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Hammarby FF crestHammarby FF
v
Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

Allsvenskan | Sun 19 Jul, 15:30

Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF Stats

Data last updated: Sun 19 Jul 2026, 03:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hammarby FF hosts Degerfors IF in an Allsvenskan clash where the home side aims to maintain momentum after recovering from a mid-season wobble. Hammarby’s strong home form, with 16 points from seven matches and a potent attack scoring 28 goals in 13 games, contrasts with Degerfors’ struggles, winless in eight league outings and weakened by multiple midfield suspensions. The tactical battle will see Hammarby seek to control possession and break down Degerfors’ compact 4-4-2 defensive block, while Degerfors look to resist pressure and exploit counter-attacks. This match tests Hammarby’s patience and ruthlessness in attack against Degerfors’ resilience and defensive discipline.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 65%, above the 57% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Hammarby FF has scored 28 goals in 13 league matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Degerfors IF is winless in eight league games and missing key midfielders through suspension.
  • Hammarby averages 59.3% possession with 19.3 attempts and 6.1 shots on target per game in recent matches.
  • Hammarby earns 5.9 corners per game, sustaining pressure in advanced areas.
Price warning

Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 57% (-8.7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +22 pts edge at 1.95.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model supports Over 2.5 Goals based on Hammarby FF’s high offensive output and sustained attacking pressure, averaging over 19 attempts and 6 shots on target per game. Despite Degerfors IF’s defensive compactness and recent scoring struggles, Hammarby’s multiple goal threats, including Paulos Abraham and Nahir Besara who combine for 23 goals, increase the likelihood of a high-scoring match. The slightly short price suggests cautious staking, but the football context of Hammarby’s territorial control and Degerfors’ defensive vulnerabilities justifies the selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Hammarby FF attacking volume19.3 attempts and 6.1 shots on target per game
Strong positive
Key goal threatsPaulos Abraham and Nahir Besara combine for 23 goals
Strong positive
Degerfors IF defensive compactness4-4-2 shape with limited attacking output
Neutral
Price sensitivitySlightly short odds at 1.67 suggest reduced stake
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hammarby FF’s strong home form and attacking firepower make Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice, supported by their ability to sustain pressure and create multiple chances. Degerfors IF’s recent scoring difficulties and midfield absences further increase the likelihood of a high-scoring game favoring the hosts.

Main risk

The main risk is that Degerfors IF’s compact defensive block and midfield suspensions limit clear chances, potentially reducing goal volume despite Hammarby FF’s attacking pressure.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match attacking dynamics

“Hammarby’s combination of territorial control and multiple attacking threats creates a natural environment for goals, while Degerfors’ defensive struggles and suspensions add to the scoring potential in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Hammarby FF has scored 28 goals in 13 league matches, showing strong attacking form.

Degerfors IF is winless in eight league games and missing key midfielders through suspension.

Hammarby averages 59.3% possession with 19.3 attempts and 6.1 shots on target per game in recent matches.

Hammarby earns 5.9 corners per game, sustaining pressure in advanced areas.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last eight meetings, the average goals scored is 3.63, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters between these teams.
  • Recent trends show Hammarby FF’s matches frequently surpass 2.5 goals, supported by their attacking style and Degerfors IF’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting the trend will continue in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Hammarby FF5.8
Avg corners for
Degerfors IF5.4
Hammarby FF9.2
Avg total corners
Degerfors IF9.8
Hammarby FF1.6
Avg yellow cards
Degerfors IF2.2
Hammarby FF17.8
Avg shots
Degerfors IF12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Hammarby FF averages 6.5 corners and 18 shots per game, indicating sustained pressure and attacking control. Degerfors IF’s lower averages and defensive posture suggest they will concede territory and set-piece opportunities. Card data shows Degerfors players have a higher yellow card rate, reflecting a potentially physical defensive approach to disrupt Hammarby’s rhythm.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

