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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc

Serie A | Sun 30 Aug, 22:30

Gremio v Chapecoense-sc Stats

Data last updated: Tue 01 Sep 2026, 01:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gremio and Chapecoense-sc meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown a tendency for active wing play and set-piece involvement. Gremio, positioned 15th, seeks to leverage home advantage and pressure to improve their standing, while Chapecoense-sc, struggling near the bottom, will aim to disrupt and counterattack. Recent matches indicate a competitive tempo with both sides generating decent attacking opportunities, suggesting a dynamic encounter with frequent territorial shifts and set-piece battles likely to produce numerous corners.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Gremio averages 5.5 corners per match, Chapecoense-sc 4.4, combining for nearly 10 per game.
  • Both teams have moderate attacking output, encouraging wing play and crosses leading to corners.
  • Recent form shows Gremio and Chapecoense-sc matches often exceed 9.5 corners.
  • The model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 69% probability for over 9.5 corners, well above the implied market chance of 57.8%, signaling clear value. Both teams exhibit attacking styles that generate sustained pressure and wide play, reflected in their corner averages. Gremio's 5.5 and Chapecoense-sc's 4.4 corners per game combine to support this high corner count. The rating of 81 underscores the robustness of this prediction, making over 9.5 corners a compelling selection for this fixture.

Model Probability69% chance of over 9.5 corners
Strong positive
Combined Corner Average9.9 corners per game
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance57.8%
Positive
Confidence Level81
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wing attacks and set-piece situations, as both Gremio and Chapecoense-sc rely on wide play and crosses. The statistical evidence supports a high corner count, making over 9.5 corners a sensible bet given the teams' styles and recent corner averages.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“This fixture's tactical setup and recent corner data strongly indicate a high volume of corners, with both sides pushing wide and creating multiple set-piece chances.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Gremio averages 5.5 corners per match, Chapecoense-sc 4.4, combining for nearly 10 per game.

Both teams have moderate attacking output, encouraging wing play and crosses leading to corners.

Recent form shows Gremio and Chapecoense-sc matches often exceed 9.5 corners.

The model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.4, indicating open games with attacking intent.
  • This tempo often leads to increased wing play and transitions, which typically generate more corners, aligning with the over 2.5 goals trend panel and supporting a high corner count in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gremio0.8
Avg goals scored
Chapecoense-sc1.4
Gremio1.6
Avg goals conceded
Chapecoense-sc2.2
Gremio60%
BTTS rate
Chapecoense-sc60%
Gremio60%
Over 2.5 goals
Chapecoense-sc80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have moderate scoring rates but maintain attacking intent, reflected in their 60% BTTS rates and over 2.5 goals rates of 60% for Gremio and 80% for Chapecoense-sc. This attacking openness often correlates with increased wing play and set pieces, supporting a higher corner count in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
The over 9.5 corners market is priced attractively at 1.73 with an implied chance of 57.8%, while the model estimates a 69% probability, indicating positive value. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high corner count, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gremio5.5
Avg corners for
Chapecoense-sc5.25
Gremio12.5
Avg total corners
Chapecoense-sc9.25
Gremio3.25
Avg yellow cards
Chapecoense-sc1.75
Gremio11
Avg shots
Chapecoense-sc12.5
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Gremio averages 5.5 corners and Chapecoense-sc 4.4, with both teams generating around 11 shots per game. The combination of sustained pressure, fouling rates, and wide attacking play creates frequent corner opportunities, while card averages suggest physical contests that can lead to more set-piece situations.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gremio

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
23 Aug 2026A RB Bragantino0-1
16 Aug 2026A Atletico-MG0-3
08 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo2-1
26 Jul 2026H Fluminense1-1
18 Jul 2026A Mirassol1-2

Chapecoense-sc

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
23 Aug 2026H Sao Paulo1-0
16 Aug 2026H Bahia3-3
09 Aug 2026A Coritiba1-2
25 Jul 2026A Santos2-2
23 Jul 2026H Flamengo0-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Recent matches show Gremio averaging 5.5 corners and Chapecoense-sc 4.4, with both teams frequently exceeding 9.5 corners combined. This trend reflects their current attacking patterns and territorial battles, reinforcing the expectation of a high corner count in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Gremio wins
4Draws
2Chapecoense-sc wins
04 Jul 2026Gremio v Chapecoense-sc1-2
16 Mar 2026Chapecoense-sc v Gremio1-1
26 Jul 2022Chapecoense-sc v Gremio0-0
15 Apr 2022Gremio v Chapecoense-sc0-1
20 Nov 2021Chapecoense-sc v Gremio1-3
10 Aug 2021Gremio v Chapecoense-sc2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The ten previous encounters between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc have averaged 2.4 goals per game, suggesting open contests with attacking opportunities. While the sample is moderate, it indicates a tendency for dynamic play that can produce numerous corners, lending some support to the over 9.5 corners market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Gremio24
Played
Chapecoense-sc24
Gremio1.1
Avg goals for
Chapecoense-sc1
Gremio1.3
Avg goals against
Chapecoense-sc2
Gremio5
Clean sheets
Chapecoense-sc2
Best odds for this sectionChapecoense-sc Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Chapecoense-sc to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Gremio Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Gremio to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over the season, Gremio and Chapecoense-sc maintain corner averages that combine near 10 per match. Their attacking and defensive styles promote wing play and set-piece situations, supporting the over 9.5 corners market as a consistent feature of their games.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Gremio28247710-5
20Chapecoense-sc14242814-24
Gremio sits 15th and Chapecoense-sc 20th, both under pressure to improve results. This competitive context encourages aggressive wing play and pressing, likely increasing corner opportunities as both teams seek to create chances and capitalize on set pieces.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Gremio Over 2.5
80%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.4, indicating open games with attacking intent. This tempo often leads to increased wing play and transitions, which typically generate more corners, aligning with the over 2.5 goals trend panel and supporting a high corner count in this match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Gremio v Chapecoense-sc prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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