Fenerbahçe

AS Roma

UEFA Champions League | Thu 10 Sep, 17:45

Fenerbahçe v AS Roma Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 08:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fenerbahçe hosts AS Roma in a high-stakes UEFA Champions League group stage opener. Fenerbahçe enters with strong recent form, having collected 11 points and scoring 1.4 goals per game while conceding just 0.6. Roma, with limited recent data, face a challenging away trip. The match promises tactical intensity as Fenerbahçe aims to capitalize on home advantage and momentum, while Roma will seek to impose their attacking talents. The fixture's early timing in the group adds pressure for both sides to secure valuable points.

BT4Y best bet

Fenerbahçe to Win

Fenerbahçe has earned 11 points recently, showing strong form.
Fenerbahçe averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 per game.
Fenerbahçe averages 14 shots and 6 on target per match, indicating attacking threat.
Player Talisca leads Fenerbahçe with 4 goals and 2.47 shots on target per 90 minutes.
Roma’s limited data increases uncertainty but Fenerbahçe’s home form is a key edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Fenerbahçe to win, reflecting their superior recent form, efficient attack, and solid defense. The implied of 3.3 offer strong value compared to the market's 30% implied chance. Fenerbahçe’s attacking metrics, including high shot volume and Talisca’s goal threat, support this . Roma’s limited recent data and away challenge further tilt the probability towards Fenerbahçe. This pick is a well-supported value bet with standard staking recommended.

Recent FormFenerbahçe 11 points vs Roma 0 points

Strong positive

Goal Scoring and DefenseFenerbahçe 1.4 GF, 0.6 GA per game

Strong positive

Shot VolumeFenerbahçe 14 shots, 6 SOT per game

Positive

Player ImpactTalisca 4 goals, 2.47 SOT/90

Positive

Data QualityLimited data for Roma increases uncertainty

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Fenerbahçe’s recent form and home attacking efficiency make them the clear favorite to win this Champions League opener. Their ability to create and convert chances, led by Talisca, combined with Roma’s limited recent data, suggests Fenerbahçe can control the match and secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Fenerbahçe’s attacking momentum and defensive solidity position them strongly against a Roma side with limited recent form data. Their home advantage and key players like Talisca should be decisive factors in this encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Fenerbahçe to Win evidence

Fenerbahçe has earned 11 points recently, showing strong form.

Fenerbahçe averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes only 0.6 per game.

Fenerbahçe averages 14 shots and 6 on target per match, indicating attacking threat.

Player Talisca leads Fenerbahçe with 4 goals and 2.47 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Fenerbahçe to Win notes

Recent trends show a low over 2.5 goals rate for Fenerbahçe at 20%, indicating matches tend to be moderately scored with defensive control.
The limited head-to-head data means this trend is more reflective of Fenerbahçe’s style, suggesting a tactical game with selective goal-scoring chances.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fenerbahçe

WDWWD

Last 53W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 2D 0L

26 Aug 2026A Lyon2-1

18 Aug 2026H Lyon1-1

11 Aug 2026A Sturm Graz1-0

05 Aug 2026H Sturm Graz2-0

29 Jul 2026A Gornik Zabrze1-1

AS Roma

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for AS Roma yet.

Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Fenerbahçe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Fenerbahçe’s recent form is impressive, securing 11 points with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game. This contrasts with Roma’s lack of recent form data, giving Fenerbahçe a momentum advantage and boost heading into this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
17	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Fenerbahçe	0	0	0	0	0	0

Both teams start with zero points in the group stage, but Fenerbahçe’s current ranking and form suggest they are better positioned to seize early points. The group context adds pressure to perform, making a strong home win important for Fenerbahçe’s campaign.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fenerbahçe1.4

Avg goals scored

AS Roma-

Fenerbahçe0.6

Avg goals conceded

AS Roma-

Fenerbahçe60%

BTTS rate

AS Roma-

Fenerbahçe20%

Over 2.5 goals

AS Roma-

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Fenerbahçe’s recent matches show a modest over 2.5 goals rate of 20% and a 60% BTTS rate, suggesting a balanced approach with some defensive discipline. Roma’s data is limited, but Fenerbahçe’s ability to score consistently while conceding few goals indicates a controlled game with selective attacking bursts.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

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Fenerbahçe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

The current of 3.3 for a Fenerbahçe win reflect strong value against the model’s 74% win probability. This price offers an attractive edge, indicating the market underestimates Fenerbahçe’s chances given their form and home advantage. The pick is a positive-value opportunity with no price warnings.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Fenerbahçe wins

0Draws

0AS Roma wins

Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

No previous meetings between Fenerbahçe and AS Roma exist, so head-to-head data offers no direct insight. The analysis relies on current form, player quality, and tactical context rather than historical encounters.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Fenerbahçe5

Avg corners for

AS Roma-

Fenerbahçe9.5

Avg total corners

AS Roma-

Fenerbahçe2.5

Avg yellow cards

AS Roma-

Fenerbahçe13.5

Avg shots

AS Roma-

Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +5.7 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 52%

1.92

Check odds @ 1.92

Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Fenerbahçe averages 5.4 corners and 2.6 yellow cards per match, reflecting active wing play and a moderately aggressive defensive style. Their high shot volume (14 per game) and shots on target (6) underline sustained offensive pressure, which can generate set-piece opportunities and force defensive fouls.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahçe6

Played

AS Roma0

Fenerbahçe1.3

Avg goals for

AS Roma0

Fenerbahçe0.5

Avg goals against

AS Roma0

Fenerbahçe3

Clean sheets

AS Roma0

Market aligned with main pickFenerbahçe to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

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Fenerbahçe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Fenerbahçe’s season stats reveal a well-balanced team with effective attack and solid defense, scoring 1.4 goals per game while maintaining a low concession rate of 0.6. This balance supports their likelihood to control the match tempo and limit Roma’s scoring opportunities.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Fenerbahçe Over 2.5

-AS Roma Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Recent trends show a low over 2.5 goals rate for Fenerbahçe at 20%, indicating matches tend to be moderately scored with defensive control. The limited head-to-head data means this trend is more reflective of Fenerbahçe’s style, suggesting a tactical game with selective goal-scoring chances.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Fenerbahçe v AS Roma Stats

Match Report

Fenerbahçe to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Fenerbahçe

AS Roma

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Football Stats Hub

Fenerbahçe v AS Roma Stats

Match Report

Fenerbahçe to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Fenerbahçe

AS Roma

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