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Hellas Verona crestHellas Verona
v
Catanzaro crestCatanzaro

Serie B | Fri 16 Oct, 19:30

Hellas Verona v Catanzaro Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 19:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hellas Verona face Catanzaro in Serie B on Fri 16 Oct, 19:30. Mosquera's recent goals and Verona's 4.9 shots on target per game support their ability to score, while Catanzaro's low shot conversion and six league goals suggest a possible clean sheet for Verona.

BT4Y best bet

Hellas Verona to win

  • At 1.8, Hellas Verona to win implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
  • Verona's Home Attack Offers Encouragement
  • Hellas Verona have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Catanzaro.
  • Hellas Verona have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Hellas Verona to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Hellas Verona sit 7 in the table, while Catanzaro sit 20, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Hellas Verona to win sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Hellas Verona have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Catanzaro. Verona's Home Attack Offers Encouragement

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Strong positive
Hellas Verona have the stronger recent points return, taking 7.Visible data support
Positive
Hellas Verona have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Verona's Home Attack Offers EncouragementArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Hellas Verona Win is the preferred angle because verona's Home Attack Offers Encouragement Hellas Verona have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Catanzaro. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Hellas Verona to win evidence

Verona's Home Attack Offers Encouragement

Hellas Verona have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 3 for Catanzaro.

Hellas Verona have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Hellas Verona Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Hellas Verona sit 7 in the table, while Catanzaro sit 20, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Hellas Verona to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Hellas Verona2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Catanzaro0.8
    Hellas Verona1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Catanzaro1.8
    Hellas Verona80%
    BTTS rate
    Catanzaro60%
    Hellas Verona80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Catanzaro60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickHellas Verona to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 74%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Hellas Verona Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Hellas Verona to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Hellas Verona

    LWLWD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 3L
    11 Oct 2026A Modena2-3
    20 Sep 2026H Vicenza Virtus2-1
    11 Sep 2026A Benevento1-3
    06 Sep 2026H Arezzo5-0
    29 Aug 2026A Padova1-1

    Catanzaro

    LLWLL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 5L
    11 Oct 2026H Mantova1-3
    19 Sep 2026A Sampdoria1-2
    12 Sep 2026H Carrarese1-0
    05 Sep 2026A Sudtirol0-2
    30 Aug 2026A Pisa1-2
    Market aligned with main pickHellas Verona to WinBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Hellas Verona Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Hellas Verona Over 2.5
    60%Catanzaro Over 2.5
    3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Hellas Verona sit at 80% and Catanzaro sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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