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Deportivo Pasto crestDeportivo Pasto
v
Once Caldas crestOnce Caldas

Primera A | Sun 20 Sep, 02:15

Deportivo Pasto v Once Caldas Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 22:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas meet in a Primera A clash where both teams have shown a tendency to find the net despite defensive vulnerabilities. Deportivo Pasto sits near the bottom of the table with only 5 points, while Once Caldas holds a mid-table position with 12 points. Both sides have scored and conceded at similar rates recently, indicating an open game with attacking intent. The fixture carries importance for Deportivo Pasto to improve their standing, while Once Caldas aims to consolidate their position, setting up a competitive encounter with goal-scoring potential on both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have a 60% rate of scoring and conceding in recent matches.
  • Deportivo Pasto averages 11.6 shots per game with 3.4 on target, showing attacking activity.
  • Once Caldas averages 17 shots per game and 5.8 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Both teams have similar corner averages (4.6) and moderate disciplinary records.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 73.3% chance for both teams to score, reflecting consistent offensive output and defensive lapses on both sides. Recent form data shows both Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas have scored in 60% of their matches, supported by above-average shot volumes and goal threat from key attackers like A. Estupiñán and D. The price offers positive value with a 17.7% edge, making BTTS a compelling selection. No data limitations affect , and the attacking profiles align well with the pick.

Model Chance73.3%
Strong positive
Recent BTTS Rate60% both teams
Positive
Shot VolumeDeportivo Pasto 11.6, Once Caldas 17 per game
Positive
Value Edge+17.7%
Strong positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities that make both teams to score a logical choice. The presence of key attackers with strong shot and goal metrics supports the expectation of goals at both ends, making this bet tactically and statistically sound.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking and defensive balance

“The attacking profiles of Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas, combined with their defensive records, create a fertile ground for both teams to score. Key players like Estupiñán and Moreno are pivotal in unlocking defenses, making BTTS a natural outcome in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have a 60% rate of scoring and conceding in recent matches.

Deportivo Pasto averages 11.6 shots per game with 3.4 on target, showing attacking activity.

Once Caldas averages 17 shots per game and 5.8 on target, indicating offensive pressure.

Head-to-head matches average 2.4 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 2.4, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
  • This suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals narrative for this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Deportivo Pasto4.6
Avg corners for
Once Caldas4.6
Deportivo Pasto9.2
Avg total corners
Once Caldas7.4
Deportivo Pasto4
Avg yellow cards
Once Caldas2.4
Deportivo Pasto11.6
Avg shots
Once Caldas17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 44% · edge +3.7 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Both teams average 4.6 corners per game, indicating balanced territorial exchanges and set-piece opportunities. Shot data shows Once Caldas generating more attempts and shots on target, while Deportivo Pasto maintains a respectable offensive presence. Disciplinary records are moderate, suggesting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Pasto1
Avg goals scored
Once Caldas1
Deportivo Pasto1.2
Avg goals conceded
Once Caldas1.2
Deportivo Pasto60%
BTTS rate
Once Caldas60%
Deportivo Pasto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Both Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas have scored in 60% of their recent matches, with average goals per game around 2.4 in their head-to-head encounters. This suggests an open game with goal-scoring opportunities for both sides, reinforced by their attacking tendencies and defensive concessions.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Deportivo Pasto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
4
Check odds @ 4
Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with a 1.8 reflecting a 55.6% implied chance, significantly below the model's 73.3% probability. This discrepancy indicates strong value in backing both teams to score, supported by consistent offensive metrics and defensive vulnerabilities in both squads.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Pasto

WDLDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
15 Sep 2026A America de Cali1-0
06 Sep 2026A Cucuta2-2
01 Sep 2026H Deportivo Pereira1-2
28 Aug 2026A Internacional de Bogota1-1
23 Aug 2026H Llaneros0-1

Once Caldas

WLLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
17 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-0
14 Sep 2026H Deportivo Cali1-2
05 Sep 2026A Chico0-2
02 Sep 2026A Fortaleza FC2-1
24 Aug 2026A Junior1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 75% · edge +1.6 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Deportivo Pasto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
4
Check odds @ 4
Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows both teams scoring in 60% of their matches, with Deportivo Pasto earning 5 points and Once Caldas 7 in their last five games. Both sides have similar goals conceded rates (1.2 per game), indicating defensive frailties that increase the chance of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Deportivo Pasto wins
1Draws
5Once Caldas wins
13 Mar 2026Once Caldas v Deportivo Pasto4-2
09 Nov 2025Once Caldas v Deportivo Pasto1-0
02 Oct 2025Once Caldas v Deportivo Pasto4-0
29 Aug 2025Deportivo Pasto v Once Caldas1-2
19 May 2025Deportivo Pasto v Once Caldas2-1
14 Oct 2024Once Caldas v Deportivo Pasto2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Pasto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 35%
4
Check odds @ 4
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The last ten meetings between Deportivo Pasto and Once Caldas have averaged 2.4 goals per game, showing a history of open contests with goals from both sides. While not overwhelmingly high-scoring, this trend supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in the upcoming match.
Season team stats

Primera A

Deportivo Pasto31
Played
Once Caldas31
Deportivo Pasto1.2
Avg goals for
Once Caldas1.5
Deportivo Pasto1.4
Avg goals against
Once Caldas1.2
Deportivo Pasto9
Clean sheets
Once Caldas5
Best odds for this sectionDeportivo Pasto to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 25% · edge +9.6 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Pasto Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Once Caldas to WinBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
Once Caldas Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 59%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Season-long statistics reveal both teams have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game, while maintaining moderate attacking output. This balance of scoring and conceding supports the BTTS selection, as both sides are capable of finding the net but also vulnerable at the back.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Deportivo Pasto341910454
5Once Caldas33198929
9Once Caldas12103341
15Deportivo Pasto810226-6
Deportivo Pasto's low ranking (19th) and Once Caldas' mid-table position (9th) reflect differing stakes, with Pasto needing points to avoid relegation pressure. This dynamic may encourage open play and goal attempts from both teams, aligning with the expectation of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
40%Once Caldas Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 2.4, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. This suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals narrative for this fixture.

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