Football Stats Hub

Lommel United crestLommel United
v
Charleroi crestCharleroi

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 16 Aug, 18:15

Lommel United v Charleroi Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charleroi enters this Jupiler Pro League clash against Lommel United with strong momentum, having secured three points from their opening fixture while scoring three goals and conceding just one. Lommel United, by contrast, have struggled to find the net, scoring only once and earning a single point. Charleroi's attacking prowess and higher league standing set the stage for a confident away performance, though Lommel's home resilience and recent BTTS trends suggest the match could still present tactical challenges and goal opportunities for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Charleroi to Win

  • Charleroi boasts a 64.5% to win, offering strong value at 2.2 .
  • Charleroi averages 24 shots and 10 shots on target per match, indicating offensive control.
  • Lommel United has yet to score more than one goal this season, highlighting their offensive struggles.
  • Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate this season, suggesting goal-scoring chances for both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Charleroi to win with a 64.5% chance, reflecting their superior attacking metrics and league position. Charleroi's high shot volume (24 per game) and clinical finishing contrast with Lommel United's limited offensive output. The away side's ability to create and convert chances underpins the in this pick. No price warning is needed as the offer positive value. The data quality is solid, with comprehensive stats supporting the selection.

Model Win Probability64.5%
Strong positive
Charleroi Shot Volume24 shots per game
Strong positive
Lommel United Offensive Output1 goal scored in season
Negative
Value Edge19% positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Charleroi's superior offensive firepower and higher league standing make them the clear choice to secure victory. Their ability to generate numerous quality chances contrasts with Lommel United's limited goal threat, indicating a tactical edge that should translate into a winning performance.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Charleroi to Win rationale

“Charleroi's attacking metrics and league position provide a compelling case for their win, especially given Lommel United's struggles to score. Their offensive depth and shot accuracy are key factors that could decide this match.”

Key Data Signals

Charleroi to Win evidence

Charleroi boasts a 64.5% to win, offering strong value at 2.2 .

Charleroi averages 24 shots and 10 shots on target per match, indicating offensive control.

Lommel United has yet to score more than one goal this season, highlighting their offensive struggles.

Both teams have a 100% BTTS rate this season, suggesting goal-scoring chances for both sides.

What To Watch In The Data

Charleroi to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Charleroi's games have consistently exceeded 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style.
  • Lommel United's matches also feature frequent goals, supporting expectations of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lommel United2
Avg corners for
Charleroi6
Lommel United8
Avg total corners
Charleroi8
Lommel United0
Avg yellow cards
Charleroi1
Lommel United9
Avg shots
Charleroi24
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 29%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Charleroi averages six corners and one yellow card per game, reflecting sustained attacking pressure and moderate discipline. Their high shot volume (24 shots with 10 on target) contrasts with Lommel United's lower averages, indicating Charleroi's territorial control and offensive intent.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lommel United1
Avg goals scored
Charleroi3
Lommel United1
Avg goals conceded
Charleroi1
Lommel United100%
BTTS rate
Charleroi100%
Lommel United0%
Over 2.5 goals
Charleroi100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season, and Charleroi's games have consistently featured over 2.5 goals. Lommel United's BTTS rate also stands at 100%, suggesting an open game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides, supporting an attacking match narrative.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Charleroi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Charleroi to Win is priced attractively at 2.2, reflecting a 45.5% implied chance versus the model's 64.5% win probability. This significant of 19% indicates the market underestimates Charleroi's chances, making the bet a positive-value opportunity without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lommel United

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
08 Aug 2026A St. Truiden1-1

Charleroi

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
09 Aug 2026H OH Leuven3-1
Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Charleroi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Charleroi's recent form shows a strong start with three points and three goals scored, contrasting with Lommel United's single point and one goal. Charleroi's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity underpins their and momentum heading into this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Lommel United wins
1Draws
0Charleroi wins
27 Oct 2021Charleroi v Lommel United0-0
Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The single previous meeting between Lommel United and Charleroi ended goalless, offering limited direct insight. However, current form and season data provide a stronger basis for predicting Charleroi's advantage in this encounter.
Season team stats

Jupiler Pro League

Lommel United2
Played
Charleroi2
Lommel United0.5
Avg goals for
Charleroi2
Lommel United1
Avg goals against
Charleroi0.5
Lommel United0
Clean sheets
Charleroi1
Market aligned with main pickCharleroi to WinBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Charleroi Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Charleroi's season statistics reveal a potent attack averaging high shots and goals, coupled with a solid defensive record conceding only one goal. Lommel United's lower scoring and defensive metrics emphasize the gulf in quality and consistency between the teams this season.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Charleroi622003
13Lommel United12011-1
Charleroi sits third in the league with three points, reflecting early-season strength and competitiveness. Lommel United's 11th place and single point highlight their struggles. While early in the season, the standings suggest Charleroi's superior form and quality advantage.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lommel United Over 2.5
100%Charleroi Over 2.5
0H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Charleroi's games have consistently exceeded 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style. Lommel United's matches also feature frequent goals, supporting expectations of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.