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Friendlies | Wed 10 Jun, 21:00

England v Costa Rica Stats

Data last updated: Tue 09 Jun 2026, 03:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

England prepare for their final World Cup warm-up against Costa Rica with a focus on defensive solidity and controlled attacking play. Under Thomas Tuchel, England have kept clean sheets in their last 12 wins, including a recent 1-0 victory over New Zealand, showcasing a disciplined defensive structure led by Declan Rice, John Stones, and Marc Guehi. Costa Rica arrive in a rebuilding phase after missing World Cup qualification and conceding 11 goals in their last five internationals, facing challenges in defensive organization. England aim to sharpen attacking fluency with the return of Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham, balancing possession control and transition threat while maintaining defensive compactness in this friendly with high stakes for squad selection and rhythm.

BT4Y best bet

England to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

  • England have kept clean sheets in their last 12 victories, highlighting defensive strength.
  • Costa Rica conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • England have not scored more than one goal in any 2026 fixture, suggesting a controlled attacking approach.
  • Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham's returns add creative width and midfield dynamism for England.
  • Previous England vs Costa Rica meeting in 2018 ended 2-0, aligning with current scoreline expectations.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors England to win with under 3.5 goals due to England's consistent defensive record of 12 straight clean sheets and a cautious attacking style that has yet to exceed one goal per game in 2026. Costa Rica's defensive frailties, conceding 11 goals recently, further support a low-scoring outcome. The price reflects a slight , as the (66.5%) exceeds the implied chance (65.2%). This selection balances England's structural solidity against Costa Rica's struggles, making a controlled victory the most probable scenario. No data limitations affect this analysis.

England Defensive Record12 consecutive clean sheets
Strong positive
England Attacking OutputNo more than 1 goal per game in 2026
Positive
Costa Rica Defensive Form11 goals conceded in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Price vs Model ChanceModel chance 66.5% vs implied 65.2%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

England's disciplined defensive setup under Tuchel and their history of clean sheets provide a solid foundation for victory. Costa Rica's recent defensive struggles and lack of World Cup qualification reduce their threat level. This match is likely to be a controlled, low-scoring affair with England edging a win while maintaining their defensive momentum.

Main risk

The main risk is an unexpected offensive surge from England's returning wide players, which could push the total goals above the under 3.5 threshold.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and controlled attacking play

“England's strength lies in their defensive organization and ability to grind out results even when attacking fluency is limited. Costa Rica's defensive issues make a clean sheet and narrow win a realistic expectation in this final warm-up.”

Key Data Signals

England to Win & Under 3.5 Goals evidence

England have kept clean sheets in their last 12 victories, highlighting defensive strength.

Costa Rica conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

England have not scored more than one goal in any 2026 fixture, suggesting a controlled attacking approach.

Bukayo Saka and Jude Bellingham's returns add creative width and midfield dynamism for England.

What To Watch In The Data

England to Win & Under 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the two previous meetings between England and Costa Rica, the average goals scored was 1 per game, with the last encounter ending 2-0 to England.
  • Recent trends show England's matches in 2026 have been low scoring with no games exceeding one goal for England, while Costa Rica's matches have seen higher goal concessions.
  • This suggests a trend towards a low-tempo, under 3.5 goals match with England likely keeping a clean sheet.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

England8.67
Avg corners for
Costa Rica2
England9.33
Avg total corners
Costa Rica6
England0.33
Avg yellow cards
Costa Rica1
England18.33
Avg shots
Costa Rica6
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 38%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
England average 8.67 corners and 18.33 shots per game, indicating territorial control and sustained pressure, while Costa Rica averages fewer corners and shots, reflecting a more defensive posture. England's low yellow card rate contrasts with Costa Rica's higher disciplinary count, suggesting England's control and composure will limit fouls and interruptions.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

England0.67
Avg goals scored
Costa Rica1
England0.67
Avg goals conceded
Costa Rica3.33
England33%
BTTS rate
Costa Rica67%
England0%
Over 2.5 goals
Costa Rica100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 38% · edge +28.6 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 62%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
England's twelve consecutive clean sheets and inability to score more than once per game in 2026 strongly suggest a low-scoring match. Costa Rica's defensive frailties increase the likelihood of England scoring but not in high volumes, supporting the under 3.5 goals and BTTS No angle as a realistic outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEngland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 91% · edge -16.4 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
England to WinBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The for England to win combined with under 3.5 goals reflect a cautious market view aligned with England's defensive consistency and restrained attacking output. The slight positive indicates the price is fair and supported by the team's recent form and tactical approach, making this a sensible selection rather than a speculative one.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

England

WLD
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
06 Jun 2026H New Zealand1-0
31 Mar 2026H Japan0-1
27 Mar 2026H Uruguay1-1

Costa Rica

LLD
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
02 Jun 2026A Colombia1-3
31 Mar 2026H Iran0-5
27 Mar 2026A Jordan2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 99% · edge -13 pts
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
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England Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
England to WinBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
England's recent form features a string of clean-sheet victories and a cautious attacking style with an average of 0.67 goals per game in 2026. Costa Rica's form is poor, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per game and scoring only 1 goal per match, reflecting defensive instability and limited offensive output, which favors England's controlled win and low-scoring outcome.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1England wins
1Draws
0Costa Rica wins
07 Jun 2018England v Costa Rica2-0
24 Jun 2014Costa Rica v England0-0
Market aligned with main pickEngland to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 88% · edge -21.2 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The head-to-head record between England and Costa Rica is limited to two matches, including a 2-0 England win in 2018 and a 0-0 draw in 2014. This small sample weakly supports England's defensive strength and ability to keep Costa Rica at bay, but current form and tactical context provide stronger evidence for the expected outcome.
Season team stats

Friendlies

England3
Played
Costa Rica3
England0.7
Avg goals for
Costa Rica1
England0.7
Avg goals against
Costa Rica3.3
England1
Clean sheets
Costa Rica0
Market aligned with main pickEngland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 91% · edge -16.4 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Load more odds for this section
England to WinBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
England's season stats reveal a strong defensive profile with zero goals conceded in their last 12 wins and a modest attacking output, consistent with under 3.5 goals. Costa Rica's season statistics highlight defensive vulnerabilities with 11 goals conceded in five matches, reinforcing the expectation of England maintaining a clean sheet and a low-scoring match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%England Over 2.5
100%Costa Rica Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the two previous meetings between England and Costa Rica, the average goals scored was 1 per game, with the last encounter ending 2-0 to England. Recent trends show England's matches in 2026 have been low scoring with no games exceeding one goal for England, while Costa Rica's matches have seen higher goal concessions. This suggests a trend towards a low-tempo, under 3.5 goals match with England likely keeping a clean sheet.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

England v Costa Rica prediction

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