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Marseille crestMarseille
v
Nice crestNice

Ligue 1 | Sun 26 Apr, 19:45

Marseille v Nice Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 22:02 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Marseille face Nice in Ligue 1 on Sun 26 Apr, 19:45. Marseille have historically dominated this fixture at the Vélodrome, winning six of their last eight home meetings. Marseille have won six of their last eight home meetings with Nice, losing just once in that run.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Marseille Win

  • At 4/9, Marseille Win implies roughly 69%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.
  • Nice struggle on the road, netting just 16 times in 15 away games.
  • Marseille have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nice.
  • Marseille have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Marseille Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Marseille sit 5 in the table, while Nice sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Marseille Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 69% while the model sits nearer 51% (-18 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +26.9 pts edge at 2.75.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 51% for Marseille Win sits against roughly 69% implied by the current price. Marseille have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nice. Nice struggle on the road, netting just 16 times in 15 away games.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 69% implied
Negative
Marseille have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Marseille have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Nice struggle on the road, netting just 16 times.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Marseille Win is the preferred angle because nice struggle on the road, netting just 16 times in 15 away games. Marseille have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nice. It wasn’t a flawless performance, but it showed resilience, organisation, and just enough attacking bite to get the job done.

Main risk

It wasn’t a flawless performance, but it showed resilience, organisation, and just enough attacking bite to get the job done.

Key Data Signals

Marseille Win evidence

Nice struggle on the road, netting just 16 times in 15 away games.

Marseille have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Nice.

Marseille have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Marseille Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Marseille sit 5 in the table, while Nice sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Marseille Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Marseille7.4
    Avg corners for
    Nice5.2
    Marseille9.6
    Avg total corners
    Nice9.8
    Marseille2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Nice1.6
    Marseille16.6
    Avg shots
    Nice9.2
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +12.2 pts
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
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    Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Marseille1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Nice0.8
    Marseille1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Nice1.6
    Marseille60%
    BTTS rate
    Nice40%
    Marseille60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Nice40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 36% · edge +26.9 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 59% · edge -7.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Marseille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Marseille to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Marseille

    LWLLW
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    18 Apr 2026A Lorient0-2
    10 Apr 2026H Metz3-1
    05 Apr 2026A Monaco1-2
    22 Mar 2026H Lille1-2
    13 Mar 2026H Auxerre1-0

    Nice

    DDLLW
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 5L
    18 Apr 2026A Lille0-0
    12 Apr 2026H Le Havre1-1
    04 Apr 2026A Strasbourg1-3
    21 Mar 2026H Paris Saint Germain0-4
    14 Mar 2026A Angers2-0
    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 59% · edge -7.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Marseille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 79%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Marseille wins
    2Draws
    4Nice wins
    21 Nov 2025Nice v Marseille1-5
    26 Jan 2025Nice v Marseille2-0
    14 Sep 2024Marseille v Nice2-0
    24 Apr 2024Marseille v Nice2-2
    21 Oct 2023Nice v Marseille1-0
    05 Feb 2023Marseille v Nice1-3
    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 59% · edge -7.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Marseille to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Ligue 1

    Marseille34
    Played
    Nice36
    Marseille1.9
    Avg goals for
    Nice1.1
    Marseille1.3
    Avg goals against
    Nice1.7
    Marseille9
    Clean sheets
    Nice7
    Market aligned with main pickMarseille to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 59% · edge -7.6 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    Marseille Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Season data supports Marseille to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Marseille59341851118
    16Nice323471116-23
    Marseille sit in position 5, while Nice sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Marseille Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Marseille Over 2.5
    40%Nice Over 2.5
    3.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Marseille sit at 60% and Nice sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Marseille v Nice prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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