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Lazio crestLazio
v
Genoa crestGenoa

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 19:45

Lazio v Genoa Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 04:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lazio face Genoa in Serie A on Sun 30 Aug, 19:45. Lazio won only eight of 19 home league matches last season. Lazio have scored multiple goals in most recent wins over Genoa, while Genoa's attack remains weak with key absences.

BT4Y match pick

Lazio to Win

  • At 21/20, Lazio to Win implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 49%.
  • Lazio vs Genoa: Gattuso’s Home Test Meets a Severe Genoa Scoring Problem.
  • Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Genoa.
  • Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Lazio sit 3 in the table, while Genoa sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 49% for Lazio to Win sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Genoa. Lazio vs Genoa: Gattuso’s Home Test Meets a Severe Genoa Scoring Problem.

Model chance vs price49% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Neutral
Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Lazio vs Genoa: Gattuso’s Home Test Meets a Severe.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Lazio Win is the preferred angle because lazio vs Genoa: Gattuso’s Home Test Meets a Severe Genoa Scoring Problem. Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Genoa. Their central problem is therefore not merely results, but the lack of goals accompanying them.

Main risk

Their central problem is therefore not merely results, but the lack of goals accompanying them.

Key Data Signals

Lazio to Win evidence

Lazio vs Genoa: Gattuso’s Home Test Meets a Severe Genoa Scoring Problem.

Lazio have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for Genoa.

Lazio have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Lazio Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Lazio sit 3 in the table, while Genoa sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Lazio to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Lazio1
    Avg goals scored
    Genoa0
    Lazio0
    Avg goals conceded
    Genoa2
    Lazio0%
    BTTS rate
    Genoa0%
    Lazio0%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Genoa0%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 59% · edge +9.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Lazio

    W
    Last 51W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 0L
    24 Aug 2026A Bologna1-0

    Genoa

    L
    Last 50W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 1L
    22 Aug 2026H Napoli0-2
    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 48% · edge +0.9 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 49% vs implied 48% · edge +0.9 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Lazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Lazio to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    0%Lazio Over 2.5
    0%Genoa Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Lazio sit at 0% and Genoa sit at 0% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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