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Bournemouth crestBournemouth
v
Sturm Graz crestSturm Graz

UEFA Europa League | Thu 15 Oct, 20:00

Bournemouth v Sturm Graz Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 10:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bournemouth face Sturm Graz in UEFA Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 20:00. Bournemouth come in with 3 recent points and 2 goals per match, while Sturm Graz have 1 points and 0 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 1.8, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 5 per match, with Bournemouth lower at 3.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Bournemouth average 11 and Sturm Graz average 11.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 5 per match, with Bournemouth lower at 3.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Positive
Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 5 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 5 per match, with Bournemouth lower at 3. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Sturm Graz lead the corner sample at 5 per match, with Bournemouth lower at 3.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Bournemouth average 11 and Sturm Graz average 11.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bournemouth2
Avg goals scored
Sturm Graz0
Bournemouth1
Avg goals conceded
Sturm Graz0
Bournemouth100%
BTTS rate
Sturm Graz0%
Bournemouth100%
Over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 69% · edge +5.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Sturm Graz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.6
Check odds @ 6.6
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
DrawBetfred guide price · model 15%
7
Check odds @ 7
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 9%
15
Check odds @ 15
Over 8.5 Corners is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bournemouth

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad2-1

Sturm Graz

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
16 Sep 2026H Rennes0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Sturm Graz Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%
6.6
Check odds @ 6.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.03
Check odds @ 1.03
Bournemouth to WinBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Bournemouth Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
DrawBetfred guide price · model 15%
7
Check odds @ 7
Sturm Graz to WinBet365 guide price · model 9%
15
Check odds @ 15
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bournemouth Over 2.5
0%Sturm Graz Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bournemouth sit at 100% and Sturm Graz sit at 0%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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