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Gibraltar crestGibraltar
v
Andorra crestAndorra

UEFA Nations League | Sun 27 Sep, 17:00

Gibraltar v Andorra Stats

Data last updated: Sun 18 Oct 2026, 11:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gibraltar face Andorra in UEFA Nations League on Sun 27 Sep, 17:00. Gibraltar have lost 17 of their last 20 competitive home games, underlining the scale of the task behind turning recent improvement into Nations League points.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 73%, above the 27% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 4/11, Under 2 implies roughly 73%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Risk Factor: Gibraltar's recent high-scoring friendlies and Andorra conceding twice to Malta could push total goals above 2.5.
Price warning

Under 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 73% while the model sits nearer 27% (-46.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.62.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Under 2 sits against roughly 73% implied by the current price. Risk Factor: Gibraltar's recent high-scoring friendlies and Andorra conceding twice to Malta could push total goals above 2.5.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 73% implied
Negative
Risk Factor: Gibraltar's recent high-scoring friendlies and Andorra conceding.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -46.8 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking output suggest a low-scoring game. Gibraltar’s friendlies have changed the immediate mood around their results, but Sunday asks whether that improvement can survive a return to competitive football.

Main risk

Gibraltar’s friendlies have changed the immediate mood around their results, but Sunday asks whether that improvement can survive a return to competitive football.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking output suggest a low-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gibraltar

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Gibraltar yet.

Andorra

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
24 Sep 2026H Malta1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 64% · edge -2.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Gibraltar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Andorra to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Gibraltar to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Andorra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubGibraltar v Andorra predictionfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gibraltar-
Avg goals scored
Andorra1
Gibraltar-
Avg goals conceded
Andorra2
Gibraltar-
BTTS rate
Andorra100%
Gibraltar-
Over 2.5 goals
Andorra100%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 77% · edge -50.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Gibraltar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Andorra to WinBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Gibraltar to WinBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Andorra Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Gibraltar Over 2.5
100%Andorra Over 2.5
0.67H2H avg goals
Risk Factor: Gibraltar's recent high-scoring friendlies and Andorra conceding twice to Malta could push total goals above 2.5.

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