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Dundalk crestDundalk
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Drogheda United crestDrogheda United

Premier Division | Fri 10 Jul, 19:45

Dundalk v Drogheda United Stats

Data last updated: Wed 05 Aug 2026, 05:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundalk face Drogheda United in Premier Division on Fri 10 Jul, 19:45. Dundalk hold home advantage and a superior league standing, making them clear favourites against a winless Drogheda side. Dundalk have scored in ten consecutive fixtures and possess a potent attacking rhythm. Dundalk dominate possession charts at 51.2% compared to Drogheda's low 35.

BT4Y best bet

Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory

  • At 6/10, Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • The last three derbies finished level, but Dundalk's consistent scoring record and home advantage give them the edge here.
  • Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Drogheda United.
  • Dundalk have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory.
  • Dundalk sit 4 in the table, while Drogheda United sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Drogheda United. The last three derbies finished level, but Dundalk's consistent scoring record and home advantage give them the edge here.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 63% implied
Positive
Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Dundalk have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
The last three derbies finished level, but Dundalk's consistent.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Dundalk Win is the preferred angle because the last three derbies finished level, but Dundalk's consistent scoring record and home advantage give them the edge here. Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Drogheda United. That is a valuable combination: he can finish moves, but he can also tilt the game by providing the final pass.

Main risk

That is a valuable combination: he can finish moves, but he can also tilt the game by providing the final pass.

Key Data Signals

Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory evidence

The last three derbies finished level, but Dundalk's consistent scoring record and home advantage give them the edge.

Dundalk have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for Drogheda United.

Dundalk have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Dundalk Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Dundalk sit 4 in the table, while Drogheda United sit 8, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Dundalk5.75
    Avg corners for
    Drogheda United4.5
    Dundalk9.5
    Avg total corners
    Drogheda United11.25
    Dundalk1.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Drogheda United2.25
    Dundalk17.5
    Avg shots
    Drogheda United11.75
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 60% · edge +1.7 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Dundalk1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Drogheda United1
    Dundalk1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Drogheda United2.2
    Dundalk80%
    BTTS rate
    Drogheda United40%
    Dundalk80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Drogheda United40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 62% · edge +11.6 pts
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 79%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Dundalk to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Dundalk

    LLWWW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    03 Jul 2026A Shelbourne1-2
    26 Jun 2026H Waterford2-3
    19 Jun 2026A Bohemians2-1
    12 Jun 2026A Galway United1-0
    29 May 2026H Derry City2-1

    Drogheda United

    LLDLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 6L
    03 Jul 2026H Bohemians0-2
    26 Jun 2026A Derry City0-2
    19 Jun 2026H Shelbourne2-2
    12 Jun 2026A St Patrick's Athl.0-2
    29 May 2026H Waterford3-3
    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
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    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    4Dundalk wins
    4Draws
    2Drogheda United wins
    22 May 2026Drogheda United v Dundalk1-1
    20 Feb 2026Dundalk v Drogheda United1-1
    01 Nov 2024Drogheda United v Dundalk0-0
    19 Jul 2024Drogheda United v Dundalk2-1
    12 Jul 2024Dundalk v Drogheda United4-2
    06 May 2024Drogheda United v Dundalk2-1
    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Dundalk to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier Division

    Dundalk26
    Played
    Drogheda United26
    Dundalk1.5
    Avg goals for
    Drogheda United1.2
    Dundalk1.5
    Avg goals against
    Drogheda United1.7
    Dundalk5
    Clean sheets
    Drogheda United7
    Market aligned with main pickDundalk to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Dundalk Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.35
    Check odds @ 1.35
    Season data supports Dundalk to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Dundalk372691072
    8Drogheda United27266911-12
    Dundalk sit in position 4, while Drogheda United sit in position 8, so table pressure belongs in the Requiring predictions on the final outcome of the game at full-time: a home victory, a draw, or an away victory assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Dundalk Over 2.5
    40%Drogheda United Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Dundalk sit at 80% and Drogheda United sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.