Gimnasia M.

Union Santa Fe

Liga Profesional Argentina | Sat 01 Aug, 19:30

Gimnasia M. v Union Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Fri 31 Jul 2026, 04:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

and Union Santa Fe meet in a Liga Profesional Argentina clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity and tactical discipline. sits 7th with a solid defensive record, while Union Santa Fe is 10th, known for their aggressive pressing and physical style. Recent matches suggest a contest with high fouling risk and tactical fouls as both sides look to control midfield battles and disrupt rhythm. The fixture's stakes and playing styles set the stage for a potentially card-heavy encounter, with both teams eager to assert control in this tightly contested league.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

averages 2.6 yellow cards per game, Union Santa Fe 3.4, indicating frequent fouling.
Union Santa Fe's M. Estigarribia has a high card risk with 7 yellows and 1.88 fouls per 90 minutes.
Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers who contribute to physical duels and tactical fouling.
Recent form shows both teams involved in matches with disciplinary intensity, supporting a high card count.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 75% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, supported by both teams' aggressive playing styles and high average yellow cards per match. Union Santa Fe's higher foul rate and key players like M. Estigarribia increase the likelihood of multiple bookings. Gimnasia M.'s defensive approach also contributes to frequent fouls. The data quality is strong with comprehensive player stats, reinforcing in this card-heavy prediction.

Model Chance75% probability for Over 3.5 Cards

Strong positive

Team Card AveragesGimnasia M. 2.6, Union Santa Fe 3.4 yellows per game

Strong positive

Key Player Card RiskM. Estigarribia with 7 yellows and 1.88 fouls/90

Strong positive

Playing StylePhysical and tactical fouling tendencies

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically intense match with both teams engaging in tactical fouling to disrupt play. Union Santa Fe's aggressive style and Gimnasia M.'s defensive resilience suggest a high likelihood of multiple yellow cards. The data supports Over 3.5 Cards as a fitting reflection of the match dynamics and player behavior.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Cards market

“This fixture's competitive edge and player profiles indicate a high volume of fouls and bookings, making Over 3.5 Cards a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Averages 2.6 yellow cards per game, Union Santa Fe 3.4, indicating frequent fouling.

Union Santa Fe's M. Estigarribia has a high card risk with 7 yellows and 1.88 fouls per 90 minutes.

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers who contribute to physical duels and tactical fouling.

Recent form shows both teams involved in matches with disciplinary intensity, supporting a high card count.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating open play.
Although this panel focuses on goals, the tempo and openness often correlate with increased fouling and cards, reinforcing the card market's relevance for this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Gimnasia M.3.8

Avg corners for

Union Santa Fe5.2

Gimnasia M.9

Avg total corners

Union Santa Fe8.6

Gimnasia M.2.6

Avg yellow cards

Union Santa Fe3.4

Gimnasia M.13.8

Avg shots

Union Santa Fe14.2

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 52% · edge +3.4 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Union Santa Fe averages more corners and shots, reflecting offensive pressure that often leads to defensive fouls and cards. Both teams' shot volumes and fouling patterns suggest sustained pressure and tactical fouling, supporting a higher card count.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gimnasia M.1

Avg goals scored

Union Santa Fe1.4

Gimnasia M.1.4

Avg goals conceded

Union Santa Fe1.6

Gimnasia M.40%

BTTS rate

Union Santa Fe80%

Gimnasia M.40%

Over 2.5 goals

Union Santa Fe60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 74%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 48%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Both teams have modest scoring rates but high fouling and physical play, indicating that while goals may be limited, disciplinary actions are more frequent. Union Santa Fe's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Gimnasia M.'s 40%, highlighting differing attacking efficiencies but consistent physical engagement.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Gimnasia M. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Gimnasia M. to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 56%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Union Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

The Over 3.5 Cards market aligns well with the model's 75% probability, reflecting strong data support. The pricing appears balanced without significant warning flags, suggesting a standard stake approach is appropriate for this bet.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gimnasia M.

LWWLW

Last 53W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 2D 4L

28 Jul 2026A San Lorenzo0-1

24 Jul 2026H Central Cordoba de Santiago1-0

04 May 2026H Defensa Y Justicia2-1

26 Apr 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-5

21 Apr 2026H Lanus1-0

Union Santa Fe

DLWDD

Last 51W 3D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 4D 4L

25 Jul 2026A Platense2-2

12 May 2026A Belgrano Cordoba0-2

10 May 2026A Independ. Rivadavia2-1

02 May 2026H Talleres Cordoba1-1

27 Apr 2026A Velez Sarsfield2-2

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 65% · edge +14.9 pts

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

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Gimnasia M. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Gimnasia M. to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Union Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

Union Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Recent matches for both teams show a pattern of multiple yellow cards, with Union Santa Fe particularly prone to disciplinary actions. This trend reinforces the likelihood of Over 3.5 Cards as both sides maintain aggressive and tactical approaches in their latest fixtures.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Gimnasia M. wins

0Draws

1Union Santa Fe wins

03 Feb 2026Union Santa Fe v Gimnasia M.4-0

18 Apr 2024Union Santa Fe v Gimnasia M.1-2

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Gimnasia M. to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

Union Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

The two recent meetings between Gimnasia M. and Union Santa Fe have seen an average of 3.5 goals, suggesting open and competitive games. While goal data is limited, the intensity of these encounters supports the expectation of physical challenges and a higher card count in this fixture.

Season team stats

Liga Profesional Argentina

Gimnasia M.18

Played

Union Santa Fe19

Gimnasia M.0.8

Avg goals for

Union Santa Fe1.5

Gimnasia M.1.3

Avg goals against

Union Santa Fe1.3

Gimnasia M.5

Clean sheets

Union Santa Fe5

Best odds for this sectionGimnasia M. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 53% · edge +10.3 pts

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

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Gimnasia M. to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Union Santa Fe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Union Santa Fe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Season-long data reveals consistent card accumulation, with Union Santa Fe averaging 3.4 yellows and Gimnasia M. This sustained disciplinary record underpins the expectation for a card-heavy encounter in this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
8	Union Santa Fe	21	16	5	6	5	4
11	Gimnasia M.	19	16	5	4	7	-8
7	Gimnasia M.	3	2	1	0	1	0
10	Union Santa Fe	1	1	0	1	0	0

and Union Santa Fe are mid-table, their positions reflect competitive matches with high stakes. The pressure to secure points in this tight league context contributes to aggressive play and fouling, indirectly supporting a higher card count.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Gimnasia M. Over 2.5

60%Union Santa Fe Over 2.5

3.5H2H avg goals

Over the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating open play. Although this panel focuses on goals, the tempo and openness often correlate with increased fouling and cards, reinforcing the card market's relevance for this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Gimnasia M. v Union Santa Fe Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Gimnasia M.

Union Santa Fe

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Football Stats Hub

Gimnasia M. v Union Santa Fe Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Gimnasia M.

Union Santa Fe

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