Football Stats Hub

Gillingham crestGillingham
v
Cambridge United crestCambridge United

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

Gillingham v Cambridge United Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 11:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gillingham face Cambridge United in EFL Trophy on Tue 22 Sep, 19:00. The hosts have turned an ugly opening into three straight wins, while Cambridge have gone four unbeaten after a mixed start to life in League One. Gillingham vs Cambridge United: Form Lines Collide at Priestfield.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Gillingham Asian Handicap +0

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 71%, above the 37% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 2/5, Gillingham Asian Handicap +0 implies roughly 71%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 37%.
  • The more revealing contrast is defensive.
Price warning

Gillingham Asian Handicap +0 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 71% while the model sits nearer 37% (-34.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 37% for Gillingham Asian Handicap +0 sits against roughly 71% implied by the current price. The more revealing contrast is defensive.

Model chance vs price37% model chance against roughly 71% implied
Negative
The more revealing contrast is defensive.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -34.1 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Gillingham Win is the preferred angle because the more revealing contrast is defensive. Cambridge are creating enough, but conceding too often

Main risk

Cambridge are creating enough, but conceding too often.

Key Data Signals

Gillingham Asian Handicap +0 evidence

The more revealing contrast is defensive.

What To Watch In The Data

Gillingham Asian Handicap +0 notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 42% · edge -4.4 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Gillingham to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Gillingham-
    Avg goals scored
    Cambridge United-
    Gillingham-
    Avg goals conceded
    Cambridge United-
    Gillingham-
    BTTS rate
    Cambridge United-
    Gillingham-
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cambridge United-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 50% · edge +4 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 71%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 51%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; the clean-sheet route needs defensive and away-attacking data to support it.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Gillingham

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Gillingham yet.

    Cambridge United

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Cambridge United yet.

    Market aligned with main pickGillingham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 42% · edge -4.4 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Gillingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 46%
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Gillingham Over 2.5
    -Cambridge United Over 2.5
    2.67H2H avg goals
    The more revealing contrast is defensive.

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