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Le Havre crestLe Havre
v
Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29

Ligue 1 | Sat 05 Sep, 19:45

Le Havre v Stade Brestois 29 Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Le Havre hosts Stade Brestois 29 in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have shown contrasting attacking and defensive traits early in the season. Stade Brestois 29 has been more prolific offensively, averaging 2 goals per game and generating high shot volumes, while Le Havre has struggled to score but maintains a moderate defensive record. The fixture promises territorial battles and sustained attacking phases, with both sides eager to improve their league standing. The corner count is expected to be high given Brest's attacking intent and Le Havre's defensive resilience, setting the stage for frequent set-piece opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Stade Brestois 29 averages 8.5 corners per game, Le Havre 6, combining for a strong corner volume.
  • Recent matches show Stade Brestois 29 with 100% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open play and attacking pressure.
  • Le Havre averages 13.5 shots per game, Brestois 29 26.5, reflecting offensive activity leading to corners.
  • Both teams have moderate fouling rates, contributing to set-piece chances and corner opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a strong value bet with a 69% chance against a 49.5% implied market probability, reflecting a significant edge. Stade Brestois 29's aggressive attacking style, evidenced by high shot and corner averages, combined with Le Havre's defensive approach, suggests frequent corner situations. The rating of 88% supports the reliability of this prediction. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on solid data and tactical context.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance49.5%
Strong positive
Value Edge19.5%
Strong positive
Confidence Level88%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a high-corner game as Stade Brestois 29's offensive pressure forces Le Havre into defensive clearances and set-piece situations. Brest's high shot volume and Le Havre's moderate defensive resilience create a tactical environment ripe for frequent corners, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling choice.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market analysis

“Stade Brestois 29's attacking intent combined with Le Havre's defensive posture typically generates numerous corner situations, making Over 9.5 Corners a strategically sound bet for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Stade Brestois 29 averages 8.5 corners per game, Le Havre 6, combining for a strong corner volume.

Recent matches show Stade Brestois 29 with 100% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open play and attacking pressure.

Le Havre averages 13.5 shots per game, Brestois 29 26.5, reflecting offensive activity leading to corners.

Both teams have moderate fouling rates, contributing to set-piece chances and corner opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.1, indicating moderately open games.
  • This tempo, combined with attacking intent, suggests a steady flow of chances and transitions that typically generate corners, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel context.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Le Havre6
Avg corners for
Stade Brestois 298.5
Le Havre10.5
Avg total corners
Stade Brestois 2910
Le Havre2.5
Avg yellow cards
Stade Brestois 291.5
Le Havre13.5
Avg shots
Stade Brestois 2926.5
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The teams' combined average of 14.5 corners per game aligns with the Over 9.5 Corners pick. High shot volumes, especially Brest's 26.5 shots per game, indicate offensive control and frequent wide attacks, which typically generate corners. Moderate fouling rates also contribute to set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Le Havre0.5
Avg goals scored
Stade Brestois 292
Le Havre1
Avg goals conceded
Stade Brestois 292
Le Havre50%
BTTS rate
Stade Brestois 29100%
Le Havre0%
Over 2.5 goals
Stade Brestois 29100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Stade Brestois 29's 100% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Le Havre's lower scoring output, suggesting open play and attacking transitions that often lead to corners. Both teams' BTTS rates indicate offensive intent, increasing the likelihood of sustained pressure and resulting corner kicks.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Le Havre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Le Havre to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively at 2.02, reflecting a market underestimation of the combined corner potential. The model's 69% chance indicates clear value, supported by both teams' corner generation patterns and tactical tendencies that favor set-piece frequency.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Le Havre

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
29 Aug 2026A Lyon1-1
23 Aug 2026H Monaco0-1

Stade Brestois 29

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
29 Aug 2026H Toulouse2-2
22 Aug 2026A Le Mans2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.9 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Le Havre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Le Havre to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form shows Stade Brestois 29 consistently producing matches with high corner counts, supported by their aggressive attacking style and high shot volumes. Le Havre's defensive resilience has not prevented corners, as their opponents often force set-piece situations, reinforcing the Over 9.5 Corners angle.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Le Havre wins
2Draws
6Stade Brestois 29 wins
08 Mar 2026Stade Brestois 29 v Le Havre2-0
29 Oct 2025Le Havre v Stade Brestois 291-0
26 Jan 2025Le Havre v Stade Brestois 290-1
06 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 29 v Le Havre2-0
03 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 29 v Le Havre1-0
20 Aug 2023Le Havre v Stade Brestois 291-2
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Le Havre to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
The ten previous meetings between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 have averaged 2.1 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While the sample is limited, it suggests a balanced matchup where attacking phases can lead to set-piece situations like corners, providing some background support for the corner market.
Season team stats

Ligue 1

Le Havre2
Played
Stade Brestois 292
Le Havre0.5
Avg goals for
Stade Brestois 292
Le Havre1
Avg goals against
Stade Brestois 292
Le Havre0
Clean sheets
Stade Brestois 290
Best odds for this sectionStade Brestois 29 to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 37% · edge +14.5 pts
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Load more odds for this section
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Le Havre Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Le Havre to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season-long data reveals Stade Brestois 29 averaging 8.5 corners per game and Le Havre 6, combining for a strong corner frequency. This sustained pattern supports the likelihood of surpassing 9.5 corners in this fixture, reflecting consistent offensive pressure and defensive clearances.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Stade Brestois 29220200
15Le Havre12011-1
While Le Havre sits 15th and Stade Brestois 29 11th, the league positions have limited direct impact on corner counts. However, both teams' desire to improve standings may encourage attacking play and pressing, indirectly increasing corner opportunities.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Le Havre Over 2.5
100%Stade Brestois 29 Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.1, indicating moderately open games. This tempo, combined with attacking intent, suggests a steady flow of chances and transitions that typically generate corners, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend panel context.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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