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Lazio crestLazio
v
Genoa crestGenoa

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 19:45

Lazio v Genoa Stats

Data last updated: Mon 31 Aug 2026, 11:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lazio host Genoa at the Stadio Olimpico under mounting pressure to break a recent scoring drought while maintaining their strong defensive record against this opponent. Lazio's tactical approach focuses on possession control and precise passing, aiming to neutralize Genoa's physical and direct style, which relies heavily on aerial duels and set-piece threats. With Lazio sitting ninth and Genoa fighting near the relegation zone, both teams bring contrasting moods and tactical plans to this Serie A clash, setting the stage for a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Lazio Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Lazio have won five of the last six meetings and kept four consecutive Serie A clean sheets against Genoa.
  • Lazio average 85.5% pass accuracy and 50.8% possession, controlling tempo but scoring only 21 goals in 22 matches.
  • Genoa rely on aerial duels, winning 18.1 per game, and pose set-piece danger with players like Leo Østigård and Ruslan Malinovskyi.
  • Recent form shows Lazio with a clean sheet and a narrow win, while Genoa have struggled to score and concede goals frequently.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Lazio Win & Under 2.5 Goals with a 50.7% chance, significantly higher than the implied 35.7% , indicating strong value. Lazio's historical control and defensive solidity against Genoa, combined with their ability to control possession and limit Genoa's direct threats, support a low-scoring home win. Genoa's defensive vulnerabilities and reliance on set pieces add to Lazio's chances of a narrow victory. The model is solid at 63%, reflecting consistent data across form, head-to-head, and season stats. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance vs Implied Odds50.7% vs 35.7%
Strong positive
Lazio Defensive Record vs GenoaFour consecutive clean sheets in Serie A
Strong positive
Lazio Possession and Passing50.8% possession, 85.5% pass accuracy
Positive
Genoa Aerial Duel Strength18.1 aerials won per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lazio's tactical control and historical defensive mastery over Genoa make a low-scoring home win the most plausible outcome. Lazio's possession-based style should limit Genoa's physical approach, while Genoa's defensive weaknesses and errors provide openings. This match is likely to be a disciplined, narrow victory for Lazio, reflecting their need to respond after recent underwhelming attacking displays.

Main risk

Their central problem is therefore not merely results, but the lack of goals accompanying them.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive control

“Lazio's ability to dictate play and maintain defensive discipline against Genoa's aerial and set-piece threats positions them well for a controlled, low-scoring win. Their challenge lies in converting chances, but their tactical setup and historical control provide a strong foundation for victory.”

Key Data Signals

Lazio Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Lazio have won five of the last six meetings and kept four consecutive Serie A clean sheets against Genoa.

Lazio average 85.5% pass accuracy and 50.8% possession, controlling tempo but scoring only 21 goals in 22 matches.

Genoa rely on aerial duels, winning 18.1 per game, and pose set-piece danger with players like Leo Østigård and Ruslan Malinovskyi.

Recent form shows Lazio with a clean sheet and a narrow win, while Genoa have struggled to score and concede goals frequently.

What To Watch In The Data

Lazio Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match stand around three, but Lazio's recent four consecutive clean sheets against Genoa in Serie A indicate a shift towards tighter, lower-scoring games.
  • This trend suggests a match tempo favoring defensive discipline and controlled attacking phases, supporting an Under 2.5 Goals outcome.
  • The balance between Lazio's possession and Genoa's physicality sets the stage for a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lazio1
Avg goals scored
Genoa0
Lazio0
Avg goals conceded
Genoa2
Lazio0%
BTTS rate
Genoa0%
Lazio0%
Over 2.5 goals
Genoa0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 59% · edge +9.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have shown low scoring rates recently, with Lazio averaging under one goal per game and Genoa conceding frequently but scoring modestly. Lazio's four consecutive clean sheets against Genoa in Serie A highlight a strong defensive trend, supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals scenario. Genoa's physical style may create chances, but Lazio's control should limit goal opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lazio

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
24 Aug 2026A Bologna1-0

Genoa

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
22 Aug 2026H Napoli0-2
Market aligned with main pickLazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
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Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Lazio's recent form includes a narrow 1-0 win with a clean sheet, reinforcing their defensive solidity and ability to grind out results despite scoring challenges. Genoa's form shows no points and two goals conceded recently, highlighting defensive fragility and offensive inconsistency. This contrast in momentum favors Lazio's disciplined approach and supports expectations of a low-scoring home victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Lazio622002
17Genoa02002-3
Lazio's ninth-place position with 29 points contrasts with Genoa's 17th place and 23 points, reflecting the home side's relative stability and mid-table security versus Genoa's relegation battle. The six-point gap adds pressure on Genoa to secure points, but Lazio's need to respond to recent criticism adds urgency. The standings context suggests Lazio's motivation to control the match and secure a narrow victory to maintain momentum.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The current of 9/5 for Lazio Win & Under 2.5 Goals offer clear value compared to the model's 50.7% chance. This pricing reflects market in Lazio's defensive strength and Genoa's scoring struggles. The price is attractive given Lazio's historical control and tactical edge, making this a positive value bet without major price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lazio6
Avg corners for
Genoa5
Lazio14
Avg total corners
Genoa10
Lazio4
Avg yellow cards
Genoa2
Lazio10
Avg shots
Genoa11
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Lazio average 6 corners and 10 shots per game with a solid 3 shots on target, indicating steady attacking pressure without excessive risk. Genoa's 5 corners and 11 shots per game reflect a direct style with frequent wide attacks and set-piece deliveries. Card averages show Lazio's higher fouling rate, possibly due to pressing intensity, while Genoa maintain discipline. The match should feature tactical fouling and set-piece battles influencing corners and shots.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

8Lazio wins
0Draws
2Genoa wins
30 Jan 2026Lazio v Genoa3-2
29 Sep 2025Genoa v Lazio0-3
23 Apr 2025Genoa v Lazio0-2
27 Oct 2024Lazio v Genoa3-0
19 Apr 2024Genoa v Lazio0-1
05 Dec 2023Lazio v Genoa1-0
Market aligned with main pickLazio to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The head-to-head record strongly supports Lazio, who have won five of the last six meetings and kept four straight Serie A clean sheets against Genoa. This control is a clear indicator of Lazio's ability to control the fixture historically, especially defensively. While Genoa's physical approach poses challenges, past results suggest Lazio's tactical setup effectively neutralizes Genoa's threats, reinforcing in a Lazio win with limited goals.
Season team stats

Serie A

Lazio2
Played
Genoa2
Lazio1
Avg goals for
Genoa0
Lazio0
Avg goals against
Genoa1.5
Lazio2
Clean sheets
Genoa0
Market aligned with main pickLazio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Lazio to WinBetfred guide price · model 63%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Lazio's season stats reveal a steady but unspectacular attack with 21 goals in 22 matches, balanced by a strong defense that has kept multiple clean sheets. Genoa's 25 goals scored are offset by 36 conceded, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Lazio's superior passing accuracy and possession metrics underpin their tactical control, while Genoa's reliance on aerial duels and set pieces reflects a more direct, physical style. These season-long trends align with a low-scoring Lazio win.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lazio Over 2.5
0%Genoa Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match stand around three, but Lazio's recent four consecutive clean sheets against Genoa in Serie A indicate a shift towards tighter, lower-scoring games. This trend suggests a match tempo favoring defensive discipline and controlled attacking phases, supporting an Under 2.5 Goals outcome. The balance between Lazio's possession and Genoa's physicality sets the stage for a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Lazio v Genoa prediction

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