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Lanus crestLanus
v
Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.

Liga Profesional Argentina | Tue 22 Sep, 01:15

Lanus v Estudiantes L.P. Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lanus hosts Estudiantes L.P. in a Liga Profesional Argentina clash where both sides have shown resilience and tactical discipline. Lanus sits slightly higher in the standings but Estudiantes L.P. has demonstrated a more efficient defense, conceding fewer goals recently. Both teams have similar recent form points, suggesting a competitive encounter. Estudiantes L.P.'s ability to capitalize on key moments and maintain defensive solidity could be decisive in this tightly poised fixture under the South American footballing style.

BT4Y best bet

Estudiantes L.P. to Win

  • holds a 42% to win, with a of 15% over the 3.7 .
  • Both teams average 1.2 goals per game, but Estudiantes L.P. concedes fewer goals (0.8 vs 1.0).
  • averages 6.8 shots on target per match, indicating offensive threat.
  • Lanus has a higher yellow card average (1.6 vs 3.2 for Estudiantes L.P.), suggesting more discipline risk for Estudiantes L.P.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Estudiantes L.P. to win based on their stronger defensive record, efficient shot conversion, and tactical discipline. Despite Lanus having a slight edge in standings, Estudiantes L.P.'s lower goals conceded and higher shots on target per game indicate a well-balanced attack and defense. The 15% at 3.7 reflects a market underestimation of Estudiantes L.P.'s chances, making this a compelling selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Defensive SolidityEstudiantes L.P. concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Lanus' 1.0
Strong positive
Offensive ThreatEstudiantes L.P. averages 6.8 shots on target per game
Positive
Market Value15% value edge at 3.7 odds
Strong positive
Recent FormBoth teams have 7 points in recent matches
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

is tactically disciplined with a solid defensive record that can frustrate Lanus. Their ability to generate quality shots on target and capitalize on chances underpins the in an away win. Lanus' recent form is competitive but Estudiantes L.P.'s balance between attack and defense gives them the edge in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical balance favoring Estudiantes L.P.

“combines defensive resilience with efficient attacking play, making them a strong candidate for an away victory despite Lanus' home standing.”

Key Data Signals

Estudiantes L.P. to Win evidence

Holds a 42% to win, with a of 15% over the 3.7 .

Both teams average 1.2 goals per game, but Estudiantes L.P. Concedes fewer goals (0.8 vs 1.0).

Averages 6.8 shots on target per match, indicating offensive threat.

Lanus has a higher yellow card average (1.6 vs 3.2 for Estudiantes L.P.), suggesting more discipline risk for Estudiantes L.P.

What To Watch In The Data

Estudiantes L.P. to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4, with both teams showing moderate scoring.
  • Both sides have a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a balanced tempo with potential for goals but not an open high-scoring affair.
  • The trend suggests a competitive match with goal opportunities for both teams.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Lanus5.8
Avg corners for
Estudiantes L.P.4.2
Lanus11
Avg total corners
Estudiantes L.P.6.6
Lanus1.6
Avg yellow cards
Estudiantes L.P.3.2
Lanus14.2
Avg shots
Estudiantes L.P.17.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 52% · edge -1.3 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
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Over 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Lanus averages more corners (5.8) and fewer yellow cards (1.6) than Estudiantes L.P., who average 4.2 corners but 3.2 yellows per game. Estudiantes L.P.'s higher card count reflects a more physical style, while their superior shots on target (6.8 vs 5.4) highlight offensive efficiency despite fewer set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lanus1.2
Avg goals scored
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Lanus1
Avg goals conceded
Estudiantes L.P.0.8
Lanus40%
BTTS rate
Estudiantes L.P.20%
Lanus40%
Over 2.5 goals
Estudiantes L.P.40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 46% · edge +4.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 24%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Both teams average 1.2 goals per game, with a low BTTS rate for Estudiantes L.P. (20%) compared to Lanus (40%). This suggests Estudiantes L.P. games tend to be tighter defensively, aligning with their lower goals conceded and indicating a match possibly decided by narrow margins.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
The 3.7 for Estudiantes L.P. to win offer clear value against the model's 42% win probability. This price sensitivity suggests the market underestimates Estudiantes L.P.'s chances, likely due to Lanus' higher league position. Improved or further defensive data would strengthen this value play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lanus

WWLDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
14 Sep 2026A Deportivo Riestra3-0
06 Sep 2026H Defensa Y Justicia1-0
29 Aug 2026A Boca Juniors0-1
25 Aug 2026H Argentinos JRS1-1
17 Aug 2026H Independiente1-3

Estudiantes L.P.

WLDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
12 Sep 2026H Platense2-1
06 Sep 2026A Velez Sarsfield0-1
31 Aug 2026H Newells Old Boys0-0
23 Aug 2026A Sarmiento Junin0-2
15 Aug 2026H Gimnasia L.P.4-0
Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Both teams have earned 7 points recently, but Estudiantes L.P.'s slightly better defensive record (0.8 goals conceded vs 1.0) and lower BTTS rate indicate more controlled performances. This defensive stability combined with efficient chance creation supports in an Estudiantes L.P.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Lanus wins
4Draws
3Estudiantes L.P. wins
13 Mar 2026Estudiantes L.P. v Lanus0-1
25 May 2024Lanus v Estudiantes L.P.2-1
17 Apr 2024Lanus v Estudiantes L.P.1-2
27 Nov 2023Estudiantes L.P. v Lanus1-1
13 Feb 2023Estudiantes L.P. v Lanus0-2
10 Oct 2022Estudiantes L.P. v Lanus3-1
Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately contested encounters. No dominant trend favors either side strongly, but Estudiantes L.P.'s recent defensive improvements and tactical discipline suggest they can edge this fixture despite historical parity.
Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Lanus26
Played
Estudiantes L.P.26
Lanus1.1
Avg goals for
Estudiantes L.P.1.1
Lanus1
Avg goals against
Estudiantes L.P.0.7
Lanus11
Clean sheets
Estudiantes L.P.12
Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
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Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
maintains a balanced season profile with fewer goals conceded and a solid shot conversion rate. Lanus' higher goals against and corners suggest more open games, but Estudiantes L.P.'s defensive discipline likely limits Lanus' scoring opportunities, favoring the away side.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Estudiantes L.P.311694312
6Lanus24166643
8Lanus1394143
11Estudiantes L.P.1093150
Lanus ranks 8th with 13 points, while Estudiantes L.P. is 11th with 10 points. The close standings reflect competitive parity, but Estudiantes L.P.'s defensive form and tactical discipline provide a subtle edge despite the lower table position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lanus Over 2.5
40%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4, with both teams showing moderate scoring. Both sides have a 40% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a balanced tempo with potential for goals but not an open high-scoring affair. The trend suggests a competitive match with goal opportunities for both teams.

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Fixture links

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