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Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
v
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

Premier League | Sun 11 Oct, 14:00

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 14:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nottingham Forest hosts Crystal Palace at the City Ground, where Forest have regained momentum under Sean Dyche, remaining unbeaten in their last three league matches including a 2-0 win at Brentford. Forest’s possession control and passing accuracy suggest they will control the tempo in this fixture. Crystal Palace, despite recent poor results with four losses in six games, remain a threat with strong aerial ability, which could exploit Forest's set-piece vulnerabilities. The match promises a tactical battle between Forest's disciplined structure and Palace's physicality, with home advantage giving Forest the edge.

BT4Y best bet

Nottingham Forest Win

  • Nottingham Forest unbeaten in last three league games, including a 2-0 away win at Brentford
  • Forest leads possession metrics with 48.9% compared to Palace's 43.0%, indicating tempo control
  • Crystal Palace has superior aerial duels won per game (18.7) versus Forest (14.4), a key attacking weapon
  • Forest’s disciplined defensive structure and home advantage provide a solid foundation for victory

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Nottingham Forest to win with a 48.2% chance, reflecting their recent unbeaten run and tactical control at home. Forest’s possession superiority and passing accuracy underpin their ability to dictate play, while Palace’s recent slump and defensive frailties on set-pieces reduce their winning probability. The data quality is strong, supporting a confident selection without price warnings.

Recent FormForest unbeaten last 3 league games
Strong positive
Possession & PassingForest 48.9% possession, higher pass accuracy
Positive
Aerial DuelsPalace stronger aerially but Forest vulnerable on set-pieces
Neutral
Home AdvantageForest at City Ground with strong home form
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Nottingham Forest’s recent form and tactical discipline under Sean Dyche make them the favored side at the City Ground. Their ability to control possession and tempo contrasts with Crystal Palace’s struggles, despite Palace’s aerial threat. Forest’s home advantage and momentum provide a solid foundation for victory in this closely contested Premier League fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form analysis

“Forest’s regained composure and possession control at home create a clear tactical edge, while Palace’s aerial prowess offers a potential counterbalance. This match hinges on whether Forest can neutralize set-piece threats and maintain their recent solidity.”

Key Data Signals

Nottingham Forest Win evidence

Nottingham Forest unbeaten in last three league games, including a 2-0 away win at Brentford

Forest leads possession metrics with 48.9% compared to Palace's 43.0%, indicating tempo control

Crystal Palace has superior aerial duels won per game (18.7) versus Forest (14.4), a key attacking weapon

Forest’s disciplined defensive structure and home advantage provide a solid foundation for victory

What To Watch In The Data

Nottingham Forest Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Palace’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Forest’s 40%, suggesting Palace’s games tend to be more open and higher scoring.
  • This trend points to a tactical contest where Forest’s defensive discipline will be tested against Palace’s attacking intent.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crystal Palace1.2
Avg goals scored
Nottingham Forest0.8
Crystal Palace2.2
Avg goals conceded
Nottingham Forest1
Crystal Palace60%
BTTS rate
Nottingham Forest40%
Crystal Palace60%
Over 2.5 goals
Nottingham Forest40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 52% · edge +4.7 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Goal and BTTS trends show Crystal Palace averaging 1.2 goals scored but conceding 2.2 per game, with a 60% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rate, suggesting open games. Forest averages fewer goals scored (0.8) and concedes less (1.0), with lower BTTS and over 2.5 rates, indicating a more controlled defensive approach. This contrast suggests a tactical battle between Palace’s attacking intent and Forest’s defensive discipline.

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Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forestcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crystal Palace

DLWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Leeds0-0
12 Sep 2026H Ipswich2-3
05 Sep 2026A Fulham3-2
28 Aug 2026H Manchester City1-4
22 Aug 2026A Everton0-2

Nottingham Forest

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026H Coventry0-1
12 Sep 2026A Aston Villa2-1
05 Sep 2026H Tottenham0-0
29 Aug 2026A Liverpool2-2
22 Aug 2026H Leeds0-1
Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 39% · edge +9 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Nottingham Forest’s unbeaten run in their last three league matches, including a convincing 2-0 away win, contrasts with Crystal Palace’s four losses in six games. Forest’s form suggests growing and tactical cohesion, while Palace’s struggles indicate vulnerability, especially away from home, reinforcing Forest’s winning prospects.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNottingham Forest to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 39% · edge +9 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Nottingham Forest Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 48.2% for Nottingham Forest Win sits against roughly 39.2% implied by the current price (+9 pts). Nottingham Forest have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 4 for Crystal Palace. They possess superior aerial dominance (winning 18.7 duels per game compared to Forest’s 14.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Crystal Palace Over 2.5
40%Nottingham Forest Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 1.8, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Palace’s 60% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Forest’s 40%, suggesting Palace’s games tend to be more open and higher scoring. This trend points to a tactical contest where Forest’s defensive discipline will be tested against Palace’s attacking intent.

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