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Everton crestEverton
v
Manchester City crestManchester City

Premier League | Mon 04 May, 20:00

Everton v Manchester City Stats

Data last updated: Sun 14 Jun 2026, 18:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Everton face Manchester City in Premier League on Mon 04 May, 20:00. Manchester City visit Everton in a crucial Premier League clash. Manchester City are in relentless form with six straight wins, yet their away matches rarely see explosions of goals, with eight of their last nine featuring under 3.5.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Everton Win

  • At 11/10, Everton Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Scoring Patterns: Controlled Away Days
  • Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Everton.
  • Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Everton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Everton sit 13 in the table, while Manchester City sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Everton Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 27% (-20.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +42.5 pts edge at 3.25.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Everton Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Everton. Scoring Patterns: Controlled Away Days

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Negative
Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11.Visible data support
Positive
Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Scoring Patterns: Controlled Away DaysArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Everton Win is the preferred angle because scoring Patterns: Controlled Away Days Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Everton. However, beneath the surface lies a subtle vulnerability.

Main risk

However, beneath the surface lies a subtle vulnerability.

Key Data Signals

Everton Win evidence

Scoring Patterns: Controlled Away Days

Manchester City have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Everton.

Manchester City have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Everton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Everton sit 13 in the table, while Manchester City sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Everton Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Everton2.8
    Avg corners for
    Manchester City8.67
    Everton8.4
    Avg total corners
    Manchester City12
    Everton1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Manchester City1
    Everton10.8
    Avg shots
    Manchester City18
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -1.3 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Everton1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Manchester City1.8
    Everton1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Manchester City0.8
    Everton60%
    BTTS rate
    Manchester City60%
    Everton80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Manchester City60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 31% · edge +42.5 pts
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 84%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEverton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 15% · edge +11.6 pts
    6.5
    Check odds @ 6.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Everton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Everton to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Everton

    LLDWL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    25 Apr 2026A West Ham1-2
    19 Apr 2026H Liverpool1-2
    11 Apr 2026A Brentford2-2
    21 Mar 2026H Chelsea3-0
    14 Mar 2026A Arsenal0-2

    Manchester City

    WWWDD
    Last 53W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 107W 3D 0L
    22 Apr 2026A Burnley1-0
    19 Apr 2026H Arsenal2-1
    12 Apr 2026A Chelsea3-0
    14 Mar 2026A West Ham1-1
    04 Mar 2026H Nottingham Forest2-2
    Market aligned with main pickEverton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 15% · edge +11.6 pts
    6.5
    Check odds @ 6.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    2.66
    Check odds @ 2.66
    Everton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Everton wins
    2Draws
    8Manchester City wins
    18 Oct 2025Manchester City v Everton2-0
    19 Apr 2025Everton v Manchester City0-2
    26 Dec 2024Manchester City v Everton1-1
    10 Feb 2024Manchester City v Everton2-0
    27 Dec 2023Everton v Manchester City1-3
    14 May 2023Everton v Manchester City0-3
    Market aligned with main pickEverton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 15% · edge +11.6 pts
    6.5
    Check odds @ 6.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Everton to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Everton38
    Played
    Manchester City38
    Everton1.2
    Avg goals for
    Manchester City2
    Everton1.3
    Avg goals against
    Manchester City0.9
    Everton11
    Clean sheets
    Manchester City16
    Market aligned with main pickEverton to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 15% · edge +11.6 pts
    6.5
    Check odds @ 6.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Everton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Season data supports Everton to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Manchester City7838239642
    13Everton4938131015-3
    Everton sit in position 13, while Manchester City sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Everton Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Everton Over 2.5
    60%Manchester City Over 2.5
    2.6H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Everton sit at 80% and Manchester City sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Everton v Manchester City prediction

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    Betting context

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