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Dundee crestDundee
v
Aberdeen crestAberdeen

Premiership | Sun 17 May, 14:00

Dundee v Aberdeen Stats

Data last updated: Fri 26 Jun 2026, 01:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundee face Aberdeen in Premiership on Sun 17 May, 14:00. There is something uniquely uncomfortable about end-of-season football in the Scottish Premiership relegation group. Given Dundee's recent record of two consecutive home clean sheets and Aberdeen's low-scoring away trend, a narrow victory is likely.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Ing one of three options: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win

  • At 11/10, Dundee Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Dundee enter this clash with significant home momentum, winning their last two games at Dens Park without conceding.
  • Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Dundee.
  • Aberdeen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Dundee Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Dundee sit 2 in the table, while Aberdeen sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Ing one of three options: Home Win, Draw, or Away Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 27% (-20.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Aberdeen Draw No Bet shows a +16.8 pts edge at 2.02.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Dundee Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Dundee. Dundee enter this clash with significant home momentum, winning their last two games at Dens Park without conceding.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Negative
Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Aberdeen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Dundee enter this clash with significant home momentum, winning.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Dundee Win is the preferred angle because dundee enter this clash with significant home momentum, winning their last two games at Dens Park without conceding. Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Dundee. Dundee have already avoided the danger zone that haunted them last season, but that does not mean the pressure disappears.

Main risk

Dundee have already avoided the danger zone that haunted them last season, but that does not mean the pressure disappears.

Key Data Signals

Dundee Win evidence

Dundee enter this clash with significant home momentum, winning their last two games at Dens Park without conceding.

Aberdeen have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Dundee.

Aberdeen have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Dundee Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Dundee sit 2 in the table, while Aberdeen sit 3, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Dundee Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Dundee4
    Avg corners for
    Aberdeen4.4
    Dundee8.6
    Avg total corners
    Aberdeen7.8
    Dundee1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Aberdeen1.2
    Dundee10.2
    Avg shots
    Aberdeen11.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Premiership hubDundee v Aberdeen predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Dundee1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Aberdeen1.4
    Dundee1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Aberdeen0.8
    Dundee40%
    BTTS rate
    Aberdeen20%
    Dundee80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Aberdeen20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.2 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS No is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: Dundee concede 1.6 on average and Aberdeen score 1.4, so the clean-sheet route has a data base.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 42% · edge -14.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Dundee Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Dundee to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Dundee

    LWWLD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    12 May 2026A Kilmarnock1-3
    09 May 2026H Livingston3-0
    02 May 2026H ST Mirren1-0
    26 Apr 2026A Dundee Utd0-3
    11 Apr 2026A Kilmarnock2-2

    Aberdeen

    LWDWW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 2D 5L
    12 May 2026H ST Mirren0-2
    09 May 2026H Dundee Utd2-0
    01 May 2026A Livingston2-2
    25 Apr 2026H Kilmarnock1-0
    11 Apr 2026H Hibernian2-0
    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 42% · edge -14.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Dundee Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Dundee wins
    2Draws
    6Aberdeen wins
    21 Feb 2026Aberdeen v Dundee2-3
    06 Dec 2025Dundee v Aberdeen1-3
    05 Oct 2025Aberdeen v Dundee4-0
    15 Feb 2025Dundee v Aberdeen1-2
    09 Nov 2024Aberdeen v Dundee4-1
    28 Sep 2024Dundee v Aberdeen1-2
    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 42% · edge -14.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Dundee to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premiership

    Dundee38
    Played
    Aberdeen38
    Dundee1.1
    Avg goals for
    Aberdeen1.1
    Dundee1.6
    Avg goals against
    Aberdeen1.4
    Dundee7
    Clean sheets
    Aberdeen10
    Market aligned with main pickDundee to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 42% · edge -14.7 pts
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Load more odds for this section
    Dundee Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Season data supports Dundee to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    8Aberdeen33339618-15
    9Dundee33338916-19
    2Dundee423811918-19
    3Aberdeen403811720-15
    Dundee sit in position 2, while Aberdeen sit in position 3, so table pressure belongs in the Dundee Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Dundee Over 2.5
    20%Aberdeen Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Dundee sit at 80% and Aberdeen sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Dundee v Aberdeen prediction

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    Betting context

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