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Deportivo Pasto crestDeportivo Pasto
v
Llaneros crestLlaneros

Primera A | Sun 23 Aug, 22:05

Deportivo Pasto v Llaneros Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 12:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Llaneros approach this Primera A fixture in strong form, currently ranked 4th with 8 points, contrasting with Deportivo Pasto's 19th place and no points. Llaneros have shown greater attacking threat and defensive solidity, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, while Deportivo Pasto struggle with 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. This match offers Llaneros an opportunity to consolidate their position with a confident away performance against a team yet to find rhythm this season.

BT4Y best bet

Llaneros to Win

  • Llaneros hold a 70% to win, priced at 4.2 , indicating strong value.
  • Llaneros average nearly double the shots and shots on target per game compared to Deportivo Pasto.
  • Deportivo Pasto have conceded over two goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Recent form heavily favors Llaneros, who have collected 8 points to Deportivo Pasto's zero.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Llaneros to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking output, and defensive stability. Llaneros average 11.8 shots and 5.6 shots on target per game, significantly higher than Deportivo Pasto's 8.6 shots and 2.6 shots on target, indicating better offensive pressure. Deportivo Pasto's defensive record of 2.2 goals conceded per game contrasts with Llaneros' 1.2, reinforcing the away side's advantage. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Shots per Game (Llaneros)11.8
Strong positive
Shots on Target per Game (Llaneros)5.6
Strong positive
Goals Conceded per Game (Deportivo Pasto)2.2
Strong positive
Recent Points (Llaneros)8
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Llaneros' superior form and attacking metrics make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain a tighter defense than Deportivo Pasto underpins this selection, suggesting they can capitalize on the home side's defensive struggles to claim three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Llaneros demonstrate clear attacking superiority and defensive resilience, positioning them well to exploit Deportivo Pasto's current vulnerabilities and secure an away win in this Primera A clash.”

Key Data Signals

Llaneros to Win evidence

Llaneros hold a 70% to win, priced at 4.2 , indicating strong value.

Llaneros average nearly double the shots and shots on target per game compared to Deportivo Pasto.

Deportivo Pasto have conceded over two goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Recent form heavily favors Llaneros, who have collected 8 points to Deportivo Pasto's zero.

What To Watch In The Data

Llaneros to Win notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderate scoring.
  • This trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for goal opportunities, aligning with the expectation of a competitive fixture with scoring chances.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Deportivo Pasto5
Avg corners for
Llaneros5
Deportivo Pasto9.2
Avg total corners
Llaneros9.25
Deportivo Pasto3
Avg yellow cards
Llaneros3.5
Deportivo Pasto8.6
Avg shots
Llaneros12.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Llaneros average slightly fewer corners than Deportivo Pasto but compensate with higher shot volume and shots on target, reflecting more direct attacking play. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, indicating a balanced discipline profile unlikely to disrupt flow.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Deportivo Pasto0.6
Avg goals scored
Llaneros1.2
Deportivo Pasto2.2
Avg goals conceded
Llaneros1.2
Deportivo Pasto40%
BTTS rate
Llaneros60%
Deportivo Pasto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Llaneros40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have modest over 2.5 goal rates at 40%, but Llaneros' higher scoring average and Deportivo Pasto's defensive frailties suggest a match with goal potential. BTTS likelihood leans slightly towards yes given Llaneros' 60% BTTS rate versus Deportivo Pasto's 40%.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLlaneros to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Llaneros Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 4.2 for a Llaneros win represent strong value given the model's 70% win probability, indicating the market underestimates their chances. This price offers a compelling opportunity to back the away side, with no warnings on price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Deportivo Pasto

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 8L
09 Aug 2026H Deportivo Cali0-2
05 Aug 2026A Millonarios0-2
01 Aug 2026H Águilas Doradas1-2
25 Jul 2026A Independiente Medellin2-3
14 May 2026H Deportes Tolima0-2

Llaneros

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
19 Aug 2026A Águilas Doradas1-1
04 Aug 2026H Fortaleza FC3-1
31 Jul 2026A Bucaramanga1-1
25 Jul 2026H Deportivo Pereira1-0
02 May 2026A Chico0-3
Market aligned with main pickLlaneros to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Llaneros Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Llaneros have collected 8 points recently, showing momentum and , while Deportivo Pasto have yet to earn points, reflecting struggles in both attack and defense. This form disparity strongly favors an away win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Deportivo Pasto wins
0Draws
1Llaneros wins
10 Feb 2026Llaneros v Deportivo Pasto0-1
23 Aug 2025Llaneros v Deportivo Pasto2-1
03 Jun 2025Deportivo Pasto v Llaneros3-0
08 Mar 2025Deportivo Pasto v Llaneros1-0
Market aligned with main pickLlaneros to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The four previous meetings between these teams have averaged two goals per game, reflecting moderate scoring and competitive balance. While not overwhelmingly supportive, this history suggests matches are not low-scoring affairs, which complements the attacking profiles seen this season.
Season team stats

Primera A

Deportivo Pasto26
Played
Llaneros24
Deportivo Pasto1.2
Avg goals for
Llaneros1
Deportivo Pasto1.5
Avg goals against
Llaneros1
Deportivo Pasto7
Clean sheets
Llaneros8
Market aligned with main pickLlaneros to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Llaneros Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Season-long stats highlight Llaneros' balanced profile with 1.2 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating competitive matches and resilience. Deportivo Pasto's 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded reveal offensive inefficiency and defensive weakness, supporting the away win case.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Deportivo Pasto341910454
14Llaneros22194105-3
2Llaneros1153204
19Deportivo Pasto05005-7
Llaneros sit comfortably in 4th place, suggesting competitive consistency and motivation to maintain position. Deportivo Pasto's 19th place and zero points underline their struggles, adding pressure and reducing ahead of this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Deportivo Pasto Over 2.5
40%Llaneros Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderate scoring. This trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for goal opportunities, aligning with the expectation of a competitive fixture with scoring chances.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.