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LDU de Quito crestLDU de Quito
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Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 16 Sep, 23:00

LDU de Quito v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This CONMEBOL Libertadores clash features LDU de Quito hosting Palmeiras in a pivotal group-stage encounter. LDU de Quito tops the group with 12 points, just ahead of Palmeiras on 11, setting up a high-stakes battle for supremacy. Palmeiras arrives in strong form, boasting a solid defensive record and a slightly higher goal-scoring rate. Both teams have shown tactical discipline, but Palmeiras' recent away resilience and attacking depth suggest they are well-placed to challenge for victory in this intense South American fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras to Win

  • Palmeiras has a 51.9% to win, offering positive value at 2.8 .
  • LDU de Quito leads the group but Palmeiras is just one point behind, increasing stakes.
  • Palmeiras averages 18 shots and 6 on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • LDU de Quito concedes fewer goals but Palmeiras' attack is more prolific and consistent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Palmeiras to win with a 51.9% chance, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 35.7%, indicating strong value at current . Palmeiras' superior shot volume and shot accuracy, combined with their solid defensive record conceding only 0.6 goals per game, underpin this . The team’s balanced attack and defensive discipline, along with their close proximity to LDU de Quito in the standings, create a compelling case for an away win. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection.

Model Chance51.9%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance35.7%
Strong positive
Shot Volume (Palmeiras)18 per game
Positive
Goals Against (Palmeiras)0.6 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palmeiras' combination of attacking firepower and defensive resilience makes them a strong candidate for victory in this crucial Libertadores fixture. Their ability to generate more shots and maintain a low goals-against average supports the tactical expectation that they can overcome LDU de Quito's home advantage and secure the win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Palmeiras' well-rounded squad depth and consistent offensive pressure position them well to claim an away win despite LDU de Quito's home strength. Their balanced approach and shot control are key factors in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras to Win evidence

Palmeiras has a 51.9% to win, offering positive value at 2.8 .

LDU de Quito leads the group but Palmeiras is just one point behind, increasing stakes.

Palmeiras averages 18 shots and 6 on target per game, indicating offensive pressure.

LDU de Quito concedes fewer goals but Palmeiras' attack is more prolific and consistent.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras to Win notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, suggesting moderately open games.
  • Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating matches tend to be competitive with controlled tempo.
  • Palmeiras' ability to create more shots and maintain defensive discipline points to a match where goals may come from quality chances rather than sheer volume.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

LDU de Quito4.4
Avg corners for
Palmeiras7.25
LDU de Quito11.2
Avg total corners
Palmeiras10.5
LDU de Quito2.2
Avg yellow cards
Palmeiras1.75
LDU de Quito13.6
Avg shots
Palmeiras18.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Palmeiras averages more corners (5.8) and shots (18) than LDU de Quito, reflecting greater attacking territory and pressure. Discipline-wise, Palmeiras shows fewer yellow cards (1.4) than LDU de Quito (2.2), indicating a more controlled approach that could reduce fouls and interruptions, supporting sustained offensive efforts.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

LDU de Quito1.2
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.4
LDU de Quito0.8
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras0.6
LDU de Quito40%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras40%
LDU de Quito20%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 49% · edge +7.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating generally tight matches. However, Palmeiras' slightly higher goals-for average (1.4) compared to LDU de Quito (1.2) and a shared 40% BTTS rate suggest that while goals may be limited, both sides have the capability to score, making goal-scoring opportunities likely but contained.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The Palmeiras to Win market is priced attractively at 2.8, reflecting an implied chance of 35.7%, which is considerably lower than the model's 51.9% estimate. This discrepancy highlights a positive value opportunity, as Palmeiras' consistent shot creation and defensive stability suggest the market underestimates their winning potential.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

LDU de Quito

LDDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
09 Sep 2026A Palmeiras0-1
20 Aug 2026H Mirassol0-0
13 Aug 2026A Mirassol1-1
26 May 2026H Always Ready3-2
21 May 2026H Lanus2-0

Palmeiras

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 1L
09 Sep 2026H LDU de Quito1-0
19 Aug 2026A Cerro Porteno1-0
12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1
28 May 2026H Junior4-1
21 May 2026H Cerro Porteno0-1
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Palmeiras has accumulated 10 points recently, slightly behind LDU de Quito's 12, but their superior goal-scoring rate (1.4 vs 1.2) and better defensive record (0.6 goals conceded vs 0.8) indicate a team in strong competitive shape. This form suggests Palmeiras can capitalize on chances and maintain defensive solidity to secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1LDU de Quito wins
0Draws
2Palmeiras wins
09 Sep 2026Palmeiras v LDU de Quito1-0
31 Oct 2025Palmeiras v LDU de Quito4-0
24 Oct 2025LDU de Quito v Palmeiras3-0
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
The three recent encounters between these teams have averaged 2.67 goals per game, reflecting moderately competitive fixtures. While the sample is limited, Palmeiras' recent performances and tactical approach suggest they can leverage these encounters' experience to secure a positive result, though the head-to-head data alone offers only moderate support.
Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

LDU de Quito9
Played
Palmeiras9
LDU de Quito1.1
Avg goals for
Palmeiras1.4
LDU de Quito0.8
Avg goals against
Palmeiras0.7
LDU de Quito4
Clean sheets
Palmeiras3
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.8
Check odds @ 2.8
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Palmeiras' season stats reveal a balanced profile with a strong attack averaging 1.4 goals per game and a robust defense conceding only 0.6 goals. This contrasts with LDU de Quito's slightly lower scoring and higher concession rates, reinforcing Palmeiras' edge in both creating and preventing goals over the campaign.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Palmeiras1163215
1LDU de Quito1264023
The standings show LDU de Quito narrowly leading with 12 points, closely followed by Palmeiras on 11. This tight competition adds pressure and significance to the fixture, with Palmeiras motivated to claim top spot. The table context underscores the match's importance but does not decisively favor either side, emphasizing tactical and form factors.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%LDU de Quito Over 2.5
20%Palmeiras Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.67, suggesting moderately open games. Both teams have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating matches tend to be competitive with controlled tempo. Palmeiras' ability to create more shots and maintain defensive discipline points to a match where goals may come from quality chances rather than sheer volume.

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