals suggests moderately open games but with controlled tempo.

Lumezzane's recent form includes 3 points with a lower goals-against rate compared to Renate.

What To Watch In The Data

Lumezzane to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals total is 2.14, indicating moderately paced games with neither side dominating scoring.
  • This trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for controlled attacking phases rather than high-scoring affairs, aligning with Lumezzane's defensive strengths and Renate's vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lumezzane0.67
Avg goals scored
Renate0.67
Lumezzane1.33
Avg goals conceded
Renate2
Lumezzane33%
BTTS rate
Renate67%
Lumezzane33%
Over 2.5 goals
Renate67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams average 0.67 goals scored per game, but Renate concedes twice as many goals as Lumezzane. The head-to-head average of 2.14 goals suggests matches are moderately open but not high-scoring. The lower BTTS rate for Lumezzane (33%) versus Renate (67%) indicates Lumezzane games tend to be tighter defensively, supporting a cautious goals outlook.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLumezzane to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Lumezzane Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The of 2.5 for a Lumezzane win reflect a market underestimating their chances, given the model's 59% win probability. This creates a clear value opportunity, with the price offering a 19% positive edge, making the home win a compelling selection at current .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lumezzane

LWL
Last 51W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 2L
06 Sep 2026A Cittadella1-2
30 Aug 2026H Giana Erminio1-0
22 Aug 2026A Ospitaletto0-2

Renate

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
07 Sep 2026H Novara1-2
31 Aug 2026H Cittadella0-1
21 Aug 2026A Alcione1-3
Market aligned with main pickLumezzane to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Lumezzane Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Lumezzane's recent form includes earning 3 points with a better defensive record, conceding 1.33 goals per game compared to Renate's 2. Renate's lack of points and defensive struggles highlight their current difficulties, reinforcing Lumezzane's momentum and advantage heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Lumezzane wins
3Draws
2Renate wins
15 Aug 2026Lumezzane v Renate2-2
07 Mar 2026Renate v Lumezzane0-0
02 Nov 2025Lumezzane v Renate0-0
16 Mar 2025Lumezzane v Renate0-2
02 Nov 2024Renate v Lumezzane1-2
10 Feb 2024Renate v Lumezzane0-1
Market aligned with main pickLumezzane to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The seven previous meetings between these teams show an average of 2.14 goals per game, indicating moderately competitive encounters. While the sample is limited, it suggests neither side has dominated historically, but Lumezzane's current form and home advantage provide a stronger edge in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Lumezzane3
Played
Renate3
Lumezzane0.7
Avg goals for
Renate0.7
Lumezzane1.3
Avg goals against
Renate2
Lumezzane1
Clean sheets
Renate0
Market aligned with main pickLumezzane to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Lumezzane Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over the season, Lumezzane's defensive numbers stand out with fewer goals conceded, supporting their ability to control matches and limit opposition chances. Their modest scoring rate is balanced by defensive solidity, contrasting with Renate's higher goals against, which undermines their ability to secure points away from home.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
14Lumezzane33102-2
20Renate03003-4
Lumezzane's 14th place with 3 points versus Renate's 20th and zero points reflects early season pressure on Renate to improve results. While standings are early, the gap underscores Lumezzane's relative stability and better start, adding psychological and tactical weight to their home advantage in this contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Lumezzane Over 2.5
67%Renate Over 2.5
2.14H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals total is 2.14, indicating moderately paced games with neither side dominating scoring. This trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for controlled attacking phases rather than high-scoring affairs, aligning with Lumezzane's defensive strengths and Renate's vulnerabilities.

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Fixture links

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