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Forfar Athletic crestForfar Athletic
v
Annan Athletic crestAnnan Athletic

League Two | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Forfar Athletic v Annan Athletic Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This League Two clash features Forfar Athletic hosting Annan Athletic in a tightly contested fixture. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Forfar Athletic struggling defensively, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game, while Annan Athletic have been more solid at the back, allowing just one goal per match. Annan sit slightly higher in the table and have edged recent encounters, suggesting they may have the tactical edge in this encounter. The match promises a competitive battle with Annan Athletic aiming to capitalize on their defensive stability and recent momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Annan Athletic to Win

  • Annan Athletic have a 58% to win, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 40.8%.
  • Forfar Athletic concede 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Annan Athletic concede only 1 goal per game, showing defensive resilience.
  • Recent form favors Annan Athletic with 6 points compared to Forfar Athletic's 4 points in recent matches.
  • The head-to-head average goals of 2.7 suggest a moderately open game but with defensive edges favoring Annan.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Annan Athletic to win based on their stronger defensive record and slightly better recent form. Despite the market undervaluing Annan Athletic with implying only a 40.8% chance, the model calculates a 58% probability, highlighting clear value. Annan's ability to limit goals against and their position just above Forfar Athletic in the standings support this . The data quality is solid, with no significant limitations, making this a reliable prediction for the fixture.

Model Probability58% chance of Annan Athletic win
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance40.8% chance
Positive
Defensive StrengthAnnan concede 1 goal per game vs Forfar's 2.4
Strong positive
Recent FormAnnan Athletic 6 points vs Forfar 4 points
Positive
Data QualityGood data coverage for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Annan Athletic's defensive solidity and recent form provide a tactical and statistical foundation for expecting them to secure victory. Their ability to limit goals against and maintain consistent performances away from home makes them the favored side in this League Two encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Annan Athletic's disciplined defensive structure and recent momentum make them a strong candidate to take all three points, especially given Forfar Athletic's defensive struggles.”

Key Data Signals

Annan Athletic to Win evidence

Annan Athletic have a 58% to win, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 40.8%.

Forfar Athletic concede 2.4 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Annan Athletic concede only 1 goal per game, showing defensive resilience.

Recent form favors Annan Athletic with 6 points compared to Forfar Athletic's 4 points in recent matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Annan Athletic to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderately open game tempo.
  • This trend suggests that while goals are possible, defensive organization, especially from Annan Athletic, may keep the match from becoming high scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Forfar Athletic1
Avg goals scored
Annan Athletic1.2
Forfar Athletic2.4
Avg goals conceded
Annan Athletic1
Forfar Athletic40%
BTTS rate
Annan Athletic40%
Forfar Athletic80%
Over 2.5 goals
Annan Athletic40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -5.7 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have moderate BTTS rates at 40%, and the head-to-head average goals of 2.7 indicate a moderately scoring game. Forfar Athletic's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Annan Athletic's more conservative approach, suggesting a balanced contest with potential for goals but not an overly open game.

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Season team stats

League Two

Forfar Athletic7
Played
Annan Athletic7
Forfar Athletic1
Avg goals for
Annan Athletic1.3
Forfar Athletic1.9
Avg goals against
Annan Athletic1.3
Forfar Athletic2
Clean sheets
Annan Athletic3
Market aligned with main pickAnnan Athletic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Annan Athletic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Season-long statistics highlight Annan Athletic's stronger defensive record, conceding only 1 goal per game, which contrasts with Forfar Athletic's 2.4 goals conceded. This defensive solidity is a key factor in Annan's winning chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Forfar Athletic

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
12 Sep 2026A Spartans1-5
05 Sep 2026H Stranraer0-3
28 Aug 2026A Edinburgh City1-1
22 Aug 2026A Clyde0-3
15 Aug 2026H Stirling Albion3-0

Annan Athletic

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 4L
12 Sep 2026H Elgin City2-0
05 Sep 2026A Kelty Hearts1-2
29 Aug 2026H Dumbarton2-0
22 Aug 2026A Edinburgh City0-1
15 Aug 2026H Clyde1-2
Market aligned with main pickAnnan Athletic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 83%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Annan Athletic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Recent form data shows Annan Athletic with 6 points from their last matches compared to Forfar Athletic's 4 points, reflecting slightly better momentum. Annan's ability to secure points while conceding fewer goals underpins their heading into this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAnnan Athletic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
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Annan Athletic Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The current for Annan Athletic to win offer clear value, with the market underestimating their chances at 40.8% implied probability compared to the model's 58%. This discrepancy suggests that the price is attractive for bettors looking for a positive expected return.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Forfar Athletic wins
3Draws
3Annan Athletic wins
02 May 2026Annan Athletic v Forfar Athletic1-1
21 Feb 2026Forfar Athletic v Annan Athletic2-1
13 Dec 2025Annan Athletic v Forfar Athletic3-1
20 Sep 2025Forfar Athletic v Annan Athletic1-0
12 Jul 2025Annan Athletic v Forfar Athletic1-1
18 Mar 2023Forfar Athletic v Annan Athletic2-1
Market aligned with main pickAnnan Athletic to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head record over ten matches shows an average of 2.7 goals per game, reflecting a balanced historical contest. While this supports the possibility of goals, it only weakly supports the Annan Athletic win pick, making current form and defensive stats more decisive.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Annan Athletic973040
7Forfar Athletic87223-6
Annan Athletic sit 5th in the League Two table with 9 points, just above Forfar Athletic in 7th with 8 points. This close proximity indicates a competitive fixture, but Annan's higher position reflects slightly better consistency and form in the league context.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Forfar Athletic Over 2.5
40%Annan Athletic Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderately open game tempo. This trend suggests that while goals are possible, defensive organization, especially from Annan Athletic, may keep the match from becoming high scoring.

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