Football Stats Hub

Cagliari crestCagliari
v
Arezzo crestArezzo

Coppa Italia | Fri 14 Aug, 17:30

Cagliari v Arezzo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 13 Aug 2026, 06:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Coppa Italia fixture features Cagliari hosting Arezzo in a match where Arezzo arrives with recent momentum, having secured a win and kept a clean sheet in their last outing. Cagliari's data is limited, adding uncertainty to their form and defensive solidity. Arezzo's tactical setup and recent defensive discipline suggest they could exploit Cagliari's vulnerabilities. The match carries significance as both teams seek progression, with Arezzo's and sharper recent performances setting an intriguing dynamic for this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Arezzo to Win

  • Arezzo won their last match and kept a clean sheet, showing defensive strength.
  • Cagliari's recent data is limited, creating uncertainty about their current form.
  • Arezzo's to win is high at 68.7%, indicating strong .
  • The price for Arezzo to win offers significant value compared to the implied chance.
  • Arezzo's defensive discipline and recent form suggest they can control the match tempo.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Arezzo to win with a 68.7% chance, reflecting their recent clean sheet and victory, which demonstrate solid defensive and offensive form. Despite limited data on Cagliari, Arezzo's consistent defensive performances and tactical discipline create a clear football read for an away win. The price offers positive value, reinforcing the selection as a sensible bet. The thinner sample for Cagliari means that line-ups and tactical adjustments could influence the outcome, so monitoring pre-match news is advisable.

Model Win Probability68.7%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance12.5%
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormClean sheet in last match
Positive
Data QualityLimited data for Cagliari
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Arezzo's recent defensive solidity and winning momentum provide a tactical edge in this Coppa Italia clash. Their ability to maintain clean sheets combined with effective counter-attacking suggests they can capitalize on Cagliari's uncertain form. This blend of form and tactical discipline makes Arezzo a compelling choice for the win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Arezzo

“Arezzo's disciplined defensive structure and recent on the road position them well to upset Cagliari, whose current form and lineup remain unclear. This match could hinge on Arezzo's ability to control tempo and exploit defensive gaps.”

Key Data Signals

Arezzo to Win evidence

Arezzo won their last match and kept a clean sheet, showing defensive strength.

Cagliari's recent data is limited, creating uncertainty about their current form.

Arezzo's to win is high at 68.7%, indicating strong .

The price for Arezzo to win offers significant value compared to the implied chance.

What To Watch In The Data

Arezzo to Win notes

  • Recent trends in similar fixtures suggest that matches involving Arezzo often feature fewer goals, with a strong emphasis on defensive organization.
  • Over the last five matches, low goal totals and clean sheets have been common, indicating a tempo favoring controlled, tactical play rather than open attacking exchanges.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cagliari-
Avg goals scored
Arezzo2
Cagliari-
Avg goals conceded
Arezzo0
Cagliari-
BTTS rate
Arezzo0%
Cagliari-
Over 2.5 goals
Arezzo0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Arezzo's recent matches show a tendency towards low-scoring outcomes with clean sheets, indicating a defensive approach that limits goals conceded. The lack of BTTS in their recent form suggests a disciplined defensive setup, which may suppress goal totals in this fixture.
Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Cagliari0
Played
Arezzo1
Cagliari0
Avg goals for
Arezzo2
Cagliari0
Avg goals against
Arezzo0
Cagliari0
Clean sheets
Arezzo1
Market aligned with main pickArezzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
Load more odds for this section
Arezzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Season-long defensive statistics for Arezzo indicate a team capable of maintaining clean sheets and controlling matches defensively. Their scoring record complements this, showing efficiency rather than volume, which supports a strategy focused on securing narrow victories.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cagliari

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Cagliari yet.

Arezzo

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
09 Aug 2026H Union Brescia2-0
Market aligned with main pickArezzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Arezzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Arezzo's recent form includes a win and a clean sheet, reflecting strong defensive organization and effective attacking execution. Cagliari's lack of recent data adds uncertainty, but Arezzo's momentum and provide a clear advantage heading into this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickArezzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
Load more odds for this section
Arezzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.8
Check odds @ 4.8
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The for Arezzo to win are priced attractively given the model's 68.7% win probability, creating a strong value opportunity. The market underestimates Arezzo's chances, likely due to Cagliari's home status and limited data. This discrepancy highlights a price-sensitive angle worth considering with standard stake guidance.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Cagliari wins
0Draws
0Arezzo wins
Market aligned with main pickArezzo to WinBet365 guide price · Model 28% vs implied 13% · edge +15 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
There is no previous head-to-head data between Cagliari and Arezzo, limiting direct historical insight. This absence places greater emphasis on current form, tactical setups, and recent performances to assess likely outcomes.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Cagliari Over 2.5
0%Arezzo Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends in similar fixtures suggest that matches involving Arezzo often feature fewer goals, with a strong emphasis on defensive organization. Over the last five matches, low goal totals and clean sheets have been common, indicating a tempo favoring controlled, tactical play rather than open attacking exchanges.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.