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Granada CF
Sporting GijonSegunda División | Sat 30 May, 20:00
Granada CF v Sporting Gijon Stats
Data last updated: Sun 31 May 2026, 00:39 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Granada CF and Sporting Gijon meet in a Segunda División clash where disciplinary intensity is expected to be high. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities and aggressive play styles, with Sporting Gijon averaging a full 3.6 yellow cards per game and Granada CF close behind at 3.8. Recent matches suggest a physical contest with tactical fouling likely as both sides push for crucial points late in the season. The match promises a competitive edge with referees likely to issue multiple cautions as tensions rise in this mid-table battle.
Over 3.5 Cards
- Granada CF averages 3.8 yellow cards per game, indicating frequent fouls and disciplinary actions.
- Sporting Gijon concedes 3.6 yellow cards on average, reflecting a similarly aggressive approach.
- Both teams have recent form showing physical matches with multiple cautions issued.
- The model estimates a 75% chance of over 3.5 cards, supporting a high-card game scenario.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The model identifies a 75% probability for over 3.5 cards based on both teams' aggressive defensive styles and high average yellow card counts near 4 per match. Recent form data confirms a pattern of physical contests with frequent fouls. The match context of a mid-table clash with tactical intensity further supports the likelihood of multiple cautions. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation for bettors seeking a card-focused market.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Expect a physically charged match with both Granada CF and Sporting Gijon prone to committing fouls that draw cautions. The data highlights consistent disciplinary issues for both sides, making over 3.5 cards a logical choice. Tactical urgency and defensive lapses suggest referees will have multiple opportunities to issue cards, aligning well with the statistical forecast.
The main risk is a more disciplined refereeing approach or tactical restraint from either side that could reduce fouls and cards below the threshold.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · cards market
“This fixture’s disciplinary profile is shaped by two teams that defend aggressively and concede numerous fouls, making a high-card count very plausible. The consistent averages near four yellows per game underline the likelihood of over 3.5 cards.”
Key Data Signals
Over 3.5 Cards evidence
Granada CF averages 3.8 yellow cards per game, indicating frequent fouls and disciplinary actions.
Sporting Gijon concedes 3.6 yellow cards on average, reflecting a similarly aggressive approach.
Both teams have recent form showing physical matches with multiple cautions issued.
The model estimates a 75% chance of over 3.5 cards, supporting a high-card game scenario.
What To Watch In The Data
Over 3.5 Cards notes
- Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.8, indicating moderately open games.
- However, the focus here is on disciplinary trends, with recent matches showing a tempo that fosters fouls and cautions, supporting the over 3.5 cards scenario in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Market odds
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Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Granada CF
Sporting Gijon
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Season team stats
Segunda División
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Sporting Gijon | 58 | 42 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
| 14 | Granada CF | 51 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 17 | -4 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
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