Football Stats Hub

Cheltenham crestCheltenham
v
Exeter City crestExeter City

EFL Trophy | Tue 22 Sep, 19:00

Cheltenham v Exeter City Stats

Data last updated: Mon 21 Sep 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This EFL Trophy clash features Cheltenham hosting Exeter City on a Tuesday evening. Exeter City arrive with recent momentum, having secured a win in their last outing and showing a solid defensive record with no goals conceded recently. Cheltenham's data is limited, but their early form suggests challenges in attack and defense. Exeter City's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and efficient finishing, making them favorites in this contest despite the neutral venue and cup unpredictability.

BT4Y match pick

Exeter City to Win

  • Exeter City has a 68.7% to win, with offering strong value at 2.45.
  • Exeter City’s recent form includes a clean sheet and 2 goals scored, highlighting defensive solidity and attacking efficiency.
  • Exeter City averages 17 shots and 5 shots on target per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure.
  • Cheltenham’s limited data and weaker recent form suggest challenges in matching Exeter’s quality and consistency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Exeter City’s strong of 68.7% reflects their recent form and superior attacking and defensive metrics. Their average of 17 shots per game and solid defensive record underpin in a win. Cheltenham’s limited data and early struggles reduce their expected competitiveness. The at 2.45 provide positive value, making Exeter City to win a compelling selection. The thinner Cheltenham data means line-ups and tactical adjustments could influence the outcome, so monitoring team news is advisable.

Model Win Probability68.7%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance40.8%
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormExeter City clean sheet in last match
Positive
Attacking PressureExeter averages 17 shots/game
Strong positive
Data QualityLimited Cheltenham data
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Exeter City’s recent defensive solidity combined with their high shot volume suggests they can control the match tempo and create scoring opportunities. Cheltenham’s early season form and limited data imply they may struggle to contain Exeter’s attack, making Exeter City to win a tactically and statistically sound pick for this EFL Trophy fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Exeter City’s blend of defensive discipline and offensive volume makes them a strong candidate to secure victory, especially given Cheltenham’s limited early-season data and form challenges.”

Key Data Signals

Exeter City to Win evidence

Exeter City has a 68.7% to win, with offering strong value at 2.45.

Exeter City’s recent form includes a clean sheet and 2 goals scored, highlighting defensive solidity and attacking efficiency.

Exeter City averages 17 shots and 5 shots on target per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure.

Cheltenham’s limited data and weaker recent form suggest challenges in matching Exeter’s quality and consistency.

What To Watch In The Data

Exeter City to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • However, Exeter City’s recent defensive form and controlled attacking style suggest this match may trend towards fewer goals, with a focus on tactical discipline and efficient chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cheltenham-
Avg goals scored
Exeter City2
Cheltenham-
Avg goals conceded
Exeter City0
Cheltenham-
BTTS rate
Exeter City0%
Cheltenham-
Over 2.5 goals
Exeter City0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Exeter City’s recent matches show a tendency for low BTTS rates and controlled goal scoring, with a clean sheet in the last game and 2 goals scored. Cheltenham’s limited scoring data prevents firm conclusions, but Exeter’s defensive strength suggests a match with fewer goals and a focus on efficient finishing.
Season team stats

EFL Trophy

Cheltenham0
Played
Exeter City1
Cheltenham-
Avg goals for
Exeter City2
Cheltenham-
Avg goals against
Exeter City0
Cheltenham-
Clean sheets
Exeter City1
Market aligned with main pickExeter City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 41% · edge -1.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Exeter City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Exeter City’s season stats reveal a strong attacking output with high shot volumes and a solid defensive record, supporting their likelihood to win. Cheltenham’s thinner data and lower attacking metrics suggest they may struggle to match Exeter’s season-long performance levels in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cheltenham

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cheltenham yet.

Exeter City

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
08 Sep 2026H Tottenham Hotspur U212-0
Market aligned with main pickExeter City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 41% · edge -1.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Exeter City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Exeter City’s recent form includes a clean sheet and a 2-0 victory, highlighting defensive resilience and attacking efficiency. Cheltenham’s form is less clear due to limited data, but early signs suggest they have yet to secure points, indicating a momentum advantage for Exeter City.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickExeter City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 41% · edge -1.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Exeter City Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The current of 2.45 for Exeter City to win represent significant value compared to the model’s 68.7% win probability. This positive indicates the market may be underestimating Exeter’s chances, making the selection price-sensitive and attractive for standard stakes.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Cheltenham wins
2Draws
3Exeter City wins
13 Aug 2025Cheltenham v Exeter City2-0
01 Apr 2024Cheltenham v Exeter City1-2
16 Sep 2023Exeter City v Cheltenham1-0
18 Mar 2023Cheltenham v Exeter City3-1
20 Aug 2022Exeter City v Cheltenham0-1
09 Aug 2022Cheltenham v Exeter City0-7
Market aligned with main pickExeter City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 41% · edge -1.4 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The ten previous encounters between Cheltenham and Exeter City have averaged 3.1 goals per match, showing a history of open games. However, recent defensive improvements by Exeter City and Cheltenham’s early season struggles reduce the direct predictive value of these past results, making current form and tactical context more relevant.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Cheltenham Over 2.5
0%Exeter City Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings between these teams, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. However, Exeter City’s recent defensive form and controlled attacking style suggest this match may trend towards fewer goals, with a focus on tactical discipline and efficient chances.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.