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Liverpool crestLiverpool
v
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League | Wed 09 Sep, 20:00

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Stats

Data last updated: Tue 29 Sep 2026, 03:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool face Atletico Madrid in UEFA Champions League on Wed 09 Sep, 20:00. Atletico have failed to score only twice in their last 24 group matches, while Liverpool have scored in nine consecutive competitive games. Liverpool's attack has scored in nine consecutive matches, with six multi-goal games, meeting Atletico's recent second-half defensive lapses.

BT4Y match pick

Liverpool to win and both teams to score

  • At 11/5, Liverpool to win and both teams to score implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Liverpool have scored six goals in three matches under Iraola, while Atletico have conceded six second-half goals recently.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Liverpool to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Liverpool have scored six goals in three matches under Iraola, while Atletico have conceded six second-half goals recently.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Negative
Liverpool have scored six goals in three matches under.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -4.1 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Liverpool Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because liverpool have scored six goals in three matches under Iraola, while Atletico have conceded six second-half goals recently. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Liverpool to win and both teams to score evidence

Liverpool have scored six goals in three matches under Iraola, while Atletico have conceded six second-half goals recently.

What To Watch In The Data

Liverpool to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Liverpool

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Liverpool yet.

Atletico Madrid

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Atletico Madrid yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 85% · edge -7.3 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
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Liverpool to WinBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Liverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Liverpool-
Avg goals scored
Atletico Madrid-
Liverpool-
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Madrid-
Liverpool-
BTTS rate
Atletico Madrid-
Liverpool-
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid-
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 46% · edge +8.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLiverpool to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 58% · edge -4.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Liverpool Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Liverpool to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Liverpool Over 2.5
-Atletico Madrid Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
Liverpool have scored six goals in three matches under Iraola, while Atletico have conceded six second-half goals recently.

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