Fluminense

Bahia

Serie A | Thu 30 Jul, 01:30

Fluminense v Bahia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 29 Jul 2026, 03:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense and Bahia meet in a Serie A clash where both sides have shown attacking intent and physical play, setting the stage for a contest with frequent set-piece opportunities. Fluminense, ranked 4th, and Bahia, 6th, are close in points, adding competitive edge to this encounter. Recent matches highlight a pattern of sustained pressure and territorial battles, likely to generate numerous corners. Both teams' tactical approaches emphasize wing play and crossing, increasing the likelihood of corner kicks throughout the game.

BT4Y best bet

Over 8.5 Corners

Fluminense averages 5 corners per match, Bahia 8.25, combining for a high corner count.
Both teams press aggressively, leading to frequent defensive clearances and set-piece chances.
Recent form shows Fluminense and Bahia matches often exceed 8.5 corners.
Physical midfield battles and wing attacks contribute to sustained pressure and corner opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 75% chance for Over 8.5 Corners based on both teams' attacking styles and corner averages. Bahia's high average of 8.25 corners per game and Fluminense's 5 corners per match suggest a combined total well above the threshold. The match context of close league standings and competitive intensity supports sustained pressure and wing play, increasing corner likelihood. No price warning is needed, and the data quality is solid, making this a standard stake recommendation.

Model Chance75%

Strong positive

Fluminense Avg Corners5 per match

Positive

Bahia Avg Corners8.25 per match

Strong positive

Recent Form PressureHigh

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a high-tempo match with both Fluminense and Bahia pushing wide and forcing defensive clearances, generating numerous corners. The combination of their average corner counts and competitive stakes suggests Over 8.5 Corners is a solid pick with tactical and statistical backing.

Main risk

Set pieces are often described as marginal moments, but that is misleading.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market rationale

“Fluminense and Bahia's attacking wing play and midfield battles create a natural environment for frequent corners, making Over 8.5 Corners a compelling market to watch in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Over 8.5 Corners evidence

Fluminense averages 5 corners per match, Bahia 8.25, combining for a high corner count.

Both teams press aggressively, leading to frequent defensive clearances and set-piece chances.

Recent form shows Fluminense and Bahia matches often exceed 8.5 corners.

Physical midfield battles and wing attacks contribute to sustained pressure and corner opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 8.5 Corners notes

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.3, indicating moderately open games.
While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking intent seen in these fixtures also correlate with frequent corner situations, as both teams engage in wide play and pressing that generate set-piece chances.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fluminense5

Avg corners for

Bahia8.25

Fluminense10.4

Avg total corners

Bahia12

Fluminense2.6

Avg yellow cards

Bahia2.75

Fluminense12.4

Avg shots

Bahia17

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 58% · edge +11.2 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Fluminense averages 12.4 shots with 3.2 on target, Bahia 17 shots with 4.5 on target, indicating active offensive play. Combined with their corner averages and average yellow cards around 2.6-2.75, this suggests a physical, contested match with many fouls and set-piece opportunities, driving corner counts higher.

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Useful next reads

more Serie A analysis full betting preview for Fluminense v Bahia corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense1

Avg goals scored

Bahia1.6

Fluminense1

Avg goals conceded

Bahia1.2

Fluminense80%

BTTS rate

Bahia80%

Fluminense20%

Over 2.5 goals

Bahia40%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

Check odds @ 2

While both teams have moderate goal-scoring rates, the focus here is on set-piece frequency rather than goals. Both Fluminense and Bahia have high BTTS rates, suggesting open play that often leads to corners through attacking pressure and defensive clearances.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Bahia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%

2.85

Check odds @ 2.85

Bahia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

The Over 8.5 Corners market aligns well with the model's 75% probability, reflecting strong data support from both teams' corner averages. The current market status is standard with no significant price sensitivity, indicating a balanced value proposition for bettors.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

DDDLW

Last 51W 3D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 4D 3L

26 Jul 2026A Gremio1-1

18 Jul 2026H RB Bragantino1-1

01 Jun 2026A Cruzeiro1-1

23 May 2026A Mirassol0-1

16 May 2026H Sao Paulo2-1

Bahia

DDWWL

Last 52W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 5D 3L

26 Jul 2026H Corinthians1-1

21 Jul 2026A Atletico-MG1-1

17 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-0

30 May 2026H Botafogo2-1

26 May 2026A Coritiba2-3

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

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Bahia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%

2.85

Check odds @ 2.85

Bahia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Recent matches for both teams show a tendency towards matches with many corners, supported by their aggressive pressing and wing attacks. Fluminense's 5 and Bahia's 8.25 average corners per game reflect a pattern of sustained pressure and territorial control, reinforcing the Over 8.5 Corners pick.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Fluminense wins

2Draws

3Bahia wins

12 Jul 2026Fluminense v Bahia2-0

05 Feb 2026Bahia v Fluminense1-1

07 Dec 2025Fluminense v Bahia2-0

10 Sep 2025Fluminense v Bahia2-0

28 Aug 2025Bahia v Fluminense1-0

10 Aug 2025Bahia v Fluminense3-3

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Bahia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.3 goals per game, reflecting balanced contests. While goal totals are moderate, the matches often feature sustained wing play and physical duels, supporting a higher corner count. This historical context moderately supports the Over 8.5 Corners selection.

Season team stats

Serie A

Fluminense20

Played

Bahia20

Fluminense1.5

Avg goals for

Bahia1.5

Fluminense1.3

Avg goals against

Bahia1.3

Fluminense3

Clean sheets

Bahia5

Best odds for this sectionBahia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts

2.85

Check odds @ 2.85

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Bahia to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Fluminense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Season-long data confirms Fluminense and Bahia generate high corner counts per match, with Bahia particularly strong at 8.25 corners on average. Their attacking styles and defensive setups contribute to frequent corner situations, validating the Over 8.5 Corners bet from a season perspective.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
4	Fluminense	33	20	9	6	5	5
6	Bahia	31	20	8	7	5	4

Fluminense and Bahia sit close in the Serie A table, ranked 4th and 6th respectively, with only two points separating them. This proximity adds competitive intensity, likely encouraging attacking play and tactical battles on the wings, which historically lead to increased corner counts.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Fluminense Over 2.5

40%Bahia Over 2.5

2.3H2H avg goals

Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.3, indicating moderately open games. While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking intent seen in these fixtures also correlate with frequent corner situations, as both teams engage in wide play and pressing that generate set-piece chances.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Fluminense v Bahia Stats

Match Report

Over 8.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Fluminense

Bahia

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Football Stats Hub

Fluminense v Bahia Stats

Match Report

Over 8.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Fluminense

Bahia

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