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Estudiantes L.P. crestEstudiantes L.P.

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 17 Sep, 01:30

Corinthians v Estudiantes L.P. Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Libertadores clash features Corinthians hosting Estudiantes L.P. in a high-stakes encounter. Corinthians currently top the group with 11 points, while Estudiantes sit close behind on 9 points, making this a pivotal fixture for both sides' progression hopes. Estudiantes have shown solid recent form with 8 points from their last matches and a more potent attack averaging 1.2 goals per game compared to Corinthians' 0.6. The tactical battle will likely hinge on Estudiantes' ability to exploit their attacking edge and maintain defensive discipline against a Corinthians side that has struggled to score consistently.

BT4Y best bet

Estudiantes L.P. to Win

  • have a 54.9% to win with strong value at 4.75 .
  • Estudiantes average 1.2 goals per game, double Corinthians' 0.6, indicating better attacking form.
  • Corinthians have failed to score in recent matches, while Estudiantes maintain a tighter defense conceding 0.6 goals per game.
  • Estudiantes lead in shots (14 vs 11) and corners (6.4 vs 2.8), showing attacking pressure advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Estudiantes L.P. to win based on their superior recent form, attacking output, and shot volume compared to Corinthians. Estudiantes' 54.9% win probability contrasts sharply with the market's 21.1% implied chance, creating a strong value opportunity. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain defensive solidity underpins this . The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting a reliable forecast without significant sample limitations.

Model Win Probability54.9%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance21.1%
Strong positive
Goals Per Game1.2 vs 0.6
Positive
Shots Per Game14 vs 11
Positive
Defensive Concession Rate0.6 vs 0.8
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

present a compelling case to win given their recent attacking form and ability to generate more shots and corners than Corinthians. Their defensive discipline also suggests they can contain Corinthians' limited scoring threat. This combination of offensive pressure and defensive resilience makes Estudiantes the tactically and statistically stronger side for this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage

“Estudiantes' superior shot creation and defensive stability provide a clear tactical edge in this fixture, making them a strong contender despite playing away from home.”

Key Data Signals

Estudiantes L.P. to Win evidence

Have a 54.9% to win with strong value at 4.75 .

Estudiantes average 1.2 goals per game, double Corinthians' 0.6, indicating better attacking form.

Corinthians have failed to score in recent matches, while Estudiantes maintain a tighter defense conceding 0.6 goals per game.

Estudiantes lead in shots (14 vs 11) and corners (6.4 vs 2.8), showing attacking pressure advantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Estudiantes L.P. to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.33, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • Estudiantes' 20% Over 2.5 goals rate suggests occasional goal bursts, but the trend points to a controlled tempo with limited high-scoring games, aligning with a tactical, measured approach in this fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Corinthians2.8
Avg corners for
Estudiantes L.P.6.4
Corinthians9.2
Avg total corners
Estudiantes L.P.9.4
Corinthians2.2
Avg yellow cards
Estudiantes L.P.3
Corinthians11
Avg shots
Estudiantes L.P.14
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 62% · edge +3.1 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Estudiantes dominate in corners (6.4 vs 2.8) and average more shots on target (5.4 vs 4), indicating sustained attacking pressure. Corinthians' higher yellow card average (2.2 vs 3) suggests a moderately physical game, but Estudiantes' discipline and shot volume point to better control and offensive threat.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Corinthians0.6
Avg goals scored
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Corinthians0.8
Avg goals conceded
Estudiantes L.P.0.6
Corinthians40%
BTTS rate
Estudiantes L.P.40%
Corinthians0%
Over 2.5 goals
Estudiantes L.P.20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, but Estudiantes' stronger attack and Corinthians' recent scoring struggles suggest a controlled goals environment favoring a lower-scoring game. The data supports a cautious approach to BTTS, with goals likely coming from Estudiantes rather than both sides scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The for Estudiantes L.P. to win offer significant value, with the model assigning a 54.9% chance compared to the market's 21.1% implied probability. This discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive opportunity, suggesting the market underestimates Estudiantes' chances based on their recent form and attacking metrics.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Corinthians

DWDLD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 1L
10 Sep 2026A Estudiantes L.P.1-1
21 Aug 2026H Rosario Central1-0
14 Aug 2026A Rosario Central0-0
28 May 2026H Platense0-2
22 May 2026A Penarol1-1

Estudiantes L.P.

DWDWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 1L
10 Sep 2026H Corinthians1-1
19 Aug 2026A U. Catolica3-0
12 Aug 2026H U. Catolica1-1
27 May 2026H Independiente Medellin1-0
21 May 2026A Flamengo0-1
Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
have collected 8 points recently, showcasing better momentum than Corinthians, who have 6 points and a lower goal output. Estudiantes' ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity underpins their favored status, while Corinthians' recent scoring drought raises questions about their offensive effectiveness.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Corinthians wins
1Draws
1Estudiantes L.P. wins
10 Sep 2026Estudiantes L.P. v Corinthians1-1
30 Aug 2023Estudiantes L.P. v Corinthians1-0
23 Aug 2023Corinthians v Estudiantes L.P.1-0
Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 34%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
The three recent meetings between Corinthians and Estudiantes have averaged 1.33 goals per game, reflecting tight contests with limited scoring. This historical context suggests a cautious tactical battle, where defensive organization and chance conversion will be decisive, offering moderate support for Estudiantes' win given their current form and attacking edge.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Corinthians9
Played
Estudiantes L.P.9
Corinthians1.1
Avg goals for
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Corinthians0.6
Avg goals against
Estudiantes L.P.0.8
Corinthians5
Clean sheets
Estudiantes L.P.2
Market aligned with main pickEstudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
Estudiantes' season stats reveal a balanced profile with 1.2 goals scored per game and only 0.6 conceded, reflecting efficient attack and solid defense. Corinthians' lower scoring rate of 0.6 and higher concession rate of 0.8 suggest struggles in both creating and preventing goals, supporting Estudiantes' edge.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Estudiantes L.P.962311
1Corinthians1163214
Though Corinthians lead the group with 11 points, Estudiantes' close second place with 9 points keeps this fixture crucial for qualification. The standings pressure both teams, but Estudiantes' recent form and attacking metrics indicate they are well-positioned to challenge for the win despite being away.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Corinthians Over 2.5
20%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5
1.33H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.33, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. Estudiantes' 20% Over 2.5 goals rate suggests occasional goal bursts, but the trend points to a controlled tempo with limited high-scoring games, aligning with a tactical, measured approach in this fixture.

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