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Derby crestDerby
v
West Brom crestWest Brom

Championship | Wed 09 Sep, 19:45

Derby v West Brom Stats

Data last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026, 08:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

West Brom travel to Derby in a Championship clash where their recent form and attacking threat set the tone. West Brom have accumulated 10 points from their opening fixtures, showcasing a potent offense averaging 1.6 goals per game and a solid defensive record conceding just 1.2 goals per match. Derby, sitting lower in the table with 4 points, have struggled defensively, conceding twice per game on average. The match promises open play with both sides capable of scoring, but West Brom's superior form and attacking consistency give them the edge in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

West Brom to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • West Brom have scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded 1.2, indicating balanced attacking and defensive play.
  • Derby have a higher goals conceded rate, averaging 2 per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Both teams have shown a high rate of Both Teams To Score outcomes: West Brom at 80%, Derby at 40%.
  • West Brom rank 5th in the Championship, while Derby sit 20th, reflecting contrasting season trajectories.
  • West Brom's recent form includes more points and better goal difference, supporting their winning chances with goals at both ends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors West Brom to win with both teams scoring due to their strong attacking output and Derby's defensive fragility. West Brom's average of 1.6 goals per game combined with Derby's tendency to concede twice per match creates a scenario where both sides are likely to find the net. The model's 48.7% chance for this outcome significantly exceeds the implied market probability of 32.3%, indicating solid value. is bolstered by West Brom's higher league standing and consistent offensive threat, while Derby's ability to score despite defensive issues supports the BTTS component.

West Brom attacking strength1.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Derby defensive weakness2 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Both Teams To Score rateWest Brom 80%, Derby 40%
Positive
League position gapWest Brom 5th vs Derby 20th
Positive
Model vs market chance edge48.7% vs 32.3% implied
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

West Brom's superior form and attacking consistency make them the likely winners, while Derby's defensive struggles and ability to score ensure goals at both ends. This combination reflects the tactical and statistical dynamics shaping the fixture, making West Brom to win with both teams scoring a compelling choice.

Main risk

West Ham have been productive enough to overwhelm opponents, but their defence has yet to keep anybody out; Derby have struggled for consistency yet have just shown they can punish a side.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goal-scoring dynamics

“West Brom's balanced attack and defense, coupled with Derby's defensive vulnerabilities and scoring capability, create a compelling case for a competitive match with goals at both ends and an away win.”

Key Data Signals

West Brom to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

West Brom have scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded 1.2, indicating balanced attacking and defensive play.

Derby have a higher goals conceded rate, averaging 2 per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Both teams have shown a high rate of Both Teams To Score outcomes: West Brom at 80%, Derby at 40%.

West Brom rank 5th in the Championship, while Derby sit 20th, reflecting contrasting season trajectories.

What To Watch In The Data

West Brom to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8 per game, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters historically.
  • However, current season trends show higher scoring rates, especially from West Brom, suggesting this fixture could see more goals than the historical average.
  • The trend towards open play and attacking intent supports the potential for over 2.5 goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derby1
Avg goals scored
West Brom1.6
Derby2
Avg goals conceded
West Brom1.2
Derby40%
BTTS rate
West Brom80%
Derby80%
Over 2.5 goals
West Brom60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede goals, with West Brom boasting an 80% BTTS rate and Derby 40%. Derby's defensive record and West Brom's attacking consistency suggest a match where both sides find the net is probable. The goal-scoring patterns support the BTTS element of the pick, highlighting an open game with offensive opportunities for both.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWest Brom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
West Brom to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The market price of 3.1 for West Brom to win and both teams to score offers clear value compared to the model's 48.7% probability. This positive reflects West Brom's strong attacking numbers and Derby's defensive challenges. The imply a 32.3% chance, underestimating the likelihood of this outcome given the teams' recent performances and league positions.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Derby4.8
Avg corners for
West Brom4.8
Derby11.6
Avg total corners
West Brom10.2
Derby3
Avg yellow cards
West Brom2
Derby10
Avg shots
West Brom11.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams average similar corner counts around 4.8 per game, indicating balanced territorial play and set-piece opportunities. West Brom's slightly lower yellow card average (2) compared to Derby's (3) suggests disciplined defending, but the shot data shows West Brom generate more shots and shots on target, reflecting their attacking control and pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derby

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
05 Sep 2026A West Ham0-3
01 Sep 2026A Portsmouth2-0
29 Aug 2026H Swansea0-3
22 Aug 2026H Cardiff2-2
15 Aug 2026A Charlton1-2

West Brom

WDLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
05 Sep 2026H Watford1-0
02 Sep 2026H Charlton1-1
29 Aug 2026A Middlesbrough1-3
23 Aug 2026H Burnley3-1
15 Aug 2026A Norwich2-1
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
West Brom to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
West Brom have collected 10 points with a goal difference favoring them, scoring 1.6 goals and conceding 1.2 per game, showing consistent form. Derby have struggled, earning 4 points and conceding twice per match, with a lower scoring output. West Brom's recent momentum and defensive solidity contrast with Derby's vulnerabilities, supporting the likelihood of an away win with goals from both sides.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Derby wins
4Draws
1West Brom wins
23 Jan 2026Derby v West Brom1-1
13 Sep 2025West Brom v Derby0-1
12 Aug 2025West Brom v Derby1-1
21 Apr 2025West Brom v Derby1-3
26 Dec 2024Derby v West Brom2-1
23 Aug 2022Derby v West Brom1-0
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 1.8 goals per game, reflecting relatively tight contests historically. While this provides some background, current form and season data carry more weight, as West Brom's improved attack and Derby's defensive issues suggest a more open and higher-scoring game than past meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Championship

Derby5
Played
West Brom5
Derby1
Avg goals for
West Brom1.6
Derby2
Avg goals against
West Brom1.2
Derby1
Clean sheets
West Brom1
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
West Brom to WinBet365 guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
West Brom's season stats reveal a balanced attack and defense, with 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, reflecting effective team structure. Derby's stats show defensive fragility, conceding 2 goals per game, and a lower scoring rate, indicating challenges in both attack and defense. These season-long trends reinforce the expectation of West Brom's superiority and the probability of goals at both ends.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6West Brom1053112
21Derby45113-5
West Brom's 5th place standing with 10 points highlights their strong start and competitiveness in the Championship, while Derby's 20th place with 4 points indicates struggles and pressure near the relegation zone. This disparity in league position underscores West Brom's advantage and the uphill battle Derby faces, influencing the match's likely outcome and goal dynamics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Derby Over 2.5
60%West Brom Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8 per game, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters historically. However, current season trends show higher scoring rates, especially from West Brom, suggesting this fixture could see more goals than the historical average. The trend towards open play and attacking intent supports the potential for over 2.5 goals in this match.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Derby v West Brom prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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