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Brann crestBrann
v
Valerenga crestValerenga

Eliteserien | Sun 26 Jul, 13:30

Brann v Valerenga Stats

Data last updated: Sat 25 Jul 2026, 05:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brann hosts Valerenga in a pivotal Eliteserien clash where both teams seek to shift their campaign momentum. Brann, revitalized under Eirik Horneland, have secured consecutive 2-1 wins and boast a strong home record with nine victories in their last 14 matches at Brann Stadion. Valerenga arrive after an impressive 6-1 league win but carry a troubling away record, having lost 11 of their last 15 away games. Brann's possession control and structured midfield battle contrast with Valerenga's high shot volume and attacking threat, setting the stage for a tactical contest where both sides are likely to find the net.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Brann to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 37%, above the 21% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Brann have won 9 of their last 14 home matches, showing strong home control.
  • Valerenga have lost 11 of their last 15 away games, including 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Valerenga average 16.6 shots per game while Brann score 2.0 goals per match.
  • Brann concede 1.5 goals per match, Valerenga concede 2.1 away, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
Price warning

Brann to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 37% while the model sits nearer 21% (-16.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Valerenga Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 2.68.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies a 19.5% chance for Brann to win with both teams scoring, reflecting Brann's strong home form and Valerenga's offensive potency despite defensive frailties. The price at 2.7 is short compared to the model's chance, indicating a negative . This selection is football-led, emphasizing Brann's control and Valerenga's ability to score. Reduced staking is advised due to the price sensitivity, with improvements needed in or team news for stronger value.

Brann Home Win Probability19.5%
Positive
Valerenga BTTS Likelihood60% recent BTTS rate
Positive
Price Implied Chance37%
Negative
Brann Defensive Stability1.5 goals conceded per match
Positive
Valerenga Away Defensive Weakness2.1 goals conceded per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Brann's recent home control and tactical control under Horneland provide a solid foundation for victory, while Valerenga's attacking firepower ensures they will likely score. This combination makes a Brann win with both teams scoring a logical outcome, balancing Brann's efficiency with Valerenga's offensive threat.

Main risk

Footballers are often told to take one game at a time, although their legs are rarely consulted during that conversation.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and statistical balance

“Brann's structured possession game and home advantage set the stage for a win, but Valerenga's high shot volume and set-piece threat mean both teams scoring is a realistic expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Brann to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Brann have won 9 of their last 14 home matches, showing strong home control.

Valerenga have lost 11 of their last 15 away games, including 4 consecutive defeats.

Valerenga average 16.6 shots per game while Brann score 2.0 goals per match.

Brann concede 1.5 goals per match, Valerenga concede 2.1 away, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

What To Watch In The Data

Brann to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.7, indicating a trend towards higher scoring encounters.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a strong inclination towards games with over 2.5 goals, driven by Brann's efficient attack and Valerenga's high shot volume and set-piece pressure, suggesting a lively, goal-rich contest.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Brann5.33
Avg corners for
Valerenga7.33
Brann10
Avg total corners
Valerenga11.33
Brann1.33
Avg yellow cards
Valerenga0.33
Brann11
Avg shots
Valerenga17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 67% · edge -1.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Valerenga's average of 6.8 corners per game and high shot volume of 17.6 per match indicate sustained attacking pressure, while Brann's 5.2 corners and disciplined defensive approach suggest a balanced contest with opportunities for both sides. Card averages show Brann's more aggressive style (1.6 yellows) compared to Valerenga (0.6), hinting at physical midfield battles.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Brann1.4
Avg goals scored
Valerenga2.4
Brann1.8
Avg goals conceded
Valerenga2
Brann100%
BTTS rate
Valerenga60%
Brann100%
Over 2.5 goals
Valerenga80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Both teams have shown recent scoring consistency, with Brann averaging 2.0 goals per match and Valerenga maintaining a 60% BTTS rate. Valerenga's high shot volume and set-piece deliveries increase their scoring chances despite defensive weaknesses, supporting a scenario where both sides find the net.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBrann Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 69% · edge -24 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Brann to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The current of 2.7 for Brann to win and both teams to score reflect a market that prices this outcome as more likely than the model's 19.5% chance, indicating a short price. This suggests caution and recommends reduced stakes or waiting for to drift, as the football read is strong but the price does not offer clear value.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Brann

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
18 Jul 2026A Molde2-1
12 Jul 2026H Start2-1
29 May 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF1-2
24 May 2026A Bodo/Glimt1-3
20 May 2026A Aalesund1-2

Valerenga

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
16 Jul 2026H Aalesund6-1
11 Jul 2026A Tromso0-4
29 May 2026H Kristiansund BK3-1
25 May 2026A Start0-2
16 May 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF3-2
Market aligned with main pickBrann Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 69% · edge -24 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Brann to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Brann have earned 6 points in their last matches with a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rate, showing efficient scoring and conceding patterns. Valerenga have scored more freely with 9 points and an 80% over 2.5 goals rate but concede more, highlighting their attacking strength and defensive vulnerabilities that align with the bet selection.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Brann wins
0Draws
3Valerenga wins
13 Sep 2025Brann v Valerenga3-2
03 May 2025Valerenga v Brann2-4
22 Mar 2025Brann v Valerenga2-1
27 Feb 2024Brann v Valerenga3-0
08 Oct 2023Valerenga v Brann1-2
12 Jul 2023Valerenga v Brann3-2
Market aligned with main pickBrann to WinBetUK guide price · Model 27% vs implied 58% · edge -30.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Recent head-to-head form favors Brann, who have won the last four meetings including a 3-2 victory at home. However, the overall 10-match record is balanced with Valerenga holding five wins. This recent control by Brann supports the bet on their victory, though Valerenga's capability to score remains evident from past results.
Season team stats

Eliteserien

Brann14
Played
Valerenga14
Brann2
Avg goals for
Valerenga1.6
Brann1.6
Avg goals against
Valerenga1.7
Brann1
Clean sheets
Valerenga2
Market aligned with main pickBrann Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 45% vs implied 69% · edge -24 pts
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Load more odds for this section
Brann to WinBetUK guide price · model 27%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Brann's season averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match demonstrate a balanced but effective attack and defense at home. Valerenga's 2.1 goals conceded away and 16.6 shots per game underline defensive fragility and offensive ambition, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring game with goals from both sides.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Brann19146176
9Valerenga1713526-3
Brann sits 6th with 19 points from 14 matches, narrowly ahead of 9th-placed Valerenga with 17 points from 13 games. The close standings intensify the stakes, with Brann aiming to consolidate their position and Valerenga seeking to climb, adding competitive urgency to the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Brann Over 2.5
80%Valerenga Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.7, indicating a trend towards higher scoring encounters. Both teams' recent matches show a strong inclination towards games with over 2.5 goals, driven by Brann's efficient attack and Valerenga's high shot volume and set-piece pressure, suggesting a lively, goal-rich contest.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Brann v Valerenga prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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