Football Stats Hub

Brighton crestBrighton
v
Leeds crestLeeds

Premier League | Sat 05 Sep, 15:00

Brighton v Leeds Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brighton host Leeds at the Amex Stadium with Brighton showcasing a potent attacking form, having scored eight goals across two home matches this season. Leeds arrive unbeaten but with limited attacking threat, managing only two shots on target in their recent draw. Historical control at home against Leeds, including seven wins in eight meetings, adds to Brighton's . Despite defensive vulnerabilities highlighted by conceding four goals at Chelsea, Brighton's home clean sheets and Leeds' ongoing goal drought at the Amex set a compelling stage for a Brighton victory.

BT4Y match pick

Brighton to Win

  • Brighton scored 8 goals in 2 home matches this season, showing strong attacking form.
  • Brighton have won 7 of their last 8 home games against Leeds at the Amex Stadium.
  • Leeds have failed to score in their last 8 visits to the Amex, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Brighton kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 home league games, showing defensive solidity at home.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Brighton's home scoring surge and historical control over Leeds at the Amex support a home win. Despite a slightly short price, the model sees Brighton's attacking pressure, led by players like Georginio Rutter, as a key factor. Leeds' low shot volume and goal drought at this venue further strengthen Brighton's chances. The model advises cautious staking due to the price sensitivity and Brighton's occasional defensive lapses, but overall the home win is the most credible outcome.

Brighton Home Attack8 goals in 2 home matches
Strong positive
Historical Home Record7 wins in last 8 vs Leeds at Amex
Strong positive
Leeds Offensive Struggles0 goals in last 8 Amex visits
Strong positive
Price SensitivityImplied chance (53.5%) slightly above model chance (50.1%)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Brighton's aggressive home attack and strong historical record against Leeds at the Amex make them the likely winners. Leeds' limited offensive threat away from home and Brighton's ability to generate sustained pressure create a tactical advantage that should secure the home side's victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Brighton's home attacking strength vs Leeds' scoring drought

“Brighton's home control and attacking depth, especially with players like Georginio Rutter, create a clear edge over Leeds, whose struggles to score at the Amex persist. This tactical mismatch underpins the home win prediction.”

Key Data Signals

Brighton to Win evidence

Brighton scored 8 goals in 2 home matches this season, showing strong attacking form.

Brighton have won 7 of their last 8 home games against Leeds at the Amex Stadium.

Leeds have failed to score in their last 8 visits to the Amex, indicating offensive struggles.

Brighton kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 3 home league games, showing defensive solidity at home.

What To Watch In The Data

Brighton to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 1.8, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Brighton's recent home matches have featured multiple goals, while Leeds' scoring drought at the Amex persists.
  • This trend suggests a moderate tempo with Brighton likely to push for goals, supporting an Over 2.5 goals possibility but with caution due to Leeds' defensive organisation.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Brighton7
Avg corners for
Leeds2
Brighton11
Avg total corners
Leeds5
Brighton3
Avg yellow cards
Leeds1
Brighton15
Avg shots
Leeds11
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Brighton averages 18 shots and 6 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Leeds' lower averages reflect limited offensive threat. Brighton's higher yellow card rate suggests aggressive play, while Leeds maintain discipline, shaping the match's physical and tactical dynamics.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brighton3.5
Avg goals scored
Leeds1
Brighton2
Avg goals conceded
Leeds0.5
Brighton50%
BTTS rate
Leeds50%
Brighton100%
Over 2.5 goals
Leeds0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Brighton's high scoring at home contrasts with Leeds' recent goal drought at the Amex, suggesting a low likelihood of both teams scoring. The data supports a BTTS No outcome with under 3.5 goals, aligning with Leeds' defensive organisation and Brighton's tendency to keep clean sheets at home.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 51% · edge -1.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Brighton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The market price for Brighton to win is slightly short, reflecting strong betting interest. While the implied chance exceeds the model's probability, Brighton's home scoring form and Leeds' struggles justify cautious . Improved would enhance value, but the current price remains reasonable given the football context.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brighton

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
30 Aug 2026A Chelsea3-4
23 Aug 2026H Aston Villa4-0

Leeds

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
30 Aug 2026H Brentford1-1
22 Aug 2026A Nottingham Forest1-0
Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 51% · edge -1.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Brighton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Brighton have won one of their last two matches, scoring 3.5 goals per game while conceding 2, reflecting an aggressive but occasionally vulnerable style. Leeds also won one of their last two but have scored fewer goals and conceded less, showing a more cautious approach. Brighton's 100% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Leeds' 0%, highlighting differing attacking outputs that favor Brighton's home win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Brighton wins
3Draws
2Leeds wins
17 May 2026Leeds v Brighton1-0
01 Nov 2025Brighton v Leeds3-0
11 Mar 2023Leeds v Brighton2-2
27 Aug 2022Brighton v Leeds1-0
15 May 2022Leeds v Brighton1-1
27 Nov 2021Brighton v Leeds0-0
Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 51% · edge -1.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The head-to-head record strongly favors Brighton at home, with seven wins in the last eight meetings at the Amex. Leeds' last eight visits have yielded no goals, highlighting a significant historical challenge for the away side. This record supports Brighton's likelihood of winning but suggests Leeds may limit the margin.
Season team stats

Premier League

Brighton2
Played
Leeds2
Brighton3.5
Avg goals for
Leeds1
Brighton2
Avg goals against
Leeds0.5
Brighton1
Clean sheets
Leeds1
Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 51% · edge -1.2 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Brighton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Brighton's season stats show a potent attack with 7 Premier League goals in two matches and clean sheets at home, supporting a strong home win case. Leeds' lower goal tally and defensive solidity away contrast with their inability to score at the Amex, reinforcing Brighton's advantage in this fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Leeds421101
9Brighton321013
Brighton and Leeds sit close in the Premier League table, ranked 9th and 8th respectively, with similar points early in the season. This proximity suggests a competitive fixture, but Brighton's home form and scoring edge provide them with a tactical and psychological advantage in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Brighton Over 2.5
0%Leeds Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 1.8, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Brighton's recent home matches have featured multiple goals, while Leeds' scoring drought at the Amex persists. This trend suggests a moderate tempo with Brighton likely to push for goals, supporting an Over 2.5 goals possibility but with caution due to Leeds' defensive organisation.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Brighton v Leeds prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

More stats pages

Ipswich v LiverpoolPremier League · Fri 04 Sep 20:00Newcastle v BournemouthPremier League · Sat 05 Sep 12:30Fulham v Crystal PalacePremier League · Sat 05 Sep 15:00Manchester City v CoventryPremier League · Sat 05 Sep 15:00

Competition and hubs

Premier League hubPremier League hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre