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Gremio vs Chapecoense: Home Weakness Meets Away Vulnerability in Brasileiro Survival Fight. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Gremio's home stability and Chapecoense's poor away defence support a Gremio win with both teams scoring. Despite Gremio's low recent scoring, Chapecoense's ability to score away and their defensive frailties make this combined outcome plausible. Absences on both sides add unpredictability but favour this scenario.
Chapecoense's poor away defence and recent scoring ability justify a 3-1 scoreline, while Gremio's home environment supports improved attacking output despite recent low averages. The reverse fixture and squad absences also suggest a goal conceded by Gremio.
Gremio host Chapecoense at Arena do Grêmio in Brasileiro gameweek 25 with both sides operating uncomfortably close to the wrong end of the table.
Gremio vs Chapecoense — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Gremio have better recent wins and home form than Chapecoense's away record.
Gremio have better recent wins and home form than Chapecoense's away record.
Chapecoense concede frequently away; Gremio's home scoring is improving.
Chapecoense concede 2.0 goals per away game; Gremio average 0.6 goals recently.
Three Punchy Stats
- Chapecoense have conceded 46 goals in 23 league matches, an average of 2.0 per game. Gremio’s misfiring attack therefore meets the clearest defensive weakness available to it.
- Gremio have averaged just 0.6 goals across their last five matches. Even against the league’s leakiest defence, their recent finishing gives Chapecoense a route into the contest.
- Chapecoense are winless in 15 consecutive away matches and have conceded in 16 straight on the road. If Gremio are to create breathing room above the relegation places, this is precisely the type of home fixture they need to exploit.
Scoring in Last 5 Matches
Recent attacking records for Gremio and Chapecoense are shown below.
Clean Sheets in Last 5 Matches
Recent defensive records for Gremio and Chapecoense are shown below.
The hosts are 15th on 25 points from 23 matches, only one point above the final relegation position, while Chapecoense sit bottom with 14 points.
The obvious contrast is between Gremio’s need to exploit home advantage and Chapecoense’s dreadful travelling record. Yet this is hardly a straightforward case of a stronger side facing accommodating opposition. Gremio’s recent attacking return has been poor enough to give the visitors genuine encouragement.
Gremio Need More Than Territorial Control
Luis Castro’s side have won six of their 23 league matches, drawing seven and losing ten, and their recent results explain why the table remains uncomfortable. A 3-0 defeat at Atletico Mineiro was followed by a 1-0 loss to RB Bragantino, before a goalless Copa do Brasil draw away to Internacional.
Across their last five matches, Gremio have averaged only 0.6 goals. That is the more revealing concern before facing the league’s weakest defence: creating an apparently favourable matchup is one thing, taking advantage of it is another.
There is at least evidence that returning home can help. Their recent Brasileiro sequence includes a 2-1 victory over Sao Paulo and a 1-1 draw with Fluminense at the Arena. Carlos Vinicius, their leading league scorer, therefore carries particular importance in a fixture where Gremio cannot afford another blunt attacking display.
Their preparation is complicated by personnel problems. Miguel Monsalve, Juan Nardoni, Dodi and Joao Pedro are among the absentees, while Erick Noriega is unavailable in the league. Danilo Barbosa, Villasanti and Krovinovic are among the midfield options as Castro manages a reduced group only days before the second Copa do Brasil quarter-final against Internacional.
Chapecoense’s Away Record Is the Bigger Warning
Chapecoense finally arrive with something positive behind them after beating Sao Paulo 1-0. It was only their second league victory in 23 matches, but after such a prolonged winless stretch its value extends beyond the three points.
The difficulty is transferring that improvement away from home. Chapecoense have failed to win their last 15 away matches and have conceded in 16 consecutive away fixtures. They have also failed to lead at half-time in those 15 away games.
That combination places considerable importance on the opening period. Falling behind has become a recurring problem on their travels, and a team conceding 46 goals in 23 league matches can ill afford to spend another match chasing.
There is some attacking resistance in their recent results. Chapecoense scored twice at Santos and three times against Bahia before shutting out Sao Paulo, so Gremio cannot assume the bottom side will simply fold. Their overall total of 23 league goals, though, sits alongside the division’s second-weakest attacking record.
Absences Reduce the Visitors’ Options
Rafael Lacerda also has significant availability problems. Yannick Bolasie, Bruno Tubarao, Rafael Carvalheira, Joao Paulo, Max Alves and Robert are among those sidelined, while Camilo cannot feature.
Those losses matter because Chapecoense already have limited margin for error. Their season record of two wins, eight draws and 13 defeats leaves recovery dependent on turning occasional competitive performances into sustained results.
The reverse fixture offers one useful reminder against treating this as predetermined. Chapecoense led through Walter Clar before Juan Nardoni equalised in first-half stoppage time for a 1-1 draw. Gremio’s wider five-match record in this matchup stands at two wins, two draws and one defeat.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Gremio to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Gremio vs Chapecoense 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Gremio to win and both teams to score @ 12/5
Gremio enter this fixture sitting 15th on 25 points from 23 matches, holding a single point above the relegation zone. Supporting the main selection requires targeting Chapecoense’s persistent away deficiencies alongside Gremio’s home record. Chapecoense occupy bottom place with 14 points and remain winless across 15 consecutive away fixtures, having conceded in 16 straight matches on the road. Gremio have built relative stability at the Arena do Grêmio, taking a 2-1 win against Sao Paulo and a 1-1 draw with Fluminense in recent league action.
While Chapecoense have conceded 46 goals in 23 matches—an average of 2.0 per game—their recent scoring output indicates they can still breach Gremio’s backline. The visitors scored twice at Santos and three times against Bahia before beating Sao Paulo 1-0. Gremio’s attack has produced only 0.6 goals per match over their last five outings, suffering defeats to Atletico Mineiro (3-0) and RB Bragantino (1-0). However, facing the division’s weakest defence allows leading scorer Carlos Vinicius to exploit Chapecoense’s inability to keep clean sheets outside home turf.
Personnel shortages complicate both sides, as Gremio miss Miguel Monsalve, Juan Nardoni, Dodi, and Joao Pedro while managing rotation before a Copa do Brasil quarter-final. Chapecoense are without Yannick Bolasie, Bruno Tubarao, and Rafael Carvalheira. Given that Chapecoense have conceded in 16 straight away matches yet scored six goals across three recent fixtures, combining a Gremio victory with both teams finding the net represents a logical assessment of these overlapping records.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Chapecoense have conceded 46 goals in 23 league matches, averaging 2.0 goals conceded per game.
- Chapecoense remain winless across 15 consecutive away fixtures and have conceded in 16 straight road matches.
- Gremio have averaged just 0.6 goals across their last five matches, but recently defeated Sao Paulo 2-1 at home.
Risk Factor: The main selection loses if Gremio keep a clean sheet or if their low scoring average leads to a draw or defeat.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Led by Carlos Vinicius, Gremio meet a side averaging 2.0 goals conceded per game on the road.
Conceded in 16 consecutive away matches and winless in 15 straight road fixtures.
⚔️ Pick 2: Gremio vs Chapecoense 3-1 @ 11/1
Selecting a 3-1 outcome for the correct-score selection builds on Chapecoense’s defensive numbers away from home. The bottom side have conceded 46 goals in 23 league matches, averaging 2.0 goals allowed per fixture. Across 15 away matches without a win, they have failed to hold a single opponent goalless, conceding in 16 consecutive road games overall. Although Gremio have averaged just 0.6 goals over their last five games across all competitions, returning to the Arena do Grêmio offers them the environment to improve their goal output against the league’s most porous backline.
Justifying Chapecoense’s single goal relies on their demonstrated ability to find the net despite overall league struggles. Rafael Lacerda’s team scored twice away at Santos and registered three goals against Bahia, proving they retain scoring threat against mid-table and higher opposition. Furthermore, the reverse fixture finished 1-1, with Chapecoense opening the scoring through Walter Clar before Juan Nardoni equalised. With Gremio missing key players such as Nardoni, Dodi, and Joao Pedro, the home side remain exposed to conceding a solitary goal.
Historical precedent from Gremio’s five-match record against Chapecoense includes two victories and two draws, reinforcing home superiority without guaranteeing a shutout. However, an exact scoreline bet remains inherently fragile, as a single additional goal or a missed chance from either team will defeat the selection. A 3-1 win reflects Chapecoense’s 2.0 goals conceded per match alongside their capacity to score on the road.
Risk Factor: The correct-score bet fails if Gremio score fewer than three goals or Chapecoense fail to score.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does backing Gremio to win and both teams to score require?
Gremio must win and Chapecoense must score at least one goal for the bet to win.
Why is a 3-1 scoreline plausible for this match?
Chapecoense concede frequently away, and Gremio can improve scoring at home against weak defence.
Does the correct score market include extra time or penalties?
No, it settles only on the score after 90 minutes plus injury time.
How does Chapecoense's away record affect total goal bets?
Their poor away defence increases the chance of multiple goals in the match.
Why are recent goal averages contrasting for both teams?
Gremio's low scoring meets Chapecoense's weak defence, creating a unique matchup.
How do absences affect match expectations?
Missing key players reduce depth and may increase defensive errors for both teams.
