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Bournemouth crestBournemouth
v
Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz

UEFA Europa League | Thu 15 Oct, 20:00

Bournemouth v Sturm Graz Stats

Data last updated: Wed 04 Nov 2026, 23:06 UK time
BT4Y match pick · price watch

Requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 56%, above the 50% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 1.8, Requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Both Teams To Score (BTTS) – Yes: This selection requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time.
  • Bournemouth show a 100% BTTS rate and Sturm Graz show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Bournemouth average 2 goals scored and Sturm Graz average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.
Price warning

Requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 56% while the model sits nearer 50% (-5.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 4.5 Cards shows a +15 pts edge at 2.2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Bournemouth show a 100% BTTS rate and Sturm Graz show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Both Teams To Score (BTTS) – Yes: This selection requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Negative
Bournemouth show a 100% BTTS rate and Sturm Graz show.Visible data support
Positive
Bournemouth average 2 goals scored and Sturm Graz average 0.Visible data support
Positive
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) – Yes: This selection.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because both Teams To Score (BTTS) – Yes: This selection requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time. Bournemouth show a that shared-scoring rate rate and Sturm Graz show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. However, their European away record raises concerns.

Main risk

However, their European away record raises concerns.

Key Data Signals

Requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time evidence

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) – Yes: This selection requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at.

Bournemouth show a 100% BTTS rate and Sturm Graz show a 0% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Bournemouth average 2 goals scored and Sturm Graz average 0, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Requires Bournemouth and Sturm Graz to each score at least once during normal time notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bournemouth2
Avg goals scored
Sturm Graz0
Bournemouth1
Avg goals conceded
Sturm Graz0
Bournemouth100%
BTTS rate
Sturm Graz0%
Bournemouth100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz0%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 56% · edge -5.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS Yes does not fully support the current price: the BTTS rates are 100% for Bournemouth and 0% for Sturm Graz, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 56% · edge -5.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Sturm Graz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetfred guide price · model 15%
7
Check odds @ 7
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 10%
13
Check odds @ 13
BTTS Yes is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bournemouth

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad2-1

Sturm Graz

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
16 Sep 2026H Rennes0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
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Sturm Graz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 31%
6.4
Check odds @ 6.4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetfred guide price · model 15%
7
Check odds @ 7
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 10%
13
Check odds @ 13
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bournemouth Over 2.5
0%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bournemouth sit at 100% and Sturm Graz sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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