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World Cup | Thu 25 Jun, 21:00

Curaçao v Ivory Coast Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 03:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Curaçao and Ivory Coast face off in a crucial World Cup Group E match in Philadelphia, with Ivory Coast holding a slight edge in group standings and momentum. Ivory Coast seek to assert control and respond to a narrow defeat against Germany, relying on their attacking depth and possession superiority. Curaçao, having shown defensive resilience in their recent draw with Ecuador despite heavy pressure, aim to frustrate Ivory Coast and avoid defeat to keep their hopes alive. The tactical battle will hinge on Ivory Coast's ability to maintain territorial control and Curaçao's capacity to withstand sustained pressure without conceding.

BT4Y best bet

Ivory Coast to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

  • Ivory Coast average over 100 attacks per game, more than double Curaçao's 47, indicating strong territorial control.
  • Curaçao conceded 28 shots against Ecuador but kept a clean sheet, showing defensive resilience yet vulnerability under pressure.
  • Ivory Coast have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches and kept eight clean sheets, highlighting balanced attacking and defensive strength.
  • Curaçao's low possession rates (around 25-35%) suggest they will be pinned back, supporting a low-scoring game scenario.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The pick combines Ivory Coast's clear superiority in attacking volume and possession with their consistent defensive record, making a win with under 3.5 goals plausible. Ivory Coast's ability to sustain pressure and limit Curaçao's possession reduces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. However, the current are short compared to the model's chance, indicating a price-sensitive selection. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised. The strong football rationale lies in Ivory Coast's territorial control and Curaçao's defensive posture under World Cup pressure.

Attacking VolumeIvory Coast average 100.27 attacks per game vs Curaçao's 47.09
Strong positive
Defensive SolidityIvory Coast kept 8 clean sheets in last 11 matches
Strong positive
Possession DisparityCuraçao had 25-35% possession in tournament matches
Positive
Price SensitivityMarket implied chance (66.7%) exceeds model chance (45.7%)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ivory Coast's superior attacking depth and possession control make them the likely winners in a match where Curaçao will struggle to maintain prolonged possession. The combination of Ivory Coast's scoring consistency and Curaçao's defensive fatigue suggests a controlled game with limited goals, aligning well with the selection of Ivory Coast to win with under 3.5 goals.

Main risk

The main risk is that Curaçao's defensive resilience and potential counterattacks could disrupt Ivory Coast's clean sheet ambitions, especially if Ivory Coast fail to convert early chances or lose focus in defensive transitions.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match control and scoring potential

“Ivory Coast's ability to dominate possession and create sustained pressure should wear down Curaçao's defense, making a low-scoring win the most probable outcome in this tactical encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Ivory Coast to Win & Under 3.5 Goals evidence

Ivory Coast average over 100 attacks per game, more than double Curaçao's 47, indicating strong territorial control.

Curaçao conceded 28 shots against Ecuador but kept a clean sheet, showing defensive resilience yet vulnerability under pressure.

Ivory Coast have scored in 10 of their last 11 matches and kept eight clean sheets, highlighting balanced attacking and defensive strength.

Curaçao's low possession rates (around 25-35%) suggest they will be pinned back, supporting a low-scoring game scenario.

What To Watch In The Data

Ivory Coast to Win & Under 3.5 Goals notes

  • Recent matches and H2H data show a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals for both teams, but tactical context suggests this fixture will be more restrained.
  • Ivory Coast's possession and defensive discipline combined with Curaçao's low possession and defensive posture point to a match with fewer goals than typical averages, supporting the under 3.5 goals trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Curaçao0.5
Avg goals scored
Ivory Coast1
Curaçao3.5
Avg goals conceded
Ivory Coast1
Curaçao50%
BTTS rate
Ivory Coast50%
Curaçao50%
Over 2.5 goals
Ivory Coast50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 40% · edge +18.3 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 46%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have scored in about half of their recent matches, but Ivory Coast's defensive discipline and Curaçao's low possession imply fewer scoring opportunities. The under 3.5 goals route fits the expected tactical control and defensive resilience, with a low likelihood of an open, high-scoring game.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Curaçao

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
21 Jun 2026A Ecuador0-0
14 Jun 2026A Germany1-7

Ivory Coast

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
20 Jun 2026A Germany1-2
15 Jun 2026H Ecuador1-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 84% vs implied 98% · edge -14 pts
1.02
Check odds @ 1.02
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Ivory Coast Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Ivory Coast to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Ivory Coast's recent form shows consistent scoring and defensive solidity, with three points from two matches and a strong goal difference. Curaçao's form includes a resilient draw and a heavy defeat, reflecting defensive courage but offensive challenges. This form disparity supports Ivory Coast's favored status and the expectation of a controlled, low-scoring victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Ivory Coast321010
4Curaçao12011-6
Ivory Coast sits second in the group with three points, while Curaçao is fourth with one point. The standings highlight Ivory Coast's stronger position and motivation to secure qualification, adding tactical urgency to their approach. Curaçao's need to avoid defeat may encourage defensive caution, aligning with the low-scoring forecast.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIvory Coast Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 88% · edge -14.1 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Ivory Coast to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The reflect strong favoritism towards Ivory Coast, consistent with their high attacking output and defensive reliability. However, the price is short relative to the model's probability, suggesting caution and recommending reduced stakes or waiting for better value. The market aligns with Ivory Coast's tactical advantage but prices in a margin that limits value.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Curaçao0.5
Avg corners for
Ivory Coast3
Curaçao9
Avg total corners
Ivory Coast9.5
Curaçao2.5
Avg yellow cards
Ivory Coast1.5
Curaçao9
Avg shots
Ivory Coast12
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.9 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Ivory Coast average significantly more corners and shots than Curaçao, indicating sustained pressure and attacking intent. Curaçao's higher fouling and tackling rates reflect their defensive workload, while Ivory Coast's cleaner possession and fewer cards suggest controlled aggression. This dynamic supports Ivory Coast's territorial control and a game shaped by pressure and set-piece opportunities.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Curaçao wins
0Draws
0Ivory Coast wins
Market aligned with main pickIvory Coast to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 88% · edge -21.9 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
No previous meetings exist between these teams, so historical data offers limited insight. The focus shifts to current form, tactical setups, and statistical profiles, which favor Ivory Coast's control and scoring potential while highlighting Curaçao's defensive resilience under pressure.
Season team stats

World Cup

Curaçao2
Played
Ivory Coast2
Curaçao0.5
Avg goals for
Ivory Coast1
Curaçao3.5
Avg goals against
Ivory Coast1
Curaçao1
Clean sheets
Ivory Coast1
Market aligned with main pickIvory Coast Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 88% · edge -14.1 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Ivory Coast to WinBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Season-long data underline Ivory Coast's balanced profile, averaging over two goals per game while conceding less than one, and maintaining multiple clean sheets. Curaçao's lower possession and defensive metrics indicate a reactive style, reinforcing the likelihood of Ivory Coast controlling the match tempo and limiting scoring chances.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Curaçao Over 2.5
50%Ivory Coast Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent matches and H2H data show a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals for both teams, but tactical context suggests this fixture will be more restrained. Ivory Coast's possession and defensive discipline combined with Curaçao's low possession and defensive posture point to a match with fewer goals than typical averages, supporting the under 3.5 goals trend.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Curaçao v Ivory Coast prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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