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Heart Of Midlothian crestHeart Of Midlothian
v
ST Mirren crestST Mirren

Premiership | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Heart Of Midlothian v ST Mirren Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Heart Of Midlothian hosts ST Mirren in a Premiership clash where Hearts sit comfortably near the top of the table, showcasing strong form with four wins and a draw in their last five league matches. Their high-possession style under Derek McInnes emphasizes control and clinical finishing, contrasting with ST Mirren's struggles in front of goal and a seven-match winless streak. The visitors face mounting pressure at home, lacking offensive threat and defensive solidity, setting the stage for a dominant Hearts performance aiming for a multi-goal victory.

BT4Y best bet

Hearts -1 to win

  • Hearts lead the league with a 67% win rate and strong offensive efficiency.
  • ST Mirren have failed to score in 58% of their home games this season.
  • Hearts concede only 0.83 goals per away match, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Previous meeting ended 2-0 to Hearts, reflecting recent control.
  • Hearts average 14.63 shots per match with a 13% conversion rate, nearly double ST Mirren's.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Hearts -1 to win highly with a 74% chance, reflecting their superior attacking and defensive metrics compared to ST Mirren. Hearts' ability to control possession and create quality chances, combined with ST Mirren's poor scoring record at home, supports the likelihood of a multi-goal victory. The price offers positive value with a 43.2% edge, making this a strong selection despite the inherent risks of away handicap bets. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Model chance74% model chance vs 30.8% implied (+43.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied chance74% model chance vs 30.8% implied (+43.2 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge74% model chance vs 30.8% implied (+43.2 pts)
Strong positive
Hearts offensive metricsVery strong finishing and set-piece threat
Strong positive
ST Mirren scoring form58% home games without scoring
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hearts' tactical control and clinical finishing make them well-positioned to secure a comfortable win against a struggling ST Mirren side. Their recent form and defensive resilience away from home provide a solid foundation for covering the -1 handicap, supported by ST Mirren's ongoing offensive difficulties.

Main risk

Lawrence Shankland remains the focal point of the attack with 11 goals, but keep an eye on Claudio Braga, who has contributed 10 goals and excels at exploiting spaces left by struggling.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based analysis

“Hearts combine possession control with efficient finishing, exploiting ST Mirren's defensive vulnerabilities and poor home scoring record to deliver a likely multi-goal victory.”

Key Data Signals

Hearts -1 to win evidence

Hearts lead the league with a 67% win rate and strong offensive efficiency.

ST Mirren have failed to score in 58% of their home games this season.

Hearts concede only 0.83 goals per away match, indicating defensive solidity.

Previous meeting ended 2-0 to Hearts, reflecting recent control.

What To Watch In The Data

Hearts -1 to win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9, with Hearts winning 67% of these encounters.
  • Recent matches have favored disciplined, lower-scoring outcomes with Hearts often securing clean sheets.
  • This trend suggests a controlled tempo with efficient finishing, aligning with the likelihood of a multi-goal Hearts win without high-scoring volatility.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Heart Of Midlothian1.8
Avg goals scored
ST Mirren1
Heart Of Midlothian1.2
Avg goals conceded
ST Mirren1.8
Heart Of Midlothian100%
BTTS rate
ST Mirren40%
Heart Of Midlothian80%
Over 2.5 goals
ST Mirren60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Given Hearts' strong defensive record conceding just 0.83 goals per away match and ST Mirren's poor home scoring average of 0.58 goals, a low-scoring game with BTTS No and under 3.5 goals is plausible. Hearts' tendency to control possession and limit opponent chances supports a disciplined defensive display, while ST Mirren's finishing struggles reduce the likelihood of both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
ST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The 74% for Hearts -1 to win sits against roughly 30.8% implied by the current price (+43.2 pts). Hearts concede only 0.83 goals per away match, while the Saints have fired blanks in 11 games this season.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Heart Of Midlothian

DLWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Kilmarnock1-1
15 Sep 2026A Falkirk1-2
06 Sep 2026H Dundee2-1
03 Sep 2026A Hibernian3-1
29 Aug 2026H ST Johnstone2-1

ST Mirren

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Dundee Utd0-3
09 Sep 2026A Rangers0-1
05 Sep 2026H Celtic1-2
02 Sep 2026A Kilmarnock1-0
30 Aug 2026H Motherwell3-3
Best odds for this sectionHeart Of Midlothian to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
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ST Mirren Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
ST Mirren to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Hearts have collected 10 points from their last five matches, scoring 1.8 goals per game while conceding 1.2, demonstrating both attacking efficiency and defensive stability. ST Mirren's 4 points in the same period, with just 1 goal per game and 1.8 conceded, highlight their struggles in both scoring and preventing goals, reinforcing Hearts' form advantage and likelihood to cover the handicap.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5
60%ST Mirren Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9, with Hearts winning 67% of these encounters. Recent matches have favored disciplined, lower-scoring outcomes with Hearts often securing clean sheets. This trend suggests a controlled tempo with efficient finishing, aligning with the likelihood of a multi-goal Hearts win without high-scoring volatility.

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