full betting preview for Hammarby FF v Degerfors IFcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Hammarby FF1.4
Avg goals scored
Degerfors IF0.8
Hammarby FF1.6
Avg goals conceded
Degerfors IF1.6
Hammarby FF60%
BTTS rate
Degerfors IF60%
Hammarby FF60%
Over 2.5 goals
Degerfors IF40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 65% · edge -8.7 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Hammarby FF’s high scoring rate and attacking volume contrast with Degerfors IF’s limited goal output and recent shutouts. Both teams to score is less likely given Degerfors’ scoring struggles and Hammarby’s defensive solidity at home, supporting a scenario of multiple goals predominantly from the hosts, aligning with an Over 2.5 Goals outcome without BTTS.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 65% · edge -8.7 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Degerfors IF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Degerfors IF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Hammarby FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.67 with an implied chance of 59.9%, slightly above the model’s 56.7% chance, indicating a price-sensitive but reasonable selection. The reflect market in Hammarby FF’s offensive capabilities and Degerfors IF’s defensive vulnerabilities, though the slight shortness advises cautious stake sizing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Hammarby FF

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
12 Jul 2026H Kalmar FF2-0
05 Jul 2026A IF Elfsborg2-1
31 May 2026A BK Hacken2-3
24 May 2026H AIK Stockholm1-2
20 May 2026A Gais0-2

Degerfors IF

LLDLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
12 Jul 2026A Vasteras SK FK0-2
04 Jul 2026H Malmo FF0-1
31 May 2026H IF Brommapojkarna2-2
23 May 2026A Kalmar FF1-2
16 May 2026A Gais1-1
Best odds for this sectionDegerfors IF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 17% · edge +24.6 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Degerfors IF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Hammarby FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Recent form data shows Hammarby FF averaging 1.4 goals per game with a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals matches, reflecting consistent attacking output. Degerfors IF averages 0.8 goals per game with a 40% Over 2.5 rate, indicating limited scoring. Hammarby’s recent home performances and Degerfors’ winless streak underline the likelihood of a high-scoring match favoring the hosts.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Hammarby FF wins
2Draws
0Degerfors IF wins
03 Nov 2025Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF1-1
26 May 2025Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF1-0
25 May 2023Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF2-2
02 Apr 2023Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF3-1
22 Aug 2022Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF5-1
21 Apr 2022Degerfors IF v Hammarby FF0-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 65% · edge -8.7 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Degerfors IF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Hammarby FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The head-to-head sample of eight matches shows a strong scoring trend with an average of 3.63 goals per game, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals pick. Hammarby FF has dominated recent meetings, remaining unbeaten in the last eight encounters, which adds to their offensive potential in this match.
Season team stats

Allsvenskan

Hammarby FF14
Played
Degerfors IF13
Hammarby FF2.3
Avg goals for
Degerfors IF0.9
Hammarby FF1
Avg goals against
Degerfors IF1.8
Hammarby FF5
Clean sheets
Degerfors IF1
Best odds for this sectionDegerfors IF Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 17% · edge +24.6 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
Degerfors IF to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
12
Check odds @ 12
Hammarby FF Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Hammarby FF to WinBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Season-long stats reinforce Hammarby FF’s offensive strength, with 28 goals in 13 matches and high possession metrics supporting sustained pressure. Degerfors IF’s 12 goals in 12 matches and defensive frailties suggest vulnerability to conceding multiple goals. These profiles align with an Over 2.5 Goals scenario driven by Hammarby’s attacking control and Degerfors’ defensive challenges.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Hammarby FF261482418
14Degerfors IF1013247-11
Hammarby FF sits 2nd in the Allsvenskan with 23 points, reflecting strong overall form and home advantage. Degerfors IF’s 14th place and 10 points highlight their struggles and pressure to respond. While standings provide background, the tactical and form context better explains the expected goal volume in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Hammarby FF Over 2.5
40%Degerfors IF Over 2.5
3.63H2H avg goals
Over the last eight meetings, the average goals scored is 3.63, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters between these teams. Recent trends show Hammarby FF’s matches frequently surpass 2.5 goals, supported by their attacking style and Degerfors IF’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting the trend will continue in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Hammarby FF v Degerfors IF prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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