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Chico crestChico
v
Cucuta crestCucuta

Primera A | Mon 12 Oct, 00:10

Chico v Cucuta Stats

Data last updated: Mon 12 Oct 2026, 15:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Boyacá Chicó hosts Cucuta in a Primera A clash where home form contrasts sharply with away struggles. Chicó have won three of their last five home matches, showing solid defensive organisation including a recent clean sheet, while Cucuta have managed only one win in six away fixtures despite arriving on the back of a strong 4-0 victory. This tactical mismatch sets the stage for a tight contest where Chicó's home resilience and defensive discipline could be decisive against Cucuta's improved but inconsistent attacking threat on the road.

BT4Y match pick

Chico Asian Handicap -0.25

  • Chicó have a 60% win rate in last five home matches, showing strong home form.
  • Cucuta have won only one of six away league games, highlighting travel difficulties.
  • Chicó kept a clean sheet in their last outing, emphasizing defensive solidity.
  • Cucuta's recent 4-0 win shows attacking potential but away form remains weak.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 52.4% chance for Chicó to cover the -0.25 handicap, reflecting their superior home record and Cucuta's poor away form. Chicó's defensive organisation and recent clean sheet provide a solid base, while Cucuta's away struggles and higher goals conceded support the home side's advantage. The slightly short price suggests cautious staking, but the football context justifies this selection as a balanced approach respecting the possibility of a close match.

Home Win Rate Last 5 Matches60%
Strong positive
Away Win Rate Last 6 Matches17%
Strong positive
Recent Clean Sheets Chicó1 (last match)
Positive
Goals Conceded Cucuta19 in 12 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Chicó's strong home form and defensive discipline provide a tactical edge against Cucuta's inconsistent away performances. Despite Cucuta's recent attacking surge, Chicó's ability to control the game at La Independencia and limit chances makes the Asian Handicap -0.25 a sensible pick with a good balance of risk and reward.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“Chicó's home resilience combined with Cucuta's travel struggles creates a compelling case for the home side to avoid defeat and likely edge a narrow win under the handicap market.”

Key Data Signals

Chico Asian Handicap -0.25 evidence

Chicó have a 60% win rate in last five home matches, showing strong home form.

Cucuta have won only one of six away league games, highlighting travel difficulties.

Chicó kept a clean sheet in their last outing, emphasizing defensive solidity.

Cucuta's recent 4-0 win shows attacking potential but away form remains weak.

What To Watch In The Data

Chico Asian Handicap -0.25 notes

  • The last seven head-to-head matches average 3.29 goals, indicating a moderately open game historically.
  • However, Chicó's recent low scoring and defensive focus suggest this match may trend lower in goals despite the trend, emphasizing a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chico1.2
Avg goals scored
Cucuta1.8
Chico1.2
Avg goals conceded
Cucuta1.6
Chico40%
BTTS rate
Cucuta60%
Chico80%
Over 2.5 goals
Cucuta100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 88% vs implied 74% · edge +14.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams to score is less likely given Chicó's recent clean sheet and Cucuta's defensive vulnerabilities on the road. The low scoring tendency of Chicó and Cucuta's inconsistent away attack support an under 3.5 goals outcome with BTTS No as a plausible scenario.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickChico to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 50% · edge -9.5 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Chico Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 52.4% for Chico Asian Handicap -0.25 sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (-3.2 pts). 60%: Boyacá Chicó have won three of their last five home matches.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chico

DWLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
03 Oct 2026A Deportes Tolima0-0
26 Sep 2026H Deportivo Pasto3-0
19 Sep 2026A Millonarios0-3
16 Sep 2026H Alianza Valledupar1-2
13 Sep 2026H Independiente Medellin2-1

Cucuta

WWLLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
04 Oct 2026H Deportivo Pereira4-0
27 Sep 2026H Llaneros2-1
20 Sep 2026A Deportivo Cali0-3
14 Sep 2026H Millonarios1-2
06 Sep 2026H Deportivo Pasto2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 77% · edge -7.2 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Chico to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
2
Check odds @ 2
Chico Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Chicó's recent form shows a solid 7 points from the last five matches with a strong defensive display, including a clean sheet. Cucuta also earned 7 points but their away form remains poor, with only one win in six away games, highlighting Chicó's home advantage as a critical factor.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Chico Over 2.5
100%Cucuta Over 2.5
3.29H2H avg goals
The last seven head-to-head matches average 3.29 goals, indicating a moderately open game historically. However, Chicó's recent low scoring and defensive focus suggest this match may trend lower in goals despite the trend, emphasizing a tactical battle rather than a high-scoring affair.

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