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Giugliano crestGiugliano
v
Cosenza crestCosenza

Serie C - Girone C | Tue 15 Sep, 17:30

Giugliano v Cosenza Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Giugliano and Cosenza meet in a Serie C - Girone C clash where both teams have struggled defensively early in the season. Each side has managed just one point from their opening fixtures, with Giugliano conceding an average of 3.25 goals per game and Cosenza 2.25. Both teams have seen three-quarters of their recent matches surpass 2.5 goals, indicating an open game likely to feature multiple scoring opportunities. The fixture carries importance as both clubs seek to improve their standings and find attacking rhythm, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Giugliano concedes 3.25 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Cosenza allows 2.25 goals per match, also showing defensive frailty.
  • Both teams have a 75% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 4 goals per game, indicating open play.
  • Both sides have scored and conceded in half of their recent matches, supporting attacking openness.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 75.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting the defensive weaknesses and attacking tendencies of both Giugliano and Cosenza. The high over 2.5 rate for each team and the average of 4 goals in their recent head-to-head clashes support this expectation. The at 2.07 offer positive value against the implied 48.3% chance, making this an attractive bet. The data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in the statistical signals.

Model Chance75.9%
Strong positive
Implied Chance48.3%
Positive
Value Edge27.6%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate75% both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals4 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Giugliano and Cosenza have shown defensive frailties early in the season. Their propensity for conceding goals and recent head-to-head scoring patterns suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a sound tactical and statistical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“Giugliano and Cosenza's defensive records and mutual history point to a match ripe for goals, making Over 2.5 a compelling selection based on both form and fixture context.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Giugliano concedes 3.25 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Cosenza allows 2.25 goals per match, also showing defensive frailty.

Both teams have a 75% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals recently.

Head-to-head meetings average 4 goals per game, indicating open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored reached 4 per game, highlighting a trend towards open, high-tempo encounters.
  • This sample suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals continuing in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Giugliano1.5
Avg goals scored
Cosenza0.5
Giugliano3.25
Avg goals conceded
Cosenza2.25
Giugliano50%
BTTS rate
Cosenza50%
Giugliano75%
Over 2.5 goals
Cosenza75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with a 50% BTTS rate each, suggesting games often feature goals at both ends. The average of 4 goals in their two recent meetings further supports an expectation of open play and multiple scoring chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Giugliano Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Giugliano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Cosenza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Cosenza to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 2.07, reflecting a positive value opportunity given the model's 75.9% probability. The significant of 27.6% indicates the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making this a price-sensitive bet worth consideration.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Giugliano

LLLD
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
11 Sep 2026A Audace Cerignola0-4
05 Sep 2026H Sorrento0-2
28 Aug 2026A Casarano3-4
21 Aug 2026H Scafatese3-3

Cosenza

DLLL
Last 50W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 3L
12 Sep 2026H Cavese0-0
07 Sep 2026A Catania0-4
29 Aug 2026H Potenza1-2
22 Aug 2026A Audace Cerignola1-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 75% · edge -0.5 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Giugliano Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 56%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Giugliano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Cosenza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Cosenza to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form shows both Giugliano and Cosenza have struggled defensively, conceding an average of over two goals per game. Their matches have consistently featured multiple goals, reinforcing the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Giugliano wins
0Draws
1Cosenza wins
07 Feb 2026Giugliano v Cosenza3-0
24 Sep 2025Cosenza v Giugliano4-1
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Giugliano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Cosenza to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The two recent meetings between Giugliano and Cosenza have averaged 4 goals per match, indicating a history of open games with multiple scoring opportunities. This head-to-head trend supports expectations for a high-scoring contest in the upcoming fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone C

Giugliano4
Played
Cosenza4
Giugliano1.5
Avg goals for
Cosenza0.5
Giugliano3.3
Avg goals against
Cosenza2.3
Giugliano0
Clean sheets
Cosenza1
Best odds for this sectionGiugliano Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 56% vs implied 56% · edge -0.5 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Giugliano to WinBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Cosenza Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Cosenza to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
Season-long defensive stats reveal Giugliano concedes 3.25 goals per game and Cosenza 2.25, indicating porous defenses. This trend supports a high-scoring game, as both teams have difficulty containing opponents.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
18Giugliano14013-7
19Cosenza14013-7
Both teams sit near the bottom of the Serie C - Girone C table with just one point each, increasing the urgency to secure a win. This pressure may lead to more open play and attacking risk-taking, favoring a goals-heavy match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Giugliano Over 2.5
75%Cosenza Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored reached 4 per game, highlighting a trend towards open, high-tempo encounters. This sample suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals continuing in this fixture.

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