Heerenveen

PEC Zwolle

Eredivisie | Sat 22 Aug, 20:00

Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heerenveen hosts PEC Zwolle in this Eredivisie clash, with Heerenveen showing early season promise by securing 4 points and demonstrating a balanced attack and defense. PEC Zwolle, struggling without points so far, face a tough challenge away from home. Heerenveen's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and efficient finishing, while PEC Zwolle have yet to find rhythm offensively. The match carries significance for both teams aiming to establish momentum, with Heerenveen favored to leverage home advantage and recent form to claim victory.

BT4Y best bet

Heerenveen to Win

Heerenveen has earned 4 points this season, while PEC Zwolle have none.
Heerenveen averages 10.5 shots and 6 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 3.4, suggesting potential for multiple goals.
Heerenveen ranks 7th in the league, comfortably above PEC Zwolle's 15th place.
Rivera leads Heerenveen with 5.63 shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting key attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66.1% chance for Heerenveen to win, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. Heerenveen's ability to generate over 10 shots per game with a high proportion on target underpins their goal threat. PEC Zwolle's lack of points and lower offensive output further tilt the probability. The at 1.6 offer a small positive , supported by Heerenveen's balanced season stats and home advantage. No significant data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent FormHeerenveen 4 points vs PEC Zwolle 0 points

Strong positive

Offensive PressureHeerenveen 10.5 shots/game, 6 SOT/game

Strong positive

Head-to-Head Goals3.4 average goals in last 10 matches

Positive

League PositionHeerenveen 7th vs PEC Zwolle 15th

Positive

Key Player ImpactM. Rivera 5.63 SOT/90, 1 goal scored

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Heerenveen's home advantage and superior attacking statistics make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances, combined with PEC Zwolle's early season struggles, supports backing Heerenveen for victory. The data-driven outlook aligns with tactical expectations of Heerenveen controlling the game and securing three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Heerenveen's consistent offensive pressure and home form set a strong foundation for victory, while PEC Zwolle's lack of points highlights their current challenges. This matchup favors the home side's tactical discipline and goal threat.”

Key Data Signals

Heerenveen to Win evidence

Heerenveen has earned 4 points this season, while PEC Zwolle have none.

Heerenveen averages 10.5 shots and 6 shots on target per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 3.4, suggesting potential for multiple goals.

Heerenveen ranks 7th in the league, comfortably above PEC Zwolle's 15th place.

What To Watch In The Data

Heerenveen to Win notes

The last 10 matches between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals, indicating a trend toward higher scoring games.
This suggests a match tempo that favors offensive opportunities and potential defensive lapses, aligning with Heerenveen's attacking style and PEC Zwolle's current defensive struggles.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Heerenveen3

Avg corners for

PEC Zwolle2.5

Heerenveen10.5

Avg total corners

PEC Zwolle10.5

Heerenveen1.5

Avg yellow cards

PEC Zwolle1

Heerenveen10.5

Avg shots

PEC Zwolle7.5

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 62% · edge +7.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price

Check odds @ 2

Heerenveen's average of 3 corners and 1.5 yellow cards per game suggests moderate attacking pressure and a disciplined defensive approach. Their 10.5 shots per game, with 6 on target, underline sustained offensive efforts. PEC Zwolle's data is limited but their disciplinary record indicates potential for fouls and cards, which may influence match flow.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heerenveen1.5

Avg goals scored

PEC Zwolle0.5

Heerenveen1

Avg goals conceded

PEC Zwolle2.5

Heerenveen50%

BTTS rate

PEC Zwolle50%

Heerenveen50%

Over 2.5 goals

PEC Zwolle50%

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 37% · edge +9.6 pts

2.7

Check odds @ 2.7

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

The average of 3.4 goals in the last 10 meetings indicates a history of open games with multiple scoring opportunities. Heerenveen's 50% over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS rate further support the likelihood of goals from both sides. PEC Zwolle's defensive vulnerabilities may contribute to a higher scoring fixture.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHeerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Heerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.35

Check odds @ 1.35

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

The for Heerenveen to win at 1.6 reflect a small positive compared to the model's 66.1% win probability. This pricing suggests in Heerenveen's chances, supported by their early season form and offensive metrics. While not a large margin, the represent a reasonable bet given the team's home advantage and PEC Zwolle's struggles.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heerenveen

Last 51W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 0L

16 Aug 2026A Ajax2-2

09 Aug 2026H Twente1-0

PEC Zwolle

Last 50W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 2L

16 Aug 2026A Twente1-3

09 Aug 2026H Ajax0-2

Market aligned with main pickHeerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Heerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.35

Check odds @ 1.35

Heerenveen's accumulation of 4 points early in the season, coupled with a positive goal difference, contrasts with PEC Zwolle's zero points and undefined goal data. This form disparity reflects Heerenveen's better execution and momentum, reinforcing their likelihood to control the match and secure a win.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Heerenveen wins

3Draws

1PEC Zwolle wins

15 Feb 2026Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle4-2

28 Nov 2025PEC Zwolle v Heerenveen2-1

09 Oct 2025Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle4-1

16 Feb 2025PEC Zwolle v Heerenveen1-1

06 Oct 2024Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle1-1

19 Jul 2024Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle5-2

Market aligned with main pickHeerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

The head-to-head record shows an average of 3.4 goals per game over 10 matches, highlighting a history of open contests. While this supports expectations for goals, it only weakly supports the outright win pick, as past results have varied. Current form and team strength provide stronger guidance for the outcome.

Season team stats

Eredivisie

Heerenveen2

Played

PEC Zwolle2

Heerenveen1.5

Avg goals for

PEC Zwolle0.5

Heerenveen1

Avg goals against

PEC Zwolle2.5

Heerenveen1

Clean sheets

PEC Zwolle0

Market aligned with main pickHeerenveen to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Heerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.35

Check odds @ 1.35

Heerenveen's season statistics reveal a balanced attack and defense, scoring 1.5 goals per game while conceding 1. Their 50% rate of over 2.5 goals matches the league average, indicating a capacity for open play. PEC Zwolle's limited data and poor results suggest defensive frailty and offensive challenges, favoring Heerenveen's superiority.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
6	Heerenveen	4	2	1	1	0	1
15	PEC Zwolle	0	2	0	0	2	-4

Heerenveen's 7th place standing with 4 points positions them comfortably above PEC Zwolle, who sit 15th without points. This gap reflects differing competitive trajectories and adds pressure on PEC Zwolle to respond, while Heerenveen can capitalize on and home advantage to maintain their position.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Heerenveen Over 2.5

50%PEC Zwolle Over 2.5

3.4H2H avg goals

The last 10 matches between these teams have averaged 3.4 goals, indicating a trend toward higher scoring games. This suggests a match tempo that favors offensive opportunities and potential defensive lapses, aligning with Heerenveen's attacking style and PEC Zwolle's current defensive struggles.

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Betting context

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Heerenveen v PEC Zwolle Stats

Match Report

Heerenveen to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Match Report

Heerenveen to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

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What To Watch In The Data

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Heerenveen

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