Football Stats Hub

Lecce crestLecce
v
Bologna crestBologna

Serie A | Sun 11 Oct, 14:00

Lecce v Bologna Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 07:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lecce face Bologna in Serie A on Sun 11 Oct, 14:00. The visitors remain without a league victory under new manager Raffaele Palladino, but their impressive head-to-head record offers encouragement ahead of a potentially decisive encounter. Bologna's unbeaten run against Lecce and Lecce's defensive frailty underpin the away win tip.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Bologna to win

  • At 10/11, Bologna to win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 25%.
  • However, their entertaining 3-2 home success against Monza demonstrated an ability to punish vulnerable opponents.
  • Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Bologna.
  • Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Bologna to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Lecce sit 14 in the table, while Bologna sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Bologna to win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 52% while the model sits nearer 25% (-27.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Lecce Draw No Bet shows a +12.7 pts edge at 1.82.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 25% for Bologna to win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Bologna. However, their entertaining 3-2 home success against Monza demonstrated an ability to punish vulnerable opponents.

Model chance vs price25% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Negative
Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
However, their entertaining 3-2 home success against Monza demonstrated.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bologna Win is the preferred angle because however, their entertaining 3-2 home success against Monza demonstrated an ability to punish vulnerable opponents. Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Bologna. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Bologna to win evidence

However, their entertaining 3-2 home success against Monza demonstrated an ability to punish vulnerable opponents.

Lecce have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Bologna.

Bologna have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Bologna Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Lecce sit 14 in the table, while Bologna sit 9, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Bologna to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lecce1
    Avg goals scored
    Bologna0.6
    Lecce2
    Avg goals conceded
    Bologna1.2
    Lecce20%
    BTTS rate
    Bologna40%
    Lecce60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bologna20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 51% · edge +2 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 20% for Lecce and 40% for Bologna, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Serie A fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Lecce v Bolognacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 51% · edge -26.1 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Bologna Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Bologna to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lecce

    LWLLW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 3L
    20 Sep 2026A AC Milan0-3
    13 Sep 2026H Monza3-2
    07 Sep 2026A Cagliari0-1
    31 Aug 2026H AS Roma0-4
    23 Aug 2026A Venezia2-0

    Bologna

    DLDLL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 3L
    19 Sep 2026H Torino1-1
    13 Sep 2026A Napoli0-1
    06 Sep 2026H Sassuolo2-2
    31 Aug 2026A Atalanta0-1
    24 Aug 2026H Lazio0-1
    Market aligned with main pickBologna to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 25% vs implied 51% · edge -26.1 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Bologna Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Lecce Over 2.5
    20%Bologna Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lecce sit at 60% and Bologna sit at 20% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…