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FC Luzern crestFC Luzern
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FC Basel 1893 crestFC Basel 1893

Super League | Sun 13 Sep, 15:30

FC Luzern v FC Basel 1893 Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 meet in the Swiss Super League with both sides showing attacking intent early in the season. Luzern has scored an average of 1.8 goals per game while Basel boasts 2.2, reflecting open play and offensive . Basel's perfect over 2.5 goals record and Luzern's high BTTS rate suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals. Both teams sit mid-table, adding competitive edge without extreme pressure, setting the stage for an engaging contest with attacking emphasis from both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • FC Basel 1893 has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating strong scoring matches.
  • FC Luzern averages 15.2 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing active offensive pressure.
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates: Luzern at 80%, Basel at 100%, supporting goal-scoring from both sides.
  • Recent form shows Luzern scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.4 per game, Basel scoring and conceding 2.2, highlighting open games.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 over the last 10 matches, close to the over 3.5 threshold but suggesting a trend towards multiple goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 52.7% chance, slightly above the 50% implied by , reflecting the attacking profiles of both teams. Basel's perfect over 2.5 record and Luzern's strong shot volume and BTTS rate underpin this view. The match context of open play and offensive supports the likelihood of a high-scoring game. No data limitations affect , making this a solid pick with a small positive . Standard staking is advised given the moderate level.

Model Chance52.7%
Positive
Implied Chance50%
Positive
Value Edge2.7%
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesBasel 100%, Luzern 60%
Strong positive
Shot VolumeLuzern 15.2, Basel 10.6 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as both FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 have shown strong offensive form and willingness to commit players forward. Basel's perfect over 2.5 goals record this season and Luzern's high shot volume suggest a lively game with multiple goals. This pick aligns with the teams' recent scoring trends and tactical openness.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring and match tempo

“Both sides have demonstrated attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling angle in this fixture. The data supports a match with frequent goal-scoring opportunities and an open tempo.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

FC Basel 1893 has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating strong scoring matches.

FC Luzern averages 15.2 shots per game with 5.4 on target, showing active offensive pressure.

Both teams have high BTTS rates: Luzern at 80%, Basel at 100%, supporting goal-scoring from both sides.

Recent form shows Luzern scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.4 per game, Basel scoring and conceding 2.2, highlighting open games.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, slightly below the over 3.5 threshold but indicating a trend of open games.
  • Basel's perfect over 2.5 goals rate this season and Luzern's attacking stats suggest the tempo and chance quality could push this match over 3.5 goals.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

FC Luzern4.4
Avg corners for
FC Basel 18933
FC Luzern11
Avg total corners
FC Basel 18939.4
FC Luzern3.6
Avg yellow cards
FC Basel 18932.2
FC Luzern15.2
Avg shots
FC Basel 189310.6

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Luzern1.8
Avg goals scored
FC Basel 18932.2
FC Luzern1.4
Avg goals conceded
FC Basel 18932.2
FC Luzern80%
BTTS rate
FC Basel 1893100%
FC Luzern60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Basel 1893100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 50% · edge +2.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have high BTTS rates, with Basel at 100% and Luzern at 80%, indicating both sides regularly score and concede. Luzern averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, Basel 2.2 for and against, supporting a game with multiple goals and open exchanges.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
FC Luzern Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
FC Luzern to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
FC Basel 1893 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
FC Basel 1893 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced around 2.0 with an implied chance of 50%, slightly below the model's 52.7% probability. This small positive suggests the price fairly reflects the attacking potential but is not a strong value bet. movement upwards would enhance value .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Luzern

DWDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
05 Sep 2026A BSC Young Boys3-3
02 Sep 2026H FC Vaduz2-1
29 Aug 2026A Servette FC1-1
22 Aug 2026H Lausanne1-0
09 Aug 2026A FC ST. Gallen2-2

FC Basel 1893

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 3L
06 Sep 2026H FC Lugano1-3
03 Sep 2026H FC Sion1-2
29 Aug 2026A BSC Young Boys3-3
22 Aug 2026A FC Zurich2-1
09 Aug 2026H FC Thun4-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 80% vs implied 74% · edge +6 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
FC Luzern Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
FC Luzern to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
FC Basel 1893 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
FC Basel 1893 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Recent form shows FC Basel 1893 scoring and conceding 2.2 goals per game, with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, underscoring their open matches. FC Luzern's 60% over 2.5 rate and 80% BTTS rate reflect similarly open games with attacking intent and defensive vulnerability, supporting the over 3.5 goals pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3FC Luzern wins
3Draws
4FC Basel 1893 wins
22 Feb 2026FC Luzern v FC Basel 18934-2
17 Dec 2025FC Luzern v FC Basel 18931-2
28 Sep 2025FC Basel 1893 v FC Luzern1-2
24 May 2025FC Basel 1893 v FC Luzern4-0
09 Mar 2025FC Luzern v FC Basel 18931-1
06 Feb 2025FC Basel 1893 v FC Luzern2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
FC Luzern to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
FC Basel 1893 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The last 10 meetings between FC Luzern and FC Basel 1893 have averaged 2.7 goals per game, showing a history of relatively open matches. While this is below the over 3.5 goals mark, the current season's attacking form and defensive frailties suggest a higher scoring potential this time around.
Season team stats

Super League

FC Luzern7
Played
FC Basel 18937
FC Luzern1.4
Avg goals for
FC Basel 18931.7
FC Luzern1.9
Avg goals against
FC Basel 18931.7
FC Luzern1
Clean sheets
FC Basel 18931
Best odds for this sectionFC Luzern Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +2.4 pts
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Load more odds for this section
FC Luzern to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
FC Basel 1893 to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
FC Basel 1893 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Season-long stats reveal both teams have potent attacks and leaky defenses. Luzern scores 1.8 and concedes 1.4 goals per game, while Basel scores and concedes 2.2. These figures indicate matches with multiple goals and frequent goal exchanges, fitting the over 3.5 goals profile.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5FC Basel 18931073130
6FC Luzern97232-3
Both teams sit mid-table, Luzern 6th and Basel 5th, with 9 and 10 points respectively. This position suggests competitive but not desperate play, allowing both sides to focus on attacking football without extreme defensive caution, supporting a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%FC Luzern Over 2.5
100%FC Basel 1893 Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, slightly below the over 3.5 threshold but indicating a trend of open games. Basel's perfect over 2.5 goals rate this season and Luzern's attacking stats suggest the tempo and chance quality could push this match over 3.5 goals.

